The analyst predicted the movement of bitcoin in August

Bitcoin ends July amid increased caution on the part of market participants: the cryptocurrency remains under pressure due to the lack of new macroeconomic drivers and uncertainty around industry regulation. In August, the asset may first test the level of $ 60-62 thousand, after which it will return to the level of $ 70 thousand. Andrey Poroshin, a financial analyst at Bitbanker, told Izvestia on July 31.

According to the expert, the decision of the US Federal Reserve System to maintain neutral rhetoric did not send a strong signal to the market in either direction. Inflation in the country remains above the target level, so the regulator prefers to wait for new data and return to the issue of monetary policy at the September meeting.

"Bitcoin ends July under the pressure of moderate volatility and the absence of new drivers from macroeconomics. The US Federal Reserve has not given the markets either positive or negative signals, so participants remain cautious," Poroshin said.

Currently, bitcoin is trading below the cost of mining in the United States — around $ 73-75 thousand. This range remains an important benchmark for assessing the profitability of cryptocurrency mining in the global market. At the same time, in some countries, including Russia, mining costs may be lower.

The analyst called the bankruptcy of the BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange, where retail investors actively traded futures, one of the significant events of July. According to Poroshin, this was the actual capitulation of some of the less stable market participants.

"The departure of weak hands traditionally coincides with the formation of reversal zones and a decrease in short—term pressure on the price," the expert explained.

Block whose: authorities will limit investments in "unfriendly" cryptocurrencies

The introduction of mandatory fees is being discussed for particularly risky assets — their issuers may block access to money.

The activity of retail investors also decreased in July. Many traders expect a possible decline in bitcoin to the level of $ 70 thousand and below, placing stop orders in the range of $ 60-62 thousand. According to the analyst, it is in this zone that a significant amount of liquidity is currently concentrated, which the market may test in August.

At the same time, geopolitical factors that previously could significantly affect cryptocurrencies are gradually losing their influence. The escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, according to Poroshin, no longer exerts noticeable pressure on the market — participants have adapted to the current level of uncertainty.

An additional factor remains the situation with the regulation of the crypto industry in the United States. The country's Senate did not have time to put to the vote the CLARITY Act bill, which was postponed to September. This keeps the market participants uncertain.

August is usually characterized by reduced trading activity due to the seasonal holiday period for traders and fund managers. In such conditions, market movements are more often technical in nature and can develop without sudden impulses.

According to the analyst's baseline scenario, in August, bitcoin may first test the range of $60-62 thousand to withdraw accumulated liquidity, after which it will recover to the level of $70 thousand. Stronger movements are likely in September, following new signals from the US Federal Reserve and a possible return to the CLARITY Act discussion.

Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov announced on June 16 that unqualified investors in Russia will soon be able to legally buy bitcoin, ether and popular stablecoins. In addition, the deputy minister clarified that a limit of 300 thousand rubles per year through one intermediary was proposed for non-shareholders.