The United States again wanted to sell F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. And here's why

The United States is signaling that it is ready to discuss the sale of F-35 fighter jets with Turkey. Washington is now prohibiting the transfer of its most modern models to Turkey due to the fact that Ankara has purchased Russian S-400 air defense systems. However, the political considerations of the administration of US President Donald Trump may affect the long-standing dispute between the two countries. What is remarkable and what will change the sale of the F-35 — in the material of Izvestia.

The intrigue with the F-35

• The upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, which will be held on July 7 and 8, has unexpectedly received a new intrigue that the leaders of the alliance will be able to discuss. US President Donald Trump has hinted that he is ready to approve the sale of fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets to Turkey and ease restrictions that prohibit this. When asked by a journalist whether his administration would allow the planes to be transferred to Turkey, the head of the White House said he would "probably do something" to "make President Recep Tayyip Erdogan very happy."

• U.S. Vice President Jay D. Vance, who was nearby at the time, said that the Pentagon was considering the issue from a legal point of view, since the sale of fighter jets must take place in accordance with U.S. laws. At this point, Trump interjected that "we'll work it out."

Demonstration flight: The United States has not yet returned Turkey to the F-35 program

The meeting at the White House did not bring Erdogan the expected results

• At the same time, the Trump administration notified Congress of its intention to sell Turkey dozens of jet aircraft engines worth more than $700 million. The engines, manufactured by General Electric, will be installed on the fifth-generation KAAN fighter, the first Turkish combat aircraft of its own design. Its creation was a response to the US refusal to sell the F-35, and in the future it should replace Ankara's existing F-16 fighter jets.

Dispute over fighter jets

• Turkey has participated in the F-35 development program along with other NATO countries since 2002. It was assumed that the country would buy more than 100 fighter jets and put them into service, paying the United States about $ 11 billion. After commissioning, Ankara was supposed to receive a dozen aircraft each, starting in 2018.

However, it was at this point that the United States began to block the transfer of the F-35 to Turkey. The reason was that it had purchased Russian S-400 air defense systems. The United States considered that if Turkey simultaneously owns both the F-35 and the S-400, it would jeopardize the disclosure of the fighter's secret technologies. The US Senate passed a law banning the sale of aircraft to Turkey, and Trump signed it. Later, the country was completely excluded from the F-35 program. Ankara managed to receive six fighter jets and begin pilot training on them, but they remained in storage in the United States.

• Later, Washington's rhetoric softened. In 2024, the United States announced that the sale of the F-35 could take place if Turkey relinquished ownership of the Russian air defense system, to which Ankara has not given a positive response. Since then, the issue of aircraft sales has become a constant subject of bargaining and one of the important factors in the relations between the two countries. It is complicated by the fact that Turkey's main regional rivals, the United States, have given the green light to purchase the F-35. Israel has ordered 75 of these aircraft and has already received 48 of them, while Greece expects 20 fighters by 2030.

Softening the position

• The current rhetoric of the Trump administration indicates a further softening of the position regarding the F-35. Although Washington still does not approve of the purchase of the S-400, this issue may now become debatable: there are already reports about the alleged possibility of selling the S-400 to South Korea, but Ankara is unlikely to be able to implement this - such a step would require coordination with Moscow. The return of the complexes to Russia would be a political and strategic blow to Turkey.

• Turkey is too important an ally for the United States to lose or weaken its military potential with its own hands. The country simultaneously controls access to the Black Sea, has access to the Caucasus, the Middle East and the Mediterranean, and ensures the operation of the Incirlik Air Base, the easternmost American outpost in Europe. If Ankara suddenly decided to break off its alliance with the United States, it would be a huge geopolitical failure for Washington.

• Turkey is aware of this and is therefore trying to maximize its benefits, focusing not only on the United States, but also pursuing a multi-vector policy. At the same time, Erdogan maintains relations with many players that Washington considers its rivals: Russia, China, and Hamas. The result of this was, in particular, the purchase of the S-400. For a while, the United States could respond with bans and threats, but after the situation in the Middle East worsened, Turkey began to play an increasingly important role in the region, and the Iranian campaign led to a review of relations with Israel, the White House moved to a more practical approach in defense cooperation.

• The Trump administration's sale of the F-35 to Turkey offers many advantages. This provides the two countries with a strong bond, which is not provided by the export of any other type of weapons. It will be very difficult to break it in favor of short-term political decisions. Washington would like Ankara to become dependent on the supply of components, weapons, pilot training, aircraft maintenance and modernization. This will simultaneously provide the American defense industry with permanent orders and slow down the development of its own Turkish developments, which should result in KAAN, a direct competitor to the F-35 in the aviation market.

Will the deal take place

• If the Trump administration is serious about resolving the dispute with Turkey over the F-35, there are still enough obstacles in its way. The sale of airplanes is directly prohibited by American laws, which the president himself signed. An attempt to repeal them will cause him political damage and further distance him from lawmakers, among whom there is growing dissatisfaction with the impulsive decisions of the White House, especially on the eve of the midterm congressional elections. Trump is already periodically losing control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, where there are enough supporters of maintaining a moratorium on the sale of F-35s.

• Even if it is possible to remove the legal barriers, the issue of the proximity of the F-35 and S-400 in the ranks of the same armed forces remains unresolved. The US military remains of the opinion that the Russian S-400 radars are able to gradually collect data on the technical nuances of the F-35. Even if the risk of this is minimal, it will still remain unacceptable for the Pentagon, since too much money and time have been invested in the fighter program to put it in any danger.

• Turkey itself could resolve the issue with the S-400 complexes, but it is not going to abandon them, since these air defense systems are reliably integrated into the country's defense circuit. The destruction, return or resale of the complexes will not only undermine the country's defense potential, but will also be a political defeat for Erdogan, who failed to defend his position. Although modern fighters, due to their wide functionality, generally have greater strategic value than air defense systems, for Turkey, the exchange of the S-400 for the F-35 is not equivalent and profitable.

• It is worth noting separately how Greece and Israel oppose the strengthening of the Turkish air force. Both countries fear that the appearance of the F-35 at its disposal will change the balance of power and provide Ankara with technical superiority. Although all countries are in the zone of influence of the United States in one way or another and a military conflict between them seems unthinkable, their relations remain tense, and a sharp strengthening of one of the parties will not contribute to appeasement.