The expert assessed the prospects for oil prices after OPEC+ decisions

The oil market is entering a phase of moderate stabilization amid OPEC+ production growth and the recovery of exports from the Persian Gulf. Ilya Rusyaev, a business consultant and founder of the Rusyaev Club business community, told Izvestia on July 6.

According to him, Brent crude is currently trading at about $72 per barrel, which is about 43% lower than the February highs, when quotes were rising amid geopolitical tensions and the threat of closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Now the situation has changed: the strait is open, and exports are gradually recovering.

Additional pressure on prices is exerted by OPEC+'s decision to increase production quotas by another 188,000 barrels per day from August. Since April, the total increase in supply has almost reached 800 thousand barrels per day, which increases the pressure on the market.

According to the expert, the expectations of the International Energy Agency, which predicts a decrease in global demand by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026 against the background of expensive fuel and slowing consumption, also act as a deterrent to prices.

"My baseline scenario for July and August assumes oil movement in the range of $68-78 per barrel. Leaving below $65 is possible only with an increase in reserves and weak refining, and growth above current levels may be caused by geopolitical risks, including the situation in the negotiations between the United States and Iran," Rusyaev said.

He added that companies with foreign exchange earnings should focus on a conservative level of about $70 per barrel and use hedging tools in advance to reduce price risks in the second half of the year.

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The future of the alliance is in doubt

On July 5, the largest OPEC+ member countries agreed on another increase in collective quotas for oil production in August, increasing the maximum allowed production by 188 thousand barrels per day. According to the published statement, the total quota of OPEC+ countries for oil production next month will be 36.019 million barrels per day. The changes will affect seven OPEC+ countries, which voluntarily reduce production in addition to the quotas of all countries. These include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.