The Bank of Russia lowered its key rate to 14% per annum. The main thing
The Bank of Russia lowered its key rate to 14% per annum and revised its inflation forecast. The regulator plans to ease monetary policy smoothly. All the details are in the Izvestia article.
The regulator's decision
On July 24, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided to reduce the key rate by 25 basis points from 14.25% to 14% per annum. Representatives of the regulator stressed that the process of easing monetary policy should be more gradual. The central Bank acts as the country's main financial regulator, determining the cost of borrowed funds for commercial banks.
According to the updated expectations of the agency, the average rate in 2026 will be 14.5–14.6%, and in 2027 the indicator may fall into the range of 10.5–12.5%. Along with the change in the key financial indicator, the Central Bank raised its inflation forecast for the current year to 6-7.5%. The regulator's rate decisions directly affect the inflation rate, the availability of loans for households and businesses, as well as the attractiveness of bank deposits.
Impact on the real estate market
The reduction in the key rate creates the prerequisites for a gradual downward revision of the cost of market mortgage programs. Dina Safiullina, Director of the FAA Project Directorate of the Ministry of Construction of Russia, said that over the past year, market mortgages have already become more affordable.
The average rate for new buildings decreased from 24.5% in June 2025 to 18.73% by June 2026. Nevertheless, developers believe that an instant change in conditions on the part of commercial banks is not worth waiting for. Vyacheslav Priymak, Vice President of the Etalon Group, drew attention to the fact that the current rate level continues to act as a limiting factor.
The role of government programs
The high cost of borrowed funds increases the importance of government subsidy programs. Developers include such macroeconomic risks in their long-term development strategies in advance.
"The high rate limits the availability of classic market mortgages and enhances the role of government subsidy programs. The change in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is unlikely to affect the work of developers. They assess the state of the economic sector in advance and "lay down" forecasts for a key indicator in their strategies," he said.
Psychological effect
Construction industry experts view the regulator's decision as an important psychological signal. Eduard Khristianov, First Deputy Chairman of the Management Board of RosDorBank, explained that the slight decrease demonstrates the Bank of Russia's willingness to gradually reduce the degree of policy rigidity against the background of inflation stabilization.
This is expected to help reduce investor nervousness in the debt and foreign exchange markets. The bond and stock markets reacted to the regulator's actions by correcting indices shortly after the decision was published.
"In addition to the clean economy, there is also an emotional context. A long period of high interest rates combined with fluctuations in the exchange rate creates a feeling of "prolonged slowdown" in businesses and limits their willingness to take on new obligations. A slight reduction in the rate by 0.25 percentage points does not radically change the cost of loans, but it gives an important psychological signal: the regulator sees a stabilization of inflation and is ready to gradually reduce the degree of cruelty, reducing nervousness around the exchange rate and the debt market," he said.
The future of the construction sector
Sergey Goncharov, CEO of Razvitie Group, believes that under the current conditions, buyers will be more demanding of the quality of construction projects and the reliability of companies.
Industry representatives predict that a sustained easing of the Central Bank's policy will contribute to the return of pent-up demand. However, in their opinion, a full recovery in activity in the sector will come only in the second half of the year.
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