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- Genie out of the bottle: The US lifted the taboo on uranium enrichment for Saudi Arabia
Genie out of the bottle: The US lifted the taboo on uranium enrichment for Saudi Arabia
US President Donald Trump has approved a 30-year agreement on cooperation in the field of civil nuclear energy with Saudi Arabia, the Associated Press reports, citing sources. The document gives Riyadh access to uranium enrichment technologies on its own territory. The deal, estimated at tens of billions of dollars, involves the participation of American companies in the development of the kingdom's nuclear infrastructure. However, the document lacks strict nonproliferation guarantees, which Washington previously called mandatory conditions — this will inevitably provoke a heated discussion in Congress and could radically change the balance of power in the Middle East. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
A 30-year agreement
US President Donald Trump has approved an agreement with Riyadh on the joint use of nuclear energy technologies, which could provide Saudi Arabia with uranium enrichment capabilities. This is reported by the Associated Press, citing two sources.
According to the agency, the deal is designed for 30 years and involves the participation of American companies in the development of a nuclear program. In particular, we may talk about the construction of uranium enrichment facilities in the kingdom, "if both sides consider such a step necessary." At the same time, the document does not include guarantees that the United States previously called necessary in order to prevent the creation of nuclear weapons.
So far, the White House and representatives of the Saudi authorities have not confirmed that such an agreement has been signed. However, last week other American media reported that the document was already on the head of state's desk.
Dreams of nuclear weapons
Riyadh has consistently sought control over uranium, insisting that as a member of the NPT it has the right to a peaceful atom, and now its position has won.
As The Wall Street Journal notes, despite the fact that President Trump has given the go-ahead, the fight is not over yet. Opponents of the initiative, both Democrats and some Republicans, fear that the civilian program could become a cover for the creation of nuclear weapons. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated in 2018 that if Iran gets nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia will develop its own.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
Lawmakers opposed to the proliferation of nuclear technology in the volatile Middle East will try to prevent this. However, it is not so easy to block a deal. This requires the adoption of a joint resolution of disapproval. After that, the veto, which is likely to be imposed by the president, must be overcome by a two-thirds majority in both chambers.
White House sources believe this is unlikely: the Republican majority is unlikely to go against the president, and the deal is seen as a strategic success pushing Russia and China away from the Saudi market.
There is no less concern in Israel. The country's authorities have repeatedly expressed concern about Riyadh's nuclear ambitions, fearing the emergence of a competitor in the region. Now West Jerusalem finds itself in a difficult situation: it receives part of the strategic benefits from strengthening the alliance of the United States and Saudi Arabia against Iran, but is forced to tolerate the strengthening of the nuclear potential of a possible competitor that is not yet ready to recognize the state of Israel.
In turn, Tehran has gained a powerful diplomatic trump card. For decades, the United States has insisted on the need to force Iran to abandon uranium enrichment — and this has become one of the reasons for the current military confrontation. Now, by allowing Saudi Arabia to do the same, the United States is demonstrating blatant double standards. This gives Tehran a weighty argument to defend its own right to enrich itself.
The agreement between Washington and Riyadh, if it comes into force, will set a dangerous precedent, as other countries in the region will also want to follow Saudi Arabia's example.
Undermining all international institutions
Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Near and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, Candidate of Political Sciences, in an interview with Izvestia, drew attention to two aspects: the international and regional dimensions of the issue.
— From the regional point of view, the geopolitical balance of power will not change for the better. There has never been stability in the Middle East as a whole, and there still won't be. And even taking into account the American assistance to Saudi Arabia, it takes time to master these technologies, develop, learn from experience, create production and industrial bases, and so on, and this cannot be done simultaneously," the political scientist explained.
According to the expert, it will take a lot of time to bring everything, launch it, and connect it.
— And while all this is being done, there is a high probability that Iran will perceive it as an existential threat and will start bombing precisely these facilities. At the moment, the level of missile defense in the Middle East countries against Iranian attacks using drones is extremely low," the expert said.
The international aspect is related to the fact that Trump's actions completely undermine the NPT and the work of the IAEA.
"Saudi Arabia could potentially become a nuclear power while also being a member of the NPT, but this is a violation of the entire international order," the analyst explained.
The orientalist also noted that after this the NPT will cease to exist.
— Why is this agreement needed if it is not being fulfilled? And again, everything comes to the conclusion that Americans can do anything, but others can't do anything. The question is also what kind of sovereign state is this that is asking Washington for permission for a peaceful atom," Krylov stressed.
At the same time, the source expressed doubt that Iran and Saudi Arabia, if they acquire nuclear weapons, will use them for offensive purposes. Rather, it will be defensive, an element of deterrence in modern international relations.
— What is happening undermines all international institutions. And in general, the question arises: why, then, has Iran suffered for so many years trying to fulfill these very requirements of the NPT? It turns out that you can just come and say, "Let's give you nuclear technology, and if you want weapons, get them." What will the world go down to then? We will very quickly have many powers that will want to have nuclear weapons," the expert concluded.
Monitor Riyadh from the White House
Kamran Hasanov, a senior lecturer at RUDN University, Doctor of Political Science at the University of Salzburg, noted in an interview with Izvestia that this is a good business and mutual benefit for Trump and the royal family.
"Trump is promoting American energy companies where there is competition with France, including Russia, because Russia is implementing its nuclear facility nearby — the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in Turkey and the El Dabaa nuclear power plant in Egypt," the expert explained.
In general, oil exports have recently become difficult due to Hormuz and tensions in the Middle East. Therefore, Saudi Arabia needed alternative energy sources, the expert suggested.
— Besides, it's not a fact that Congress will approve it. Probably, after the November elections, he will be different — democratic, who does not like Saudi Arabia very much. Let's not forget about the Israeli lobby, which is generally suspicious of all these nuclear stories. For sure, Netanyahu will send various signals through closed channels," the analyst noted.
He also recalled that the issue of the nuclear race as a whole has become relevant in the light of events in the region.
— Ankara is afraid that it will be the next to be hit, and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that the country could also become a nuclear power if Iran acquires such weapons. And other states understand that if a neighboring country becomes nuclear in order to be fully functional, they also need to have an atomic bomb," the political scientist explained.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan
At the same time, he added that Pakistan has more opportunities to offer Saudi Arabia than the United States on the issue of nuclear potential.
— It will be much easier to negotiate with Islamabad, with which Riyadh already has a military alliance, than with Washington. Perhaps Trump sees this not only as a business, but also as an opportunity to control Saudi Arabia," the analyst concluded.
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