The economist explained the dynamics of fruit prices at the end of the season

The cost of fresh fruit began to rise due to a decrease in harvest after the spring frosts and a seasonal reduction in supply on the market. On July 30, Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing partner of the VMT Consult agency, an economist, told Izvestia what factors influenced prices and why a noticeable decrease in the cost of products should not be expected in the near future.

According to the expert, one of the main factors was the decrease in crop volumes due to adverse weather conditions. Spring frosts have damaged the flowering of fruit trees in many regions, which has led to a reduction in the production of sweet cherries, cherries and apricots. Other weather anomalies had an additional impact, which reduced not only the quantity but also the quality of the harvested fruits. As a result, the supply on the market was lower than usual, which affected the cost of products.

"The main factors were: crop reduction due to adverse weather conditions, as well as seasonality. In the spring, part of the harvest was affected by frosts, so the supply turned out to be lower than usual," Kosareva said.

According to the expert, the market is now gradually moving out of the peak season period. As the volume of fresh fruit decreases, prices begin to increase, which is a common seasonal trend and is observed almost every year.

An increase in the cost of raw materials may also affect the prices of processed products such as jams, juices, jams and other goods. However, as Kosareva explained, such a change usually does not occur immediately, since manufacturers use previously purchased stocks of raw materials and work under concluded contracts.

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The regions where unfavorable weather occurred during the flowering period of fruit crops suffered the greatest losses from spring frosts. It was the reduction of harvest in the main producing territories that became one of the reasons for the decrease in supply on the market.

At the same time, a significant reduction in prices by the end of the season should not be expected. According to Kosareva, even under normal conditions, the cost of fresh fruit rarely drops during this period, as the supply is gradually decreasing.

This season, lower yields are putting additional pressure on prices, so the cost of fruits may remain at an elevated level as the season ends.

Economic analyst Denis Mirolyubov told the same day that a local price increase of 15-30% is expected for berries and stone fruits due to their high sensitivity to abnormal weather and increased logistics costs. There is no talk of a massive rise in the price of the entire food basket, but certain categories of goods will show a significant increase in value.

Before that, on July 17, the Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut said that a good harvest is expected in Russia this year, especially in the south of the country. Grain harvest in Russia currently amounts to more than 21 million tons. At the same time, according to her, grain harvesting is lagging by more than 2.5 million hectares due to difficult weather conditions during the sowing season: rains delayed the start of sowing operations, which, in turn, postponed the harvesting period. However, according to the minister, the southern regions will yield a good amount of harvest due to sufficient moisture.

Chairman of the Association of Omnichannel Retail Companies (ACORT) Stanislav Bogdanov reported on June 10 that in Russia over the past two weeks, the price of sweet cherries has decreased by 24%, to 610 rubles per kilogram. According to him, the trend of seasonal price reductions is relevant for all berries. As the Russian harvest arrives, the supply expands, which leads to lower prices.