The financier allowed the ruble to weaken in July

In early July, the most likely range for the dollar will be the level of 76-80 rubles. The euro is expected to trade in the range of 86-91 rubles, and the yuan exchange rate is likely to remain in the range of 11.20–11.90 rubles. Andrey Loboda, a member of the RASO and the AFD Expert council on the development of the over-the-counter financial market, told Izvestia on June 29.

The Central Bank of Russia set the official exchange rate for June 27: dollar — 77 rubles, euro — 87.4 rubles, yuan — 11.3 rubles. According to the Moscow Stock Exchange, on June 29, the yuan was trading near the 11.4 ruble mark.

"Since the beginning of June, the dollar has strengthened against the ruble by almost 11%. At the end of last week, the growth of the US currency was particularly noticeable: the exchange rate broke through the 78 ruble mark and reached 79.26 rubles. This process of "decompressing" the dollar position is likely to continue in July, but without sharp jumps. Additional support for the ruble is currently provided by the peak of tax payments," the expert said.

In the second half of the year, according to him, increased volatility may persist in the foreign exchange market. Pressure on the ruble is increasing amid lower oil prices: September Brent futures fell below $73 per barrel, losing more than 6% in a week. The Russian Urals brand is already trading below $60, which, according to Loboda, means a direct reduction in budget revenues. Under these conditions, the base scenario is a gradual weakening of the ruble, and the dollar gets the potential to move to the level of 80 rubles.

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An additional pressure factor may be a change in the operations of the Bank of Russia: Since July, irregular currency sales have been discontinued as part of the mirroring of NWF investments. According to the expert, this removes one of the key stabilizing mechanisms that previously smoothed out exchange rate fluctuations.

Loboda also noted that the spring strengthening of the ruble was largely situational in nature and was associated with a short-term increase in oil prices amid geopolitical tensions. In his opinion, the issue of the availability of stable factors to support the national currency in the current market environment will remain open until mid-summer.

According to the expert, the meeting of the Bank of Russia on July 24 will be of particular importance. Keeping the key rate unchanged may support the ruble due to the attractiveness of ruble assets, but this, as emphasized, will not be a sufficient reason for a reversal of the long-term trend.

In May, Yelena Marchuk, Deputy Chairman of the Board of National Savings Bank JSC, said that sharp fluctuations in exchange rates in recent years had changed the behavior of private investors, as attempts to choose the right moment to buy dollars or euros were increasingly unsuccessful. The expert noted that the exchange rate is simultaneously influenced by oil prices, the policy of the Central Bank, sanctions and the expectations of the population.