Trump in mind: why Zelensky opens a second front against Iran
A new scandal is breaking out in relations between Ukraine and Iran over the attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Representatives of the Islamic Republic have summoned the charge d'affaires of Kiev to the carpet and are threatening a crushing response. Experts attribute the escalation to Zelensky's imminent meeting with Donald Trump. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
What happened
Ukraine struck an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea on July 25. According to an official statement from Tehran, an explosion occurred as a result of the attack, one sailor was killed and another was injured. According to some reports, we are talking about the dry cargo ship "Ana", which left the port of Astrakhan with civilian cargo.
After the incident, the Iranian Foreign Ministry summoned the Charge d'affaires of Ukraine, who was handed a protest note demanding to punish those responsible for "carrying out a hostile and criminal act." The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic, Abbas Araghchi, phoned the head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, to whom he said that Tehran was waiting for a reaction to the incident from the EU.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
Iranian officials also noted that Ukraine could be hit back. "Any point from which aggression is committed against our country and territory will certainly become a legitimate target of our armed forces," said Ali Nikzad, Deputy Speaker of the Parliament. The head of the parliamentary committee on National Security, Ebrahim Azizi, noted that Ukraine "joined the list of those who miscalculated."
Experts remind that the distance between Tabriz and Kiev is about 1800 km, about the same distance from the Islamic Republic to Palestine, which is reached by Iranian drones and missiles, that is, technically, Tehran has all the possibilities for a retaliatory strike. This may include the use of the Khorramshahr-4 superheavy missile, which has a range of more than 2,000 km.
What will happen next
Ukraine confirmed the attack. Back on July 25, Vladimir Zelensky reported on long-range strikes in the Caspian Sea. "In particular, the vessels involved in the transportation of military cargo between Russia and Iran were hit," he stressed.
On July 27, the head of the Kiev regime gave an interview in which he said that Iran had allegedly attacked Ukraine a long time ago, so nothing new had happened now. According to him, Iran has been sending attack drones to Russia since the first year of its military operation, and then granted licenses for their production. "What did they do? Did they attack us? I think so. So they've already done it. The war has already begun," he said.
This is not the first escalation between Iran and Ukraine in recent times. In March of this year, after the start of the war between the United States and Israel with the Islamic Republic, Kiev began to actively intervene in the conflict. Zelensky reported at the time that, at Washington's request, Ukrainian interceptor drones and operators of unmanned systems had gone to the Middle East to protect American military bases.
The media wrote at the time that this would give Kiev a lever of pressure on the American side, with which it could achieve additional military supplies. Later, however, US President Donald Trump denied Zelensky's statements, noting that the US did not need Ukrainian help. According to him, Americans know more about drones than anyone else, and also have the best technology in this area.
The Iranians, however, took Zelensky's words as seriously as possible. Ebrahim Azizi warned that if Ukraine participates in the conflict, it will suffer serious losses. "By supporting the Israeli regime, the collapsed Ukraine actually became involved in the war and, according to the UN Charter, turned its entire territory into a legitimate target for Iran," he said.
At the same time, in March, Ukraine's attempts to participate in the American operation looked partly logical — Kiev was trying to show Washington its usefulness, as well as remain at the top of the global information agenda. Moreover, most experts agreed at the time that Tehran would not withstand the pressure of force, meaning that Ukraine expected to be among the winners with minimal investments.
There are a lot more questions and versions now. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Kiev is acting at the behest of Israel, which seeks to draw Europe into the Middle East war. At the same time, the diplomat stressed that he had discussed the incident with Kaya Kallas and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. "I made it clear that what the parasite from Kiev did cannot go unanswered," he noted.
According to another version, Zelensky is trying to create a favorable background for negotiations with Donald Trump by hitting an Iranian ship. It is known that the head of the Kiev regime is currently in London, where he is supposed to talk with the new British Prime Minister Andy Burnham. He will then travel to Washington, where he will meet with the American president on July 29.
Interestingly, the United States itself has stopped bombing Iran in recent days. It is reported that Washington fears a deepening economic and energy crisis, as well as worries about the growing shortage of missiles for air defense systems, which makes it increasingly difficult to defend American military bases in the Middle East. Ukraine is calling fire on itself in such conditions.
What the experts say
Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, an Iranian scientist, explains that Tehran has the technical capabilities to strike Ukraine.
— The Islamic Republic has missiles with a range of about 2,000 km. This is enough to reach the territory of Ukraine, including Kiev. The question, however, is the choice of goals. Iran does not have its own satellite system, but Tehran's allies can help in this matter," he notes.
The expert believes that Iran is unlikely to carry out such a strike.
— The entire European Union supports Ukraine, while the EU remains aloof and takes a cautious position in the Middle East conflict. Of course, Tehran would not want Trump and [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu to receive additional support. In this regard, I think Iran will not take active actions against Kiev yet," he believes.
Andrey Koshkin, head of the Department of Political Science and Sociology at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, recalls that Zelensky is going to the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham (listed on the Russian list of terrorists and extremists) in the United States, where he is supposed to meet with Trump.
— It is clear that he wants to gain the favor of the American president. He has recently become more benevolent towards Ukraine. Kiev, apparently, wants even more friendliness. To do this, they hit an Iranian civilian vessel, and they also directly announced this strike. Let's see how events will develop further. I think this attack could go sideways for the Ukrainian leadership," he argues.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
