A sea of problems: China and the Philippines have not divided the islands again
Relations between the Philippines and China have been strained again due to the islands in the South China Sea (South China Sea). Manila accuses Beijing of territorial claims, despite the fact that the International Court of Justice in The Hague sided with it 10 years ago. The PRC does not recognize this decision and continues to build artificial islands, which are considered "an integral territory of the country." The situation is further aggravated by the fact that the South China Sea has become an arena of rivalry between Beijing and Washington. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Manila does not intend to concede
At a recent symposium at Nanjing University, the Chinese authorities reiterated their official position on the islands in the South China Sea, which Beijing considers its own.
The Chinese also showed territorial claims on the map, marking a demarcation line consisting of nine dashes. Thus, about 90% of the water area of the South China Sea is declared neutral waters.
Chinese state media, think tanks and universities also published materials in which they stressed that the settlement of the dispute over the South China Sea is possible only through bilateral negotiations.
This angered Philippine Defense Minister Gilberto Teodoro, who called China's claims to these territories "ridiculous" and "nonsense." He added that China plans to gain control of the entire Pacific Ocean, but his country does not intend to give in.
We lost it dry
In 2013, the Philippines filed a lawsuit with the United Nations Court of Arbitration, seeking to challenge China's claims to an exclusive economic zone around a number of reefs, rocks and other formations in the South China Sea. Beijing claims a water area of 3.5 million square kilometers.
Manila has asked the arbitration court to confirm its rights to the exclusive economic zone, which, according to the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, should be 200 nautical miles from the original coastline, and to recognize that China is violating Philippine rights and its own obligations under the convention. China responded by claiming to have "historical rights" to the South China Sea.
The Philippines also accused China of violating its sovereign rights. In 2016, an international tribunal ruled in favor of Manila. The arbitration ruling emphasizes that many of the disputed islands are hidden by water at high tide and do not give Beijing the right to the water area. Some of these waters, as the court ruled, are already part of the Philippine economic zone. In addition, the tribunal found illegal the construction of artificial embankments by China, oil exploration and restriction of access of Filipino fishermen to local waters.
In China, they refuse to accept the court's decision, insisting that it does not have the necessary jurisdiction. China has exercised the right to refuse to participate in arbitration if sovereignty issues are brought before the court. Now the authorities are referring to the fact that the tribunal exceeded its powers and do not recognize the court's decision, since Beijing did not participate in the process.
China regularly repeats the three "not" principle: "The Chinese side does not accept or participate in arbitration, does not accept or recognize the so-called arbitration award, and does not accept any claims or actions based on this decision."
At the same time, Beijing refers to the joint Chinese-Philippine statement of 2002 on the solution of the territorial problem through negotiations. This year, China was supported by about 40 countries from Africa and Latin America.
International escalation
Other states have also been drawn into the conflict — Brunei, Vietnam, Malaysia, Japan — which have already begun to develop significant reserves of gas and oil contained in the South China Sea.
Washington sided with its ally Manila in this dispute. The Philippines is considered one of the most important U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region. There is a 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty between the two countries, the 4th article of which obliges one party to the treaty to assist the other in case it is subjected to aggression.
The United States has repeatedly sent warships to the South China Sea, and there have been skirmishes between American and Chinese sailors, although after returning to the White House, Donald Trump has not yet shown much activity in this area, and the American authorities are forced to keep significant resources in the Middle East.
At the beginning of last year, the world media reported that the Philippines was planning to file a second lawsuit against China in international arbitration due to "significant environmental damage to the marine environment" caused, according to Manila, by Chinese actions in its exclusive economic zone at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. At the same time, the PRC has repeatedly stated that the responsibility for harming the marine ecosystems of the region lies entirely with the Philippines.
Currently, the long-standing dispute between the parties is in a state of low intensity: the countries are teetering on the brink of armed conflict, but they are aware of the limits of what is permissible.
It is fundamentally important for China
In the event of a serious escalation of the situation with China, the Philippines is a rather powerless state militarily, Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, explained to Izvestia.
— But they have a valid alliance agreement with the United States. Any clash involving Manila may entail Washington's involvement, unless, of course, the United States is determined to fulfill its allied obligations, which cannot be certain," the expert pointed out.
The political scientist stressed that these disputed islands themselves are not particularly valuable.
— From the point of view of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, there are no islands there. In this case, we are talking about islets, rocks and shoals, although China insists that these are full—fledged islands," the expert noted.
For the PRC, the territory is important for three reasons. The first is that since these are islands, they create a 12—mile zone of territorial waters and a 200-mile exclusive economic zone around them. The second is that the South China Sea is a place through which a huge part of world trade passes, all its main arteries (more than a quarter of all oil transported by sea), therefore dominance in this area is extremely important.
— And the third reason is that China keeps its nuclear missile submarines, part of its strategic nuclear potential, in the South China Sea. Recently, a rare test was conducted — firing a ballistic missile from a Chinese nuclear missile submarine in the South China Sea. So these shoals, rocks and islets are important because they allow us to occupy a strategic position in the water area," the analyst emphasized.
The Sinologist added that Beijing is artificially expanding some of the islands by building elements of military infrastructure on them: radars, airfields, shelters for ships during a storm.
— In addition, at the bottom of the South China Sea, it allows you to engage in various kinds of projects and ensure a profitable operational regime in the area, the superiority of your fleet. This implies control over the key maritime arteries of the global economy and confidence that the nuclear forces in the area are safe," the political scientist explained.
This is the reason why China pays great attention to positioning in the South China Sea, while its opponents seek to weaken Beijing's position, Kashin concluded.
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