- Статьи
- Internet and technology
- Connection lost: how will the licensing reform affect the availability of communications in small towns
Connection lost: how will the licensing reform affect the availability of communications in small towns
About 93% of telecom operators operating in Russia may cease operations due to the upcoming licensing reform, which was discussed at a round table in the State Duma. The participants of the event "The work of regional operators in the context of the reform of the communications industry in the Russian Federation" stated that the lion's share of market participants is simply unable to meet the new requirements of the Ministry of Finance. All the details are in the Izvestia article.
Why small operators may not be able to withstand the new requirements
The Ministry of Digital Development plans to tighten the requirements for license applicants, which will effectively close entry to the market for small businesses in the field of communications. According to research by Nexign and TelecomDaily, the Russian telecommunications market grew by 6.5% in 2025 and reached 2.3 trillion rubles. After the introduction of new rules, which they want to implement from September 2026, operators will need to have an authorized capital of 5 million to 100 million rubles, depending on the type of license, provide coverage of at least 90% of the territory of settlements with a population of over 1 thousand people and register exclusively as legal entities. Individual entrepreneurs lose the right to provide communication services.
Historically, the business model of small providers has been based on the creation of a central hub, the purchase of a trunk channel from a higher-level operator, and the development of a distribution network. It was the ability to establish a fault-tolerant round-the-clock service that allowed small companies to successfully compete with federal giants that were losing to them in the complex retail segment.
The unprofitability of small operators is directly related to the costs of meeting the requirements of the regulator, Alexey Sturov, president of the Association of Telecommunications Companies, explained to Izvestia. According to the Ministry of Finance, starting in 2025, the deduction rate to the universal service reserve has been increased from 1.2% to 2% of telecom operators' revenue. Companies were forced to invest in SORM, DPI, TSPU systems and data storage infrastructure according to the Yarovaya law, which left no funds for network modernization. The representative of the sphere emphasizes that the claims about the presence of thousands of one-day firms with a "stool and a seal" on the market only mask the inability of a large telecom company to eliminate digital inequality on its own within the framework of state programs.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Finance and Roskomnadzor, but did not receive a response at the time of publication.
Market consolidation: what awaits tariffs and quality of communication and Internet
The disappearance of the vast majority of independent providers may lead to market monopolization and reduced competition. In large cities, this effect may be partially mitigated by the struggle of several federal giants, but there will be practically no alternatives on the periphery. The experts surveyed predict that a reduction in the number of players will lead to a natural increase in tariffs for end users, while reducing the quality of service and increasing repair time.
Ivan Kopylov, an expert in the field of telecommunications from the Higher School of Economics, points to the risk of tariff pressure precisely in those locations where local operators actually provide the "last kilometer". In his opinion, a significant part of the expenses of small companies is fixed, so even a slight increase in mandatory payments makes their business model unprofitable. At the same time, the centralized model of federal companies does not allow them to quickly respond to local disruptions, which will increase the connection time for the population.
The situation is aggravated by the fact that some operators have already begun to proactively increase the cost of services, awaiting the entry into force of new regulations. Previously, companies restrained price increases based on the social importance of communications, but now businesses can no longer subsidize Internet access. The Association of Communications Companies cited the example of the fight against the monopolist Lovitel, when the lack of competition led to higher tariffs with average quality of services, and warned that the departure of 93% of players would leave consumers without the right to choose.
Rising costs and loss of alternatives
Regional small businesses, including companies based on a simplified tax system, traditionally prefer to cooperate with local providers operating under similar tax regimes. Such partnerships allow entrepreneurs to optimize the costs of digital infrastructure, while receiving a flexible and personalized service that is not available from federal monopolies. Large operators regularly try to enter this segment with dumping campaigns, but lose out due to lack of mobility and complex technical support.
The departure of local players will lead to the fact that the cost of corporate Internet for businesses will increase several times due to the lack of alternative communication channels. Entrepreneurs will have to switch to expensive tariffs of federal companies or invest in the creation of backup lines, which significantly increases the total cost of infrastructure ownership. Reliable communication is a basic need for trade, logistics, online sales registers and marketplaces, and its cost increase directly affects profitability.
In the context of total digitalization and the transition of public services to electronic form, the lack of choice can partially paralyze the work of small and medium-sized businesses. It is clear that such a scenario slows down the economic development of territories and provokes the outflow of capital from small towns to more digitalized regions. In other words, Russian telecom runs the risk of acquiring problems similar to situations with natural monopolies, where the consumer is forced to accept any proposed conditions.
What is the risk of being left without communication in small towns
Rural residents (25% of the Russian population) may feel the most severe consequences of the reform. It is small companies that provide channels for social services, hospitals and the Ministry of Emergency Situations, as it is often economically impractical for federal players to work in such locations, Alexey Leontiev, director of the Association of Telecommunications Operators (ASTO), said in an interview with Izvestia. The expert is critical of the new paradigm of the Ministry of Finance, which assumes that only "decent" companies should be engaged in the development of networks, ready to invest without the prospect of payback.
In turn, Oleg Grishchenko, president of the Rosteleset Association, draws attention to a significant increase in contributions to the universal service reserve, the minimum threshold of which is proposed to be set at 1 million rubles. For an operator with annual revenue of 10 million rubles, this payment will grow to 10% of all income, which, taking into account ordinary taxes, reduces marginality to zero, he believes.
Federal operators are unlikely to be able to replace local companies operating in the most difficult conditions of new regions and often providing communications to the military, the source is convinced.
Of course, theoretically, a complete shutdown is unlikely due to the availability of mobile networks, but the risk of local failures and reduced access quality remains. According to the Ministry of Digital Affairs, the total number of base communication stations in Russia in 2025 increased by 8.12% and exceeded 947 thousand units. At the same time, the main danger lies not so much in the growth of tariffs, which are controlled by the Federal Antimonopoly Service, as in the physical lack of communication in entire areas due to the low density of subscribers. At the same time, existing support mechanisms such as shared access points have long been criticized for their low bandwidth and are unable to replace a full-fledged home Internet.
At the same time, the head of Rosteleseti clarified that at the moment only a preliminary version of the changes to the licensing rules is being considered. The industry community hopes that the arguments presented will be heard by the Ministry of Finance and taken into account in the final reform of the industry in order to prevent collapse in the regions and preserve the business, which is currently experiencing the greatest difficulties.
The editorial board of Izvestia sent inquiries to major providers and operators of the Russian Federation (MTS, Beeline, Tele2, Megafon, etc.), but received no responses. The press service of Russian Post Mobile (the new federal operator) did not comment on the reform and its possible consequences.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
