Kirr's victory: The triumph of the British left risks being short-lived
The resignation of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer may be only the first stage of a large-scale political restructuring in the United Kingdom. While the outgoing head of government hopes to continue his career in the international arena, applying for the post of Secretary General of NATO, the balance of power is rapidly changing inside the country: while the Labor Party is busy with internal party squabbles, the candidate from the Reform UK party may become the new mayor of Manchester. Why a change of power in London is unlikely to bring political stability and how the struggle between Labor and reformists can change the foreign and domestic policy of the state — in the Izvestia article.
Cyrus and his team
Keir Starmer's impending departure from the post of British Prime Minister is a long-awaited event. The failed economic strategy, the obsession with the Ukrainian crisis, and the connections of his party members with convicted financier Jeffrey Epstein all affected the level of public support for the politician. By mid—June, his rating reached a record low of minus 47%. Despite this, Starmer's failure as head of government did not force him to abandon his political ambitions: until the last moment, he was not going to voluntarily end his career.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer
The Observer newspaper reported that the official is "eyeing" the role of NATO Secretary General after resigning his powers. The text of the publication says that Starmer wants to take this chair when the current head of the alliance, former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, vacates it in 2028.
The message appeared shortly before the start of the North Atlantic Alliance summit in Ankara, which will be held on July 7-8. There, according to The Observer, Starmer will be able to enlist the support of allies. However, there may be many difficulties in his path: from the unfriendly US President Donald Trump to the internal ratings in the kingdom.
"Outgoing British Prime Minister Starmer, according to available information, intends to become NATO Secretary General in 2028. However, I think there will be others who want to. Britain recently had one secretary general, [George] Robertson. This may play against Starmer's candidacy," Alexey Pushkov, chairman of the Federation Council Commission on Information Policy, wrote on his Telegram channel.
Indeed, there is a kind of tradition in the United Kingdom: many former British prime ministers consider the post of Secretary General of NATO as a logical continuation of their political careers. At various times, David Cameron (2010-2016), Theresa May (2016-2019), Boris Johnson (2019-2022), as well as former British Defense Minister Ben Wallace claimed this post. In the history of the country, there really were politicians who managed to lead the North Atlantic Alliance — Hastings Ismay, Peter Carrington and George Robertson. The latter, by the way, recently sharply criticized Starmer, saying that the prime minister "does not want to make the necessary investments" in the UK's defense.
Experts agree that Starmer is likely to repeat the fate of his predecessors: without the support of the United States, it will be extremely difficult to take the post of Secretary General of NATO. Unlike Mark Rutte, who was considered a convenient candidate in Washington, the outgoing British prime minister is not popular among either Democrats or Republicans.
The leader of the British organization Reform UK, Nigel Farage
Meanwhile, Starmer's likely successor Andy Burnham, who a couple of days ago did not even have a political program, is strengthening his position in the struggle for leadership in the Labor Party. Formally, the nomination procedure will begin only on July 9th. However, the candidates will have to enlist the support of at least 80 deputies, a high barrier that few can overcome. At the same time, Burnham's potential rivals are already starting to lose the race. Former Minister of Health Wes Streeting refused to participate in the election of the party's leader, although just a month ago he announced his intention to run. If this trend continues, Burnham could lead the Labor Party much faster than expected.
While Starmer hopes to continue his political career in NATO, and Burnham is preparing to take over the post of British Prime minister, their political opponent, Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is literally breathing down the left's back. The "King of the North", as Burnham is ironically called for his many years of defending the interests of the northern regions of England, risks spending very little time on Downing Street. Analysts believe that in the eyes of a significant part of voters, he may turn out to be the same uncharismatic and "technocratic" leader that many remember Keir Starmer.
Let's make Britain happy again
British society is noticeably tired of the constant succession of prime ministers. According to experts, the reason why Andy Burnham, who has not even entered the official election campaign yet, but is already considered the most likely future head of government, may not stay in this post for long, is that the politician has already announced his intention to carry out reforms that could further exacerbate internal contradictions in the United Kingdom.
First of all, we are talking about the revision of migration legislation, which was tightened under Cyrus Starmer. According to current rules, many migrants who arrived in the UK during Boris Johnson's premiership must have lived in the country for at least ten years before they can apply for citizenship. Andy Burnham intends to reduce this period to five years. As a result, a significant number of migrants will soon be able to legalize their stay in the country. And this will significantly complicate the implementation of Nigel Farage's migration agenda based on mass deportations of illegal migrants.
— We are seeing a slight drop in the ratings of Reform UK, as it seems to voters that a new happy life will begin with the arrival of Burnham. In fact, I am sure that this period will not last long — a month or two, and the ratings will return to previous levels. The Reform Party will be in first place, and the Labor Party will drop to its 18-20%. Is it possible to assume that in the next elections, which, according to the rules, should be held in 2028-2029, Farage's party will have the first place and the opportunity to form a government? Of course," explained Vasily Egorov, an expert on British politics.
The confrontation between Labor and reformists is unfolding today at almost all levels. After leaving the post of mayor of Manchester, the traditional stronghold of the left, Burnham appointed his right—hand man Bev Craig as his successor. And, although the elections are scheduled for July 30, the Manchester Evening News newspaper has already published the results of a poll according to which the Labor candidate is ahead of his rival from the Reform UK party by only 3% (33.2% versus 30.1%, respectively). Experts suggest that in their haste, the left may not notice how power in Manchester will pass to the populists. In the last local elections, held in May, the Labor Party also lost half of the seats in municipal councils, losing them to the reformists.
There should be reforms
— If the Reform UK party wins at one level or another, we should hardly expect a sharp turnaround in British politics. If we talk about the parliamentary elections and the possible victory of Nigel Farage in them, we can assume a strengthening of London's orientation towards Washington and attempts to build a closer strategic partnership with the United States. This is due to Farage's long-standing political and personal contacts with Trump, which developed during the 2016 presidential campaign. However, the implementation of such a course will depend on the political situation in the United States itself: the return to power of the Democrats will significantly narrow the room for maneuver. At the same time, serious changes in relations with the European Union should not be expected. Farage remains one of the main architects of Brexit and consistently opposes further rapprochement with the EU," says Vasily Egorov.
As for Russia, experts believe that there will also be no fundamental policy revision. Although the rhetoric of the populists may be less harsh than that of the Labor Party or the Conservatives, Farage's team largely consists of politicians who adhere to traditionally critical views towards Moscow. This makes an extremely cautious approach to the Russian issue likely.
In domestic policy, the main priority is likely to be the tightening of migration policy, if by that time there is still an opportunity to save it. This, in particular, will be reflected in attempts to withdraw the UK from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights, whose decisions prevent mass deportations of illegal migrants.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
