Following the example of Maduro: Trump may be preparing a military operation in Brazil
Over the past year, the United States has already conducted two military operations: first, they captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and then launched a war with Iran. Brazil may now be under threat of American pressure. Such concerns were expressed by the country's Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira. There is cause for alarm: Washington has recognized Brazil's largest criminal gangs, PCC and CV, as terrorist organizations. The republic fears that this status will become a pretext for military intervention, especially since, according to a similar logic, the United States has already acted against Caracas. The risk of a new American invasion is described in the Izvestia article.
Dangerous status
Brazilian authorities have warned of the risk of US military intervention after Washington's decision to recognize the Brazilian criminal gangs PCC ("First Capital Team") and CV ("Red Team") as terrorist organizations. According to CNN Brasil, such an assessment is contained in a letter from the South American Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira, prepared in response to a request from the Chamber of Deputies.
"Such an application of the law can occur with a high degree of discretion due to the breadth of language used in the anti-terrorism legislation of this country, with serious possible consequences for Brazilian citizens in the financial, migration and criminal spheres. Finally, there is the possibility of using US military force in Brazil," the document says.
Brazil's concerns are not unfounded. The United States has already used similar mechanisms against Latin American countries. Venezuela is the most illustrative example. First, Washington declared drug cartels linked to Caracas as terrorist organizations, and then turned to violent actions. It got to the point that in January, the US military captured Nicolas Maduro and took him to New York. He is currently in prison awaiting trial on drug trafficking charges.
The pressure is also increasing on Cuba. Since the beginning of the year, Washington has effectively restricted fuel supplies to the island, threatening duties on countries that continue to export. This has worsened the already severe energy and economic crisis: Cuba is experiencing large-scale power outages, transport disruptions, and hospital problems. The White House does not hide the fact that their goal is to change the government in the republic.
In addition, relations between the United States and Brazil have recently noticeably worsened. Last year, Washington reacted sharply to the verdict of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in the coup attempt case. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio threatened "retaliatory measures," and the American president himself said he was "very unhappy" with the court's decision.
Additionally, the foreign policy of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is causing irritation in America. Last fall, he held a virtual meeting of the BRICS countries on US trade policy. Brasilia expressed dissatisfaction with the US duties and tried to enlist the support of the largest developing countries in defending the principle of multipolarity.
"I don't think it's responsible or serious for a president of a country as big as the United States to threaten the world on the Internet," the Brazilian leader said at the time. "I think this is a big mistake and an irresponsible decision."
Criminal motive
PCC and CV are two of Brazil's largest criminal gangs that grew out of prison environments. PCC was formed in the state of Sao Paulo, CV - in Rio de Janeiro. They compete for control of drug trafficking, financial flows, and territories. In 2019, this led to clashes in prisons in the state of Para. At least 57 prisoners died, 16 of them were beheaded.
The American decision on PCC and CV became effective on June 5. According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the networks of the groups have long gone beyond Brazil.: They operate in 12 US states and launder funds through crypto assets. "Together, they number thousands of participants and organize brutal attacks on Brazilian police officers, officials and civilians," Rubio said.
In practice, the new status has already led to sanctions. On July 1, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed restrictions against two Brazilian citizens and three companies that Washington associates with the PCC. They included Victor Enrique de Oliveira Shimada and Stella Stefani Nunes Enrique de Oliveira.
Washington claims that Shimada was a key link between the PCC cell in Florida and foreign drug traffickers. According to the investigation, his network laundered more than $30 million in criminal proceeds from several American cities, and used crypto assets to transfer funds back to Brazil.
However, the Brazilian authorities insist that the US actions did not help the investigation, but only hindered it. The Brazilian Federal Police has been preparing an operation against PCC-linked suspects since March. After the publication of the US sanctions list, the raids had to be accelerated. As a result, Stella Nunes was detained, and Shimada managed to escape.
"If this had not happened, the outcome could have been different, and we would have found this person. Therefore, in my opinion, this has become an obstacle to the investigation," said Andrei Rodriguez, Director General of the Brazilian Federal Police.
Indeed, Brazil is conducting a large-scale fight against criminal gangs even without American intervention. The most high-profile example was the operation against CV in Rio de Janeiro last October. According to Reuters, it was accompanied by shootings and barricades and became one of the bloodiest police operations in the country's history. According to the authorities, at least 121 people were killed, including four policemen.
Will Brazil be next
Now we are not talking about the fact that the United States is ready to use force against Brazil, the scientific director of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) tells Izvestia Andrey Kortunov. According to him, Washington is busy with other areas, primarily Iran and Cuba. Nevertheless, the new status of Brazilian groups creates an alarming signal for the entire region.
— Trump has already made it clear that he does not consider himself bound by international law. He is guided primarily by his own ideas about what is acceptable. But if we talk about Latin America, Cuba is most likely his main priority right now. He is trying to keep the Cuban leadership under pressure," the source said.
Another factor that may deter the White House from a military scenario is the scale of Brazil itself. It is the largest country in Latin America with a population of more than 210 million people, and it would not be easy for Washington to contact it.
— But the very possibility of such a scenario remains. Trump is once again showing that, under certain conditions, he can resort to unilateral intervention. This is a serious call, and it would be wrong to simply ignore it," says Kortunov.
At the same time, it is difficult to expect a unified response from Latin America. Theoretically, such issues can be discussed through the Organization of American States, but the United States itself is a member of this structure. In addition, the region is split over Washington.
— There is Lula da Silva, who is quite critical of Trump. And there is, for example, neighboring Argentina, where Javier Miley is in power, for whom Trump is a political reference point and whom he himself is trying to emulate in many ways. Therefore, we will most likely not see any consolidated unity of Latin America on this issue," the expert noted.
US President Donald Trump
Natalia Eremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, gives a similar assessment. According to her, Trump's policy fits into the long-standing American tradition of perceiving Latin America as a zone of special interests of the United States.
— Trump generally confirms his previous approach: he perceives Latin America as the "backyard" of the United States and treats it accordingly, — said the interlocutor of Izvestia.
The expert warned that the accusations of the authorities of a country in connection with drug cartels can have consequences far beyond the criminal sphere. Not only individual defendants are under attack, but also the political leadership, the financial system and the economic stability of the state.
The United States may also try to use Brazil's participation in the BRICS. Lula da Silva actively supports the idea of a multipolar world, so the White House may try to weaken the positions of states that advocate limiting the influence of the United States.
— Americans, as a rule, don't chase one hare. They try to solve several problems at once. Apparently, something in this spirit can be assumed in relation to Latin America, and specifically Brazil," Eremina summed up.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
