How the RAM crisis is changing the consumer electronics market. Analysis

The "memory crisis" is gaining momentum: prices for RAM for mobile devices doubled in the first quarter of 2026, and by another one and a half times in the second quarter. The press is already discussing insider information that Huawei intends to start its own production of RAM. What caused the crisis in the memory chip market and how it is changing the consumer electronics industry — in the Izvestia article.

Causes of the crisis

• The main reason for the shortage of computer memory was the boom in the artificial intelligence market. The growing number of startups in this field has led to a rush in demand for DRAM and NAND flash memory chips used in SSD drives, smartphones, flash drives, and tablets. Companies that experienced an increase in demand for storage devices during the COVID-19 pandemic and were forced to reduce capacity after a decline in interest in DRAM were in no hurry to invest in expanding production in 2024-2025, which contributed to a shortage of supply.

• The growing AI market has attracted huge investments and has become more profitable for manufacturers than the consumer electronics market, so some companies have shifted production to the production of AI chips, reducing other areas, which has also caused a shortage of computer memory in the world. Demand for ultra-fast multi-layer RAM for AI (High Bandwidth Memory or HBM) It has already led to record revenue growth for graphics processor manufacturer NVIDIA: from almost $1 billion in the last quarter of 2019 to $51 billion in October 2025, when the last quarterly period ends in the United States. In July 2026, the American DRAM manufacturer Micron announced an increase in quarterly profit of almost 15 times.

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• Another factor provoking an increase in the cost of RAM is the oligopoly, that is, the concentration of DRAM production in a small number of large companies. According to Counterpoint Research, in the first quarter of 2026, 99% of the global DRAM and HBM market is occupied by five companies — South Korean Samsung (38%) and SK Hynix (29%), American Micron (22%), Chinese CXMT (8%) and Taiwanese Nanya (2%). South Korean manufacturers dominate the market, which are chaebols — diversified monopolies controlled by a family clan, enjoying broad government support and not actually competing with each other. Because of this, Western analysts are talking about the actual formation of a cartel in the RAM market, which can dictate its terms and set prices.

• The peak of the crisis is probably not over yet, as more and more countries are striving for sovereignty in the field of digital services and AI due to geopolitical risks. The United States and China are leaders in the development of AI models, but the European Union, Russia and Asian countries also declare their ambitions in this area. The need to create national models of artificial intelligence is fueling the growing demand for computer memory and its rising cost.

How the industry is changing

• Monitoring of the HSE's global consumer electronics business has shown that the market for custom computer memory is experiencing shrinkflation — a decrease in product characteristics while maintaining or increasing value. If in 2024-2025, 16 GB of RAM was considered the basic minimum for mid-range laptops, now Apple, Acer and Dell offer computers with 8 GB of RAM. There is also a decrease in memory capacity in the smartphone segment — in particular, such solutions are expected in the Motorola and Google Pixel models. At the same time, Apple announced a 15-20% price increase for MacBooks and iPads, Samsung and Lenovo are also preparing to raise prices for their products.

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• The computer memory crisis is changing the situation in the smartphone market, where Apple and Samsung are doing best, since these companies have their own chip production. Also, in the wake of the AI boom, Dell, an American manufacturer of AI servers, increased its revenue. Huawei, which does not depend on Android and uses a minimum of imported components, has become the most successful among Chinese manufacturers: the company also intends to launch its own DRAM production. In conditions where there is a growing shortage of computer memory, autonomy is becoming the main competitive advantage.

• Investors have begun to show interest not only in AI startups, but also in major electronics manufacturers. Previously, it was believed that this industry was developing in cycles: the growth in demand for storage devices during the pandemic gave way to a recession after supply chains recovered, and investors were wary of investing in electronics manufacturers due to the increasing cost of devices and expectations of market stagnation.

The prospects

• The demand for RAM will exceed the supply at least until 2028. DRAM manufacturers have already announced their intention to expand their production base and increase capacity, but this will take time: in particular, Micron expects to complete the construction of a new plant in New York by early 2029. At the same time, a slowdown in RAM prices is predicted due to falling demand for consumer electronics and manufacturers' unwillingness to bear the ever-increasing costs of DRAM.

• Lack of RAM can lead to an extended service life of electronic devices. Regulators in the United States and the European Union are developing measures to protect the interests of users in times of crisis: one of the important factors is the maintainability of devices. The United States is developing a voluntary standard for manufacturers, and in the EU, starting in mid-2025, labeling of smartphones and tablets should include information about the maintainability and service life of the device, along with energy efficiency and battery life.

• Due to the concentration of resources on high-performance chips, over time, AI agents will move from data centers directly to users' gadgets. HSE analysts note a shift in AI computing power from the cloud to device resources. It is expected that by 2027, more than 80% of premium smartphones will have the function of AI agents, and OpenAI (the creator of the GPT chat) has announced its intention to release the first AI smartphone in 2027.