Nothing can scare you: the situation on the market of new cars was called stable
Despite the difficulties with fuel, sales of new passenger cars in Russia have stabilized, according to Autostat. If it were not for the shortage of some models, the figures could have been even higher, market players say. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
An important week
Over the past week, 25,350 new passenger cars have been registered. This is 1% more than a week earlier, but almost 6% less than the sales volume in the 30th week of last year, said Sergey Tselikov, CEO of the analytical agency Autostat. According to him, this year's 30th week (from July 20 to July 26) allowed us to understand the trend of the automotive market. On the one hand, the accumulated difficulties with fuel and other negative factors, on the other — the standard weekly figures, the full number of working days and stable weather.
After a period of recovery on the 28th week (July 6-12), sales immediately decreased by 16.2%. 25.9 thousand new cars were registered, and the market returned to the average this year. The following week, the 29th, was also marked by a drop, but by a smaller 3%. Sales reached 25.1 thousand new passenger cars. Moreover, this result was 3% more than in the same period last year.
— I think that stable sales at this level, about 25 thousand per week, will continue. But the negative dynamics in relation to last year will increase. Because last year's "base" is starting to increase," said Sergey Tselikov.
Earlier, he noted that while maintaining the current pace, the July result of the car market may be slightly lower than in June, when 116.3 thousand cars were sold. The forecast of the results of the year from Autostat remains the same for the time being — 1.3–1.35 million cars. Tselikov also noted that against the background of a stable passenger car market, the LCV segment continues its downward trend, while the truck segment is "floundering at the bottom."
Demand is stable
The market players interviewed by Izvestia consider the sales level of 25,000 passenger cars per week predicted by Autostat to be realistic. In July-August, the market will move without sharp jumps — approximately in the range of 110-115 thousand new passenger cars per month, suggests Nikolai Ivanov, Rolf's new car sales director.
The company has not yet seen any reason for a noticeable decrease in customer interest. Moreover, the fuel situation is gradually returning to normal, so its impact on the market is likely to be limited, a Rolf representative said.
The stable level of demand is supported by several factors, including the relative stabilization of fuel prices and the adaptation of consumers to new conditions, Ivan Trandin, the owner of the KM/H group of companies, told Izvestia.
Fuel shortage has not affected sales of new passenger cars, says Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem.
— First of all, nothing ever happens on the short shoulder. Only if it hits you very hard and directly. Conditionally, the recycling fee will be increased tomorrow. That's where everyone ran to buy cars. Secondly, we have a general shortage of new cars. If the market was oversaturated, then we would have felt a fall, but now there is nowhere to fall. Thirdly, you can't scare our people just like that. If a person has a desire to have something of their own, such as a car, you can't kill them with these horror stories," he said.
Are you interested in new energy
At the same time, the fuel factor has increased interest in hybrids and electric vehicles. By the end of the year, the share of the NEV segment may grow to 12%, Rolf notes.
Autostat also notes a twofold increase in interest in cars that can be charged from an outlet. There is even a shortage of some models on the market.
"To reduce the waiting time, the production program has already been increased, which will allow us to increase the volume of supplies to the dealer network in the near future," the press service of the Russian brand of electric vehicles and hybrids Evolute said.
Not just gasoline
Fuel difficulties are not the only negative factor holding back the car market.
— Firstly, it is an increase in car prices, which is due to an increase in the cost of components and logistical costs. Secondly, a high key interest rate makes loans more expensive, which reduces purchasing power. Also, the lack of discounts and promotions, which were typical for previous years, reduces the attractiveness of the purchase. The shortage of cars, especially in the hybrid and electric vehicle segments, also limits consumer choice. If it weren't for this shortage, sales could be higher, as demand for such models is growing, but supply doesn't always keep up with this demand," notes Ivan Trandin.
A reduction in the key rate to 14% is unlikely to have a noticeable impact on demand in the short term, Nikolai Ivanov believes.
— The cost of borrowed funds for the client remains high, and banks do not always quickly transfer the rate reduction into real loan programs, — he believes.
How to return to growth
A set of measures is needed to return the market to growth, experts say. These include, for example, subsidized loan programs, targeted distributor promotions, trade-in, leasing offers, and bonuses. Government support, including subsidies and tax incentives, also plays an important role.
Experts have mixed views on the initiative to grant owners of new domestic cars the right to park free of charge in paid city parking lots for a year, which has already been supported by the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
— This initiative will affect a resident of Moscow who is sitting and thinking about whether to buy a new car, and a resident of a small town where paid parking will not appear in the coming years, it's neither hot nor cold. The market will not change from this. Not everyone will rush to buy new cars tomorrow. After all, people don't have the money to upgrade their cars every year," says Maxim Kadakov.
Other experts are less skeptical. This is an interesting initiative, Ivan Trandin believes. It can increase the attractiveness of domestic brands.
"However, for a real impact on the market, it is necessary that this measure be part of a broader package of incentive measures, such as tax cuts, infrastructure development and improving the quality of domestic cars," he suggests.
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