What should an investor keep an eye on this week

This week, the key event for the Russian financial market will be the meeting of the Bank of Russia. According to the expectations of most experts, on July 24, the regulator will keep the rate at 14.25%. However, investors will focus on the Central Bank's updated macro forecast, which will show how long the pause in the monetary policy easing cycle may be. In addition, the market is waiting for the dividend cuts of the largest companies, which will put additional pressure on the Moscow Exchange index.

On Monday, shares of several large issuers will open without dividends. As calculated by Finam analysts, the dividend gaps of Sberbank, VTB, Rostelecom and Dom.The Russian Federation" will put total pressure on the Moscow Exchange index in the amount of 2.32%, or about 47 points. At the same time, experts remind that these cannot be considered losses in the usual sense: payments will be returned to shareholders' accounts in a few weeks.

Severstal's operational and financial results for the first half of the year are also expected to be published on July 20.

On July 21, Europlan will publish its operating results for the first half of 2026.

On Wednesday, Rosstat will publish data on industrial production and the producer price index for June, as well as weekly data on the consumer price index, added Alexander Dudnikov, an analyst at Cifra Broker.

On July 24, the main event of the week will take place — the meeting of the Bank of Russia on the key interest rate, a press conference and the publication of medium-term forecasts. Also on this day, RusHydro will report on operating results for the first six months of 2026.

The stock market remains under pressure. The Moscow Exchange index has been declining for almost 19 weeks in a row. Several negative factors have converged: geopolitics, budget deficits, rising inflation expectations, overhang of technical sales and sanctions risks, analysts at Pervaya Management Company explained. Due to the dividend gaps, this trend is likely to continue at the beginning of the week.

Went into a rollback: what will happen to the Moscow Exchange index after falling below 2000

And how to protect your investments during a period of volatility in the markets

As a result, the Moscow Exchange index may drop to the range of 1950-2050 points, analysts at Finam believe. If the Central Bank's rhetoric turns out to be less harsh than expected, a local rebound is possible, but there are no signs of a sustained reversal yet.

The RGBI index, according to analysts, will trade in the range of 110-112 points. The market has already adjusted to a tightening of the Central Bank's rhetoric, at least regarding the medium-term rate forecast. If these expectations are not fulfilled and the regulator, for example, maintains a neutral signal, an upward rebound is possible.

The ruble exchange rate will show relative stability in the coming week. According to forecasts, the dollar will trade in the range of 77.5–79.5 rubles, the euro — 88.5–91, the yuan — 11.3–11.7.