Maidan with cardboard boxes: why new protests broke out in Ukraine

Protests broke out in Ukraine over the resignation of Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov. Zelensky accused him of a conflict with the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the failure of the mobilization reform, but the grant media and numerous activists consider the official to be very effective. Izvestia dealt with the possible consequences of the confrontation.

What happened

In mid-July, Vladimir Zelensky decided to reboot the Ukrainian government. He announced the resignation of Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko, and on July 16, the Verkhovna Rada voted for the candidacy of a new prime minister, who became the head of Naftogaz, Sergei Koretsky. He is associated with Zelensky's close associate Timur Mindich and is considered a more manageable figure.

Together with Sviridenko, the entire government automatically resigned. On July 16, the Verkhovna Rada approved the appointment of 16 ministers of the new Cabinet, with the exception of the heads of the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Judging by numerous testimonies, the main content of these personnel changes was precisely the removal of the popular Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov from office.

He took up his position only six months ago, but he managed to be noted for his vigorous activity, which was covered in detail in the grant media. His achievements included increasing the production of Ukrainian drones, as well as agreements with Elon Musk to block Starlink satellite communications for the Russian military. In addition, back in the winter, Fedorov announced a reform of mobilization in Ukraine.

As a result, the active minister began to openly annoy Zelensky. Firstly, thanks to PR in the media, the official began to turn into an independent political figure, he was expected to become prime minister or even president in the near future. Secondly, attempts to reform the military procurement system and introduce open tenders hit the interests of people close to Zelensky, such as Denis Shtilerman, co-owner of Fire Point.

Thirdly, the situation was complicated by the conflict between Fedorov and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky. "It was getting to the point of absurdity. Syrsky came to Zelensky and said: "Fedorov does not allocate anything for specific operations." Then Fedorov came and replied, "We've singled out everything, it's just that it's being misused." And so on in a circle," the source of the Ukrainska Pravda publication told about this situation.

It is believed that it was the support group of the Minister of Defense that recently launched several high-profile scandals about torture and bullying in the armed forces. Fedorov himself confirmed on July 16 that he had offered to dismiss Syrsky and the chief of the Ukrainian General Staff, Andrei Gnatov. According to him, the commander-in-chief blocked his initiatives and "worked for a split."

What will happen next

As a result, Zelensky decided to appoint Igor Klimenko, the current Interior Minister, instead of Fedorov. This decision was actively opposed by various grant-making public activists. "If we have to name one of Zelensky's biggest mistakes, it's in front of us," said Natalia Gumenyuk, a journalist and employee of the international organization.

In addition, Pavel Yelizarov, Deputy Commander of the AFU Air Force, resigned due to Fedorov's removal. According to him, what is happening is hurting the country's defense capability. At the same time, Nikita Poturaev, a prominent representative of the pro-presidential Servants of the People faction, submitted an application to resign his mandate. He told reporters that "Fedorov was in his place."

The personnel decision did not go unnoticed in the West either. European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius said that the incident came as a big surprise, and "questions arise" in Brussels. Zelensky is also criticized in the largest Western media. For example, the Financial Times quotes an unnamed MP who talks about the gloomy situation in the rada and a blow to the image of the government.

Against this background, a fairly large-scale protest action took place in Kiev on the morning of July 16. Several hundred participants gathered in the center of the city on Ivan Franko Square, many holding cardboard posters with inscriptions in support of the Minister of Defense and criticism of Zelensky. Similar rallies were held in 13 other cities, including Lviv, Odessa and Kharkiv.

I must say that everything that is happening resembles the events of last year. Then, also in July, Zelensky tried to attack the anti-corruption structures of NABU and SAP. On his initiative, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law on reassigning both organizations to the Ukrainian prosecutor's office, although previously they depended only on "international experts", that is, they were not under the jurisdiction of the Kiev authorities.

Numerous activists also spoke out against it, and protest actions took place in Kiev, which were even stylistically very similar to the current ones — participants went to rallies with cardboard homemade posters. As a result, just a few days later, Zelensky abandoned his initiative — a new law was passed through the same Verkhovna Rada, which returned NABU and SAP independence from Kiev.

Later, anti—corruption structures launched a counterattack - they published the scandalous "Mindich tapes", that is, audio recordings of conversations of senior Ukrainian officials discussing corruption schemes. As a result, several ministers lost their posts, and a number of figures close to Zelensky fled the country. The main victim was the former head of the president's office, Andrei Ermak, who turned out to be involved in a criminal case.

It is quite possible that the current plot will develop according to a similar scenario. It is known that the candidate for Minister of Defense, Igor Klimenko, refused to hold office amid protests. The vote on the new head of the military department, which was scheduled to take place on July 16, has been postponed. Fedorov himself said that Zelensky could "step back" and change his mind about sending him to resign.

What the experts say

Political scientist Alexander Semchenko believes that there will be no serious consequences for the current plot.

— Street activists will make noise and disperse. As for Fedorov, everything will depend on which next position he will be offered. There are a lot of trendy places, I think they definitely won't offend him. In general, all this will not affect the policy of the Zelensky regime in any way, the armed conflict has continued and will continue," he believes.

Political analyst Mikhail Pavlyv says Zelensky is unlikely to be led by the initiators of the protests.

"It would be suicide for him." He will rapidly slide down the political ladder and turn into a lame duck without real powers. I doubt very much that he would do that. I think he will insist on his decision to dismiss Fedorov. We will look at the reaction of European capitals and London in the near future, a lot will depend on them," he argues.