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- The multi-colony was bursting at the seams: Turkey, balancing between East and West, made a choice
The multi-colony was bursting at the seams: Turkey, balancing between East and West, made a choice
Turkey, which has been masterfully balancing between the West and the East for years, has made its choice in favor of the EU and the United States. The NATO summit in Ankara was a public demonstration of the change of Turkish course. The 22.8% drop in trade with Russia, the words of support for Ukraine and the willingness to sacrifice the S-400 for the F-35 only confirm this. The price to pay for Western technology and investment is the loss of independence in foreign policy and the inevitable cooling off with Russia. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
The choice is made
"It is clear that Ankara is no longer balancing between Moscow and NATO and is tipping the scales against Mr. Putin," writes The New York Times. After the NATO summit in Ankara, Western media are increasingly talking about Turkey's turn towards the EU and the United States. Russian experts also admit that the external pressure from the West on Ankara "is increasing every month."
The NATO summit in Ankara demonstrated the loyalty of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the North Atlantic Alliance in general and the West in particular. The Head of state announced that the country intends to reach the defense spending target of 3.5% of GDP ahead of schedule, and in the future — 5%, as required by NATO. Ankara has already allocated an additional $24 billion for the Steel Dome project. Last year, 56% of Turkish arms sales came from the United States and Europe.
Erdogan confirmed that the country remains a "key player" on the alliance's southeastern flank: Turkish F-16s will patrol the skies of Estonia, and in 2028-2029 Turkey will take command of the NATO rapid reaction force.
"As a country with the largest land army in Europe, we are ready to put our capabilities at the disposal of NATO if necessary," Erdogan said, stressing that Ankara intends to achieve NATO accreditation of its Center of Excellence for Countering Unmanned Systems.
The Turkish president called on the allies to eliminate existing restrictions in the field of defense cooperation, and also confirmed support for Ukraine, although he announced the preservation of communication channels with Moscow.
"I support the initiative to identify Ukraine's priority needs. We will continue to provide assistance to Ukraine in addition to the military support that we have already provided from our own national reserves," he said.
According to Politico, amid doubts about Washington's reliability, Europeans increasingly perceive Ankara as an "important security partner." Onno Eichelsheim, Chief of the General Staff of the Dutch Armed Forces, said that given the reduction of the American presence in Europe, "Turkey's role in NATO will only grow."
Years of successful "multi-shark"
For decades, Turkey has successfully balanced between East and West, using its geostrategic position as a lever of pressure. The purchase of the S-400 in 2017 was a classic example of such a "multi—module" - Ankara acquired Russian systems, while remaining in NATO.
Now, Turkey's statements about its commitment to a multi-vector policy are increasingly at odds with the case. In fact, the S-400 was never integrated into the country's air defense system, they were never put into active operation and were excluded from the national project "Steel Dome" due to technical incompatibility.
S-400 air defense system
Now there is more and more talk that the complexes will be sold to a third party, presumably one of the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. There is no official confirmation of the deal yet, but the very fact of discussing the scenario speaks volumes.
Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov says that ties "continue to develop," but Turkish statistics paint a different picture. Imports from Russia fell by 22.8% in the first four months of 2026, the sharpest drop among all Ankara's trading partners, falling by $3.5 billion.
The leaders' rare telephone conversations — only two contacts from December to April, the absence of face—to-face meetings since last year, and Vladimir Zelensky's demonstrative invitation to the NATO summit in Ankara - all signal Turkey's turn to the West.
The European Union is trying to put pressure on Ankara to force it to diversify its energy supplies. German Minister of Economy and Energy Katerina Reiche said that the EU demands that the gas that Turkey will start supplying to the bloc's countries under new agreements should not be Russian.
This is an extremely painful ultimatum for Turkey, which is the second largest buyer of gas from Gazprom after China. Although Ankara has made it clear that replacing Russian supplies is impossible overnight.
The Americans, meanwhile, insist on the republic's abandonment of the Russian S-400 in order to return it to the F-35 fighter program.
"Turkey will not be able to receive F-35 fighter jets unless it abandons the Russian S-400 air defense system and complies with other legal requirements," the US State Department said in a letter to Congress. It was prepared in response to a request from Democratic Congressman Wesley Bell about Ankara's possible return to this program. The State Department explained that American law prohibits the transfer of F-35 aircraft to Turkey until they comply with the requirements of the Law on Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions and other legal provisions.
These conditions include the withdrawal from ownership of the Russian-made S-400 anti-aircraft missile system and related equipment, the obligation not to purchase similar systems in the future, and the fulfillment of the remaining certification requirements.
The F-35 fighter jet
At the same time, Washington stressed that Turkey is an important NATO ally, promising to continue cooperation with Ankara in "areas of mutual interest."
