The expert spoke about the oil prospects this week

Ilya Rusyaev, a business consultant and founder of the Rusyaev Club community, told Izvestia on July 27 about the situation on the oil market and the prospects for quotations this week.

"Last week, for the first time since the end of May, Brent broke the $100 per barrel mark, reaching a peak of $102. Since the beginning of July, the price of the brand has increased by about 31%. The increase in quotations occurred against the background of fear of shortages caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the daily US strikes on Iran for 13 days. However, on July 24, the situation changed: the strikes stopped, and a delegation from Oman arrived in Tehran to negotiate the unblocking of the strait. As a result, Brent fell by 6% to $86.8 per barrel, while WTI dropped below $84," the expert said.

Rusyaev explained that the market is currently removing the military surcharge from the price, and a further decline in Brent prices will depend on one key event: if Oman and Iran open the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil consumption passes, the price may return to the range of $ 78-82 per barrel. In the event of a breakdown in negotiations or resumption of strikes, the premium will return just as sharply, and the target may rise to $100 per barrel again.

Black in gold: Brent crude oil price is forecast at $100-120 per barrel

Under what conditions is this possible and what benefits does it promise to the Russian budget?

He added that the base scenario for the week assumes a gradual decline in Brent to the range of $82-86 with cautious trading. With such quotes, Russian exporters maintain a high level of revenue, even taking into account the Urals discount. The expert expects sharp movements in both directions mainly based on news from the Middle East, while weekly stock statistics now play a secondary role.

Global oil prices showed a significant drop at the beginning of the trading session. The price of the Brent brand on the stock exchanges on July 27 dropped to $86.8 per barrel. This is 5.24% lower than at the close of the previous day, according to the platform data. Investing.com .