The awakening of the "baby": how the weather accelerates the rise in food prices
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued an emergency warning about the rapid formation of conditions for a powerful El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean. According to climate forecasts, by the beginning of autumn, the process will enter an active phase, and the temperature anomaly of the water surface will exceed the mark of +2 °C. Although official meteorologists avoid the term "super El Nino" (translated from Spanish as "baby"), commodity markets are already assessing the possible risks. WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo announced the mobilization of UN agencies to help vulnerable regions. For financial exchanges, this is a clear signal for the beginning of large-scale "agrarian inflation". The information about which products may rise in price due to extreme weather events and to what extent is in the Izvestia article.
El Nino
El Nino is an increase in the temperature of the surface water layer in the central and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming weakens the usual trade winds and rebuilds the circulation of atmospheric masses. As a result, the global wind map and precipitation distribution are changing. For example, regions that traditionally receive a lot of moisture face a shortage of it, and the arid zones are flooded with rain. The peculiarity of the 2026 cycle is the high rate of warming of ocean waters. Exceeding the temperature norm by more than two degrees, combined with the accumulated general warming of the world's oceans in recent years, may make the current anomaly one of the most pronounced in several decades. For the agricultural sector, this means an increase in the duration and scale of weather shifts on most continents. At the same time, the real weather effect of the phenomenon is only beginning now, and farmers will fully experience it in a few months.
Thus, agriculture in different parts of the world is highly likely to experience weather fluctuations, in which prolonged droughts in some granaries will alternate with severe floods in others.
Rice and sugar are under threat
Severe climate impacts are expected in the Indian subcontinent and in Southeast Asia. A strong El Nino usually blocks the summer monsoon, bringing a shortage of precipitation to these territories.
Rice, the basic basis of the diet for half of the world's population, is in the zone of maximum risk. Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia have already noted some shortage of water resources. India, which is the number one exporter, is highly likely to resort to protectionist measures when rice fields are drying up. Bans or quotas on rice exports from the country, as the experience of previous years shows, immediately lead to a sharp jump in global quotations.
A similar picture is emerging in the sugar market. The Indian states of Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, as well as the plantations of Thailand, which are key sugar cane growing areas, are at the epicenter of the predicted drought. A crop that requires large amounts of moisture to gain sugar content will lose in yield. Brazil will also have to balance the global deficit, but its port infrastructure often suffers from heavy rains during the El Nino years, which makes shipments unstable.
Pressure on the tropics
The raw materials sector for tonic drinks, where supply is limited to narrow geographical zones, is also preparing for price growth. The coffee market will get problems in two directions at once. Vietnam, which controls the global export of robusta, is facing abnormal heat during the ripening period of the berries. At the same time, Brazil, the main supplier of Arabica beans, is at risk of extreme rains. If prolonged downpours hit the southern states during the harvest period, the berries will begin to crumble and rot. The coincidence of these factors will make familiar drinks noticeably more expensive, reducing the incomes of roasters and retailers.
For cocoa beans, the production of which is concentrated in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, climatic shifts mean sudden temperature changes. The heat combined with excessive humidity on the coast of the Gulf of Guinea forms an ideal environment for the spread of fungal diseases of trees (in particular, "black pod diseases"). The strengthening of the dry desert wind Harmattan additionally dries the young ovaries. Given that in the previous two years, the chocolate industry, which regularly faced a roller coaster of prices, had exhausted its reserves of raw materials, new shocks could raise cocoa prices to levels forcing producers to switch to substitutes.
Chicken by the grain
Globally, El Nino means increased precipitation. But in some regions, on the contrary, there may be a shortage of them. Australia, one of the world's top 5 wheat exporters, is at risk of experiencing severe drought. Because of this, the global grain market, which is already facing an increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizers, is losing one of its main stabilizers.
For Australian farmers, the lack of rain from September to November, when spring wheat is growing, means significant crop loss. The decline in exports will create competition for wheat in the Middle East and Asian markets. Importers will have to resell grain in North America or Europe, overpaying for freight in conditions of blocked routes.
A specific situation is developing with oilseeds and fodder crops. The equatorial drought in Indonesia and Malaysia will reduce oil palm yields. The peculiarity of palm oil is that water stress affects the weight of fruits with a delay of 6-10 months. This means that the market will have a shortage of vegetable fats by the beginning of 2027.
In South America (Argentina, southern Brazil), El Nino traditionally brings excessive precipitation. Theoretically, this is a boon for soybean and corn crops. However, in an intense scenario, rains turn into severe floods. Washed-out dirt roads paralyze the work of farmers: machinery gets stuck in the fields, grain trucks cannot reach the ports. Having a crop is meaningless if it cannot be delivered to an elevator and loaded onto a cargo ship.
In general, analysts assume an increase in prices for the main types of agricultural raw materials by 15.8% at once. This in itself is not a tragedy, as areas where demand is elastic will suffer more. But taking into account other inflationary trends, the picture looms quite formidable.
Russia: opportunities and regulatory risks
For Russia, the influence of El Nino is traditionally more smoothed out, but quite distinguishable. A climate anomaly in the Pacific Ocean usually brings milder winters to the European part of the country and the Urals, increasing the risks of uneven precipitation distribution in summer and autumn. In 2026-2027, this means an increased likelihood of local droughts in the Volga region and southern Siberia, which will require farmers to promptly adjust crop rotation and field work schedules.
At the same time, the overall position of the Russian agro-industrial complex looks very confident against a global background. The expected decline in yields in Australia and Asian countries will inevitably increase global demand for Russian wheat, corn and vegetable oils, opening up opportunities for domestic companies to increase export revenue. Taking into account the fact that the country fully provides itself with gas and mineral fertilizers, the operating costs of farmers in the Russian Federation remain more predictable compared to foreign competitors.
The main challenge for domestic agriculture lies in the area of government regulation. Rising global food prices create constant inflationary pressure on the domestic market. To avoid transferring global processes to the shelves of Russian stores, relevant agencies will have to balance between supporting the profitability of farmers and using export restrictions. Excessive application of quotas and export duties may deprive producers of excess profits necessary for the purchase of more expensive agricultural machinery and the renewal of seed stocks.
Fuel for inflation
The Pacific temperature anomalies tempered global markets' hopes for an early decline in inflation. Central banks, forced to keep high interest rates due to expensive oil and disrupted Middle Eastern logistics, are limited in their maneuvers due to the natural factor.
The period of cheap food in this situation is behind us. Droughts, floods and other effects affect yields at a time when the cost of cultivating agricultural land is close to historical highs due to high logistical and energy costs. Global governments will have to prepare for price pressures: expensive food products directly affect the daily budgets of billions of people, requiring prompt fiscal interventions and possibly even export restrictions, which will only exacerbate the problem.
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