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- With things at the entrance: the EU has offered Ukraine a new option for European integration
With things at the entrance: the EU has offered Ukraine a new option for European integration
The European Union is changing Ukraine's place in the geopolitical arena: the country is no longer just a recipient of financial and military assistance. According to a new report by the European Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), Brussels views Kiev as a future element of the pan-European security system and an important resource for strengthening its own economic and military-industrial capabilities. However, the implementation of these plans will require not only hundreds of billions of euros, but also the resumption of suspended American participation, without which the European strategy risks facing serious restrictions. What is the essence of the "cooperation" between Ukraine and the EU and why the United States remains an important element in this chain — in the material of Izvestia.
The money Gap
The European Institute for Security Studies has published a 34-page report suggesting new ways to support Kiev. The document also talks about possible ways to contain Russia, limit China's influence, and attract American funding flows to Ukraine.
The essence of the problem lies in the fact that Kiev no longer has enough budgets provided by Western countries. According to the report, as of June 2026, European states had paid Ukraine about €211.3 billion, and the United States — €120 billion. Moreover, in addition to the €90 billion approved as part of the loan package in April, it is proposed to "reserve" another €100 billion for the period from 2028 to 2034.
However, according to estimates by the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations, in the next 10 years Kiev may need an amount approximately equal to €515 billion. Consequently, according to EUISS, EU countries will have to allocate over €20 billion annually through government alone, not counting investments and other types of commercial support.
Under favorable conditions, up to 40% of these costs could be taken over by a private business, but only after reforms are carried out on the territory of Ukraine, the document says. And, most interestingly, each euro allocated to Kiev will have to solve several key tasks: to rebuild the country, strengthen the EU economy, create markets for Western companies and reduce the influence of Moscow and Beijing. However, in order for the Kiev regime to accept such conditions, the European Union needs to press the main lever of pressure — Ukraine's European integration.
Analysts at the European Institute for Security Studies write that in the current conditions, Europe is able to regulate the pace of reforms in Ukraine by "shifting the focus." In particular, the authors of the material suggest moving from promises of specific deadlines that can give Kiev at least some guarantees about joining the European Union to "integration stages" that should bring "visible benefits" to the union. In fact, this means the following: As soon as Ukraine feels that the country is about to become an EU member, its motivation to change policy to suit the interests of European elites will naturally decrease. Since Brussels does not want such a development, its only option is "functional integration": Kiev's consolidation in the pan—European economic and security space without full inclusion in the association.
— In fact, the document refers to the long-term military and political integration of Ukraine into the European security area without granting it formal membership in the EU — such a step would create serious political and institutional risks for the association itself. Moreover, this process cannot be considered as a promising scenario for the future — many of its elements are already being implemented in practice through the joint production of weapons, the development of defense cooperation and the inclusion of Ukrainian military potential in the strategic planning of European security," Sergei Shein, senior researcher at the Central Committee for Strategic Studies, said in a conversation with Izvestia.
The institute's experts call the development of the military-industrial complex (MIC) of Ukraine one of the main elements of "integration" and a key way to restore the state. Here we are talking about combining European capital and the combat experience of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to create a unified security architecture. Of course, it is planned to do this through enterprises registered in the EU. The second most important priority is the unification of the European and Ukrainian electricity markets, which is expected to be implemented by 2027.
It is also interesting that among the resources of "European integration" EUISS separately identifies approximately 5 million Ukrainian citizens currently residing in the EU. In the text of the document, they appear as a "strategic democratic electorate" capable of showing the results expected by European officials, for example, in the next presidential election in the country.
Under the auspices of the USA
In addition to plans to include Ukraine in the European security structure, the authors of the report talk about attracting multinational companies to enrich the economy. Currently, large corporations avoid cooperation with Kiev due to corruption, labor shortages, differences between the security of individual regions, and other reasons. However, according to the Big on Board initiative, as soon as Ukraine becomes safe and a "reliable business environment" appears, international companies will nevertheless decide to enter this market. However, the authors of the project do not believe that even after the establishment of peace and the change of the current Kiev regime, the risk factors will disappear.
To ensure the interests of the West, analysts also propose creating a "Peace and Prosperity Pact" under the auspices of the G7, with the participation of the EU, the United States, Japan, Norway, Ukraine and global financial institutions. The purpose of the document is to simplify as much as possible the coordination and control over the fulfillment of conditions for various projects and reforms.
Special attention is paid here to the USA. The return of Donald Trump to the White House has seriously complicated the situation with the allocation of budgets to Ukraine. The fact is that although the 47th president of the United States stopped financing the armed conflict directly back in November last year, the United States still supports Kiev. For example, Washington sells weapons to NATO countries for further transfer to Ukraine under the PURL assistance program (List of priority requirements of Ukraine). In June, it became known that as part of the initiative, the states supporting Kiev would allocate $1 billion for arms supplies. In total, about $7 billion has been spent since the beginning of the program.
In general, after the gradual withdrawal of the United States from affairs, the EU increased military aid to Ukraine by 67%, and humanitarian aid by 59%. The largest volumes are provided by Germany, Great Britain, Norway, Denmark and other EU countries. However, we see that it is becoming increasingly difficult for the "coalition of the willing" to support Ukraine on their own, especially if we look at the plans of the European elites to develop the military-industrial complex and rearm the association by 2030.
The authors of the material do not hide the fact that later the EU and the USA will compete for Ukrainian contracts. But now the main task is to attract and keep the attention of Americans in the Kiev direction in order to have the means to conduct protracted military operations and subsequently to rebuild the country after the end of the conflict.
— European countries are interested in maintaining the American presence in Ukraine, considering the United States as an additional deterrent to Russia and a guarantee that the conflict will not resume. However, so far there are no signs that big business is ready to actively invest in the Ukrainian economy. Previous projects, such as the experience of BlackRock Corporation, have shown limited profitability, and promising assets have already been largely distributed among existing players. High military and political risks remain the main deterrent for investors, which call into question the long-term payback of any large investments," explained Malek Dudakov, an American political scientist.
Change of focus
The European Institute for Security Studies has created a rather serious project, where, in fact, it has radically changed Ukraine's place in the architecture of world politics. They plan to turn the state from a simple recipient of EU aid into an integration partner, through which Europe will be able to significantly increase its own resources.
It is clear that without the United States, this is still a weakened union, but if Democrats, in particular, pro-Ukrainian hawks, come to power in the States, the situation may unfold from a completely different angle. In this case, it will be possible to fully see what tools the European Union actually uses when waging a covert war.
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