Trump announced negotiations with Iran. What the media is writing
US President Donald Trump has announced that he has suspended attacks on Iran in order to hold direct talks with the republic. They are scheduled to begin on August 3. Against this background, oil prices have plummeted. Former Trump administration officials believe that the White House has no good options left to resolve the conflict. What the media write about the prospects for a settlement is in the Izvestia digest.
Bloomberg: Trump said that negotiations with Iran will begin on August 3.
Trump said that new negotiations with Iran will begin on the afternoon of August 3. Before that, he canceled a planned attack on the Islamic Republic, partly in response to requests from U.S. allies in the Middle East. Trump suggested that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be close, and said he would also continue to seek an end to Iran's nuclear program. The US president noted that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had informed him that he preferred the continuation of negotiations to planned strikes.
Bloomberg
"This would be the largest attack since World War II," Trump told reporters aboard the presidential plane on August 2. "We'll just see if we can make a deal." He added, "I'm not going to kill people."
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in turn, said that negotiations with Oman are at the final stage. The two countries located on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz are discussing a new route through it, but the negotiations do not address the issue of whether the strait will be closed or opened. Araghchi spokesman Esmail Bagai accused the United States of closing the waterway to shipping.
Associated Press: Oil prices fell after Trump's order to stop attacks
Oil prices plummeted on August 2 after Trump said he would order American troops to refrain from new strikes on Iran, arguing that an agreement to end hostilities in the Middle East was near. The settlement of the conflict, which has been going on for more than five months, may give oil companies the opportunity to withdraw ships from the Persian Gulf, where tankers with oil and other petroleum products were blocked during the fighting.
Associated Press
[August 2] In the evening, the price of American WTI crude oil fell by 5% to $80.79 per barrel. The price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, decreased by 5% to $83.87 per barrel. Since the beginning of the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran in late February, oil prices have fluctuated greatly, exceeding the $100 per barrel mark several times in the spring.
As the conflict continued, high oil prices affected the cost of gasoline, aviation fuel, and many other products. Motorists began to pay more at gas stations, and shoppers began to pay more for air tickets due to higher prices for aviation fuel. In some countries, fuel supplies have been depleted, leading to rationing and the periodic closure of schools and government offices.
CNN: US military asks for unconventional ideas to punish Iran
A wide group of military analysts received an e-mail message from a senior officer of the American military command. It says the command needs "new, creative and unconventional ways to put pressure on Iran and punish it." According to the source, the letter was received by analysts on July 29.
CNN
The crowdsourcing-style request, which military officials said was unusual and sent by email, is one sign of the limited, potentially unacceptable options available to Trump to force Iran to make a deal on his terms. Hoping to find an alternative, a Central Command representative began brainstorming via email to see if anyone had a better idea.
The email preceded Trump's threat to launch new strikes on Iran and then cancel them over the weekend after regional leaders intervened by calling the president and urging him to de-escalate. According to the source, Trump is considering launching "firework-like" strikes that could hit the same targets as a year ago, hoping for a symbolic victory that would allow him to withdraw from the war. However, this will not solve the problems of Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz.
Al Jazeera: Iran announces the final stage of negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz
Araghchi said that negotiations with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz are entering the "final stage." He said that in a report submitted to the Cabinet of Ministers, he described the negotiations between Tehran and Muscat as "on the way to completion." His spokesman, Bagai, clarified that Iran and Oman are close to reaching an agreement on a new sea route through the Strait of Hormuz, separate from the existing corridors.
Al Jazeera
"Now we are going to reach an understanding on a route acceptable to both sides — this is not a northern or southern route — one that respects the sovereign rights of both sides and protects our national interests and security," Bagai said in an interview with state television.
The details of the new route are not yet clear. Iran has effectively maintained control of the strait since the beginning of the war. A truce concluded in June broke down a few weeks later due to a dispute over shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and fighting resumed in July.
Politico: Iran leaves no good exit for Trump
Iran has made it clear that its price for ending hostilities is control of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a politically unacceptable prospect for the White House. But continued strikes that threaten to escalate into a larger regional war are also unacceptable. That leaves a frustrated White House with few good options, five former Trump administration officials said.
Politico
"Iran wants a fundamental political concession, which is to receive money for passage through the strait," said a former administration official who requested anonymity to speak candidly. "This will consolidate their control over the strait in diplomatic practice and customary law."
At the White House, senior administration officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, warned against making any decision that would allow Iran to control the strait. In their opinion, this will jeopardize the future ability of the United States to impose sanctions on Iran, as it will require obtaining permits from several countries to pay the fees. This will further reduce the ability of the international community to put pressure on Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. Rubio warned last week that this would set a dangerous precedent that would surely be repeated.
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