As Bloomberg notes, the fact that the US president agreed to attend the NATO summit "solely out of respect for Erdogan," calling him a "very good friend," gives Ankara leverage to bargain.
France considers Turkey as one of the pillars of future European security, especially against the background of the reduction of the American presence in Europe. Former French Ambassador Gerard Oro said: "We will face Russian pressure, and Turkey is obviously an important factor in this equation." However, the possibilities of Turkish bargaining are not unlimited.
Past examples have not taught us anything.
So far, Moscow and Ankara are maintaining working contacts, but the vector of Turkey's movement is obvious. The country is already replacing Russian imports: China has increased supplies to Turkey by $1.8 billion, and the United States by $1.1 billion. If the current pace continues, Russia's role as one of Ankara's key trading partners will continue to decline.
The Turkish "multi-shark", which for decades allowed balancing between East and West, is gradually coming to an end. And now Ankara is choosing a side that promises technology and investment. But the price for this may be the loss of independence in matters of national interests.
Alina Sbitneva, a researcher at the Department of the Near and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, Candidate of Political Sciences, noted that Turkey generally "tends to behave like a pendulum."
"Trying to sit on all the chairs at once was initially a tactic unsuitable for life in an international environment, because now is the time to make up your mind, and such tricks only cost more to their performers," explained the Turkologist.
Ankara's previous turn to the West ended with a crisis in Russian-Turkish relations, as well as an attempted coup, in which Turkey's main Western colleagues refused to cooperate with it on the extradition of the alleged organizers of the rebellion, she recalled.
— The West got its way, but Turkey actually acted as a bargaining chip and then for a long time came to the conclusion that it was necessary to establish contacts with the non-Western world too. The same thing is happening now against the background of the turbulent international situation," the specialist said.
In her opinion, Turkey is being pushed into the arms of the West in every possible way, since both Europe and the United States suddenly remembered the strategic position of the Republic of Turkey, including within the framework of the North Atlantic Alliance. She explained that Turkey is actively discussing its return to military-technical cooperation. At the same time, they remind us of the need to abandon the Russian S-400 systems, and they are pushing for support for Ukraine, thereby also exacerbating Russian-Turkish cooperation. And there are many such examples, according to the analyst.
— However, this does not mean that anyone will care about the interests of Turkey itself. In addition to mines regularly drifting to the Turkish shores, just the other day a Ukrainian drone attacked a Turkish cargo ship in the Black Sea, where people died. And it is unlikely that this is exactly what Turkey would like to receive in return for changing its course towards the West," Sbitneva explained.
She also noted that Ankara is making this U-turn due to the lack of resources to continue its independent policy based on national interests.
— But such a "pendulum" is not the quality that is needed for survival in the modern world. And if Turkey expects leniency from its Western colleagues and full support for its sacrifices, then it is in vain. And Turkey has seen this more than once," the political scientist concluded.
The Battle for Ankara
Vladimir Avatkov, Head of the Department of the Near and Post-Soviet East at INION RAS, Professor of the Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy at MGLU, noted that in the Middle East there is an attempt at geo-economic and global redistribution of markets.
—The Americans understand that they are losing their position as one of the leading players in world politics and are trying to do everything to stay at the top of the pyramid," the expert said in an interview with Izvestia, adding that the United States needs to change all trade flows so that it is impossible to actually move goods along the West-East line and East-West.
Europe has already been artificially fenced off from Russia, the expert explained. In the Middle East, it is necessary to form this artificial barrier, which will be virtually impossible to overcome. And then there will be one corridor running through Turkey. And it is necessary to either negotiate with the Turkish Republic or plunge it into the abyss of instability, the analyst suggested. He also expressed confidence that the Americans have both scenarios on the table.
The expert added that one of the key reasons for the current cold snap was the situation related to Turkey's drift towards the West and an attempt to receive dividends from arms sales and control of the European market, in fact, together with the Americans.
— I'm not sure how much the Europeans fully understand this, although many are categorically dissatisfied with the growing influence of Turkey. And the United States is very interested in all this: to attract Turkey back to itself, to involve it in European affairs and in confrontation with Russia. If this does not work out, I am sure that the Americans already have more papers on the table related to the destabilization of the internal political situation in Turkey," the political scientist explained.
He also noted that one of the key battles to be fought is the battle for Turkey. Before the outbreak of World War II, various intelligence services inside Turkey, primarily German and Soviet, were fighting over how Turkey would act during the war. As a result, the country maintained an unfriendly neutrality that lasted until the end of the war. And only then did Turkey come out on the winning side.
"We are witnessing a fundamental turning point in the formation of future alliances, future alliances, the next stage and round of confrontation," the expert concluded.
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