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Higher education is a privilege: what will be the result of stimulating vocational education instead of universities
Valery Falkov, the head of the Russian Ministry of Education and Science, argues that total higher education is not necessary for the labor market, and mass demand does not meet the real needs of the economy. His statement caused a mixed reaction in the scientific community. However, in reality, this is just another confirmation of the trend towards government incentives for secondary vocational education, perhaps even to the detriment of the widespread spread of higher education. Izvestia investigated how this will affect universities and the economy in the coming decades.
Falkov's statement on higher education
Valery Falkov, the head of the Ministry of Education and Science, made a statement on higher education at the HR EXPO PRO forum. According to him, almost all school graduates want to go to universities, because the demand for such training "has been forming for decades."
"This is not good, this is not right. What are we calm about today with the university rectors? The fact that there is a reasonable balance between secondary vocational and higher education. There is no need for such a total higher education. There is no need for it from the point of view of the labor market," the minister said.
The state's turn towards secondary vocational education in recent years has been obvious: with a simultaneous increase in enrollment in vocational education programs, paid places at universities have begun to decrease. In the 2026-2027 academic year, for example, their number decreased by 13%, that is, by almost 50 thousand. Meanwhile, the number of budget places in colleges exceeds the number of free places in universities: 880 thousand against 620 thousand 10 years ago, the ratio was in favor of universities — about 575 thousand to 550 thousand.
During this time, the number of universities themselves has decreased. There were 896 of them in the 2015-2016 academic year, and 751 in January 2026.
At the same time, the number of students has hardly changed, although everything here depends very much on the demographic situation in the country. But if you look even deeper, you can see that by the end of the 2000s, up to 7.5 million people a year were studying at universities, compared to the current 4.8 million.
But the number of students who leave after 9th grade for vocational education institutions and high school has actually equaled by 2024 - for the first time in a very long time. In 2015, 32% of ninth graders went to college compared to 54% of those who went to 10th grade. In 2024, this ratio has almost reached parity: 42% versus 43%.
How has the demand for higher education changed
Until now, the number of people with higher education has been steadily growing. In 1939, there were only about 1.2 million people with higher education in the whole country (about 1.2% of the total adult population). By the end of the 1970s, more than 12.4 million people had completed higher education (about 9%), by 1989 — 21.5 million people (about 11%).
In the USSR, higher education became widespread for urban youth, and since the 1990s, everyone has been rushing there (and this coincided with the peak of urbanization in the country, when the share of the urban population reached 73%). As a result, by 2017, the proportion of the population aged 25 to 64 with higher education in Russia reached 30.2%, and those aged 25-34 reached 40.3%. Since then, growth has continued, although it has slowed slightly — in 2023, the shares for these age categories were 32.4% and 39.5%, respectively.
This is not the limit: if the figures are about the same in Germany, then they are higher in South Korea, Canada, the USA, Japan and a number of other countries. In the UK, for example, 53% of all young people aged 25 to 34 have higher education.
Western countries were experiencing the same massive expansion of higher education, according to the study Education at a Glance 2025. Among young adults (25-34 years old), the proportion of people who have graduated from universities has increased from about 27% to about 45% on average in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, but the annual increase has slowed significantly after 2021.
By the way, the study directly points to the "emerging demand": parents strongly influence the decision to receive higher education. Young people whose dad and mom got it have a 70% chance of going to university. Only 26% of those whose parents did not even complete secondary school.
Why did they start talking about excessive higher education
For those who entered universities, the need for a higher education diploma was justified by a large income in the future — and research shows that this is partly true. According to the HSE, in Russia, masters earn 20% more than bachelors, and bachelors and specialists earn 20% more than people with secondary vocational education. However, there is a caveat — it all depends on the quality of the university.
There are also studies that show a completely different picture: in 2020, World Bank analysts estimated that in Russia the return on higher education is at the level of only 8% of salary.
Another problem has arisen: excessive education, when an employee's formal level is higher than required for his position. And here they usually talk about the so-called salary penalty, when the return on a diploma is significantly reduced. According to Russian research, on average, over-educated graduates receive a salary penalty of 20% compared to graduates employed in suitable jobs. At the same time, about 35% of graduates of Russian universities do not work in terms of education. In regions with weak economies, "re-education" is even higher.
One of the reasons for this in Russia is often called the massification of higher education in the 2000s and 2010s, when there was a sharp increase in the number of students and universities simultaneously with a decrease in the quality of knowledge. This is a global problem: the Education at a Glance 2025 study shows that despite a sharp increase in higher education enrollment, adult literacy and numeracy in most OECD countries stagnated or decreased over the period 2012-2023 — even among people with higher education, 13% can only understand short, simple texts on familiar topics, among those with a full secondary education. There are 30% of them.
In the context of the reformatting of the educational system in its current form, by 2040-2050, the proportion of young people aged 25-34 with higher education will inevitably decrease. However, such a policy has risks, experts warn.
— Theoretically, getting rid of "excessive education" should balance the system, — says Alexander Safonov, professor at the Department of Psychology and Human Capital Development at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Mass Communications at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. — But the economy of the future is the economy of automation, robotics and artificial intelligence. An attempt to solve the problem of the current shortage of blue—collar workers by mass transfer of young people to vocational education is extinguishing a fire "here and now".
The current policy with a turn towards vocational training may turn into a structural shortage of qualifications and a "dangerous strategic trap" on the horizon of the 2040s and 2050s, the expert warns.
— If the funding and human resources of universities are cut in favor of colleges, it will not be possible to restore the system in two to three years in the event of a sharp change in market demand. It takes decades to regenerate a full—fledged engineering or academic school," he points out. — The country risks finding itself in a situation where there will be enough middle—level performers, and there will be catastrophically few developers of fundamentally new technologies.
Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Professor of the Presidential Academy Vladimir Blinov also sees a change in the ratio of workers with higher and secondary education, with the latter prevailing. However, he believes that the changes will be more flexible and this ratio will be dictated by the demands of rapidly developing technologies.
And Irina Abankina, a professor at the HSE Institute of Education, warns that talking about an "excess of education" is, in a sense, nonsense. Rather, this indicates the inability of the labor market to provide employment for educated and qualified people, especially since even in areas where low—skilled workers were hired — in housing and communal services, transport, warehousing - a lot of technologies and mechanisms based on artificial intelligence are emerging, which will require specialists with higher education.
What will higher education be like by 2050
Russia is now entering a period of gradual decline in interest in higher education, which some countries started a little earlier. In the USA, for example, after the peak in 2010, the number of students fell by almost 15-20%. One of the reasons is the strong labor market, in which students began to receive good salaries without a diploma. This has already led to the massive closure of small colleges, a decrease in the capabilities of local universities and an increase in the importance of top universities.
The strategic documents of the OECD, in particular Higher Education to 2030, suggest a rebalancing of education, when its quality and the relevance of acquired skills are much more important than mass enrollment.
Similar goals are laid down in Russian strategic documents. In particular, the Strategy for the Development of Education in the Russian Federation until 2036 with a view to 2040 states that it is necessary to train personnel for technological sovereignty and socio-economic development, and strengthen the relationship of universities with the real sector of the economy and science. The focus is on progressive modern universities (the Priority 2030 program, which includes 100 universities).
Alexander Safonov predicts a profound transformation of higher education in Russia and its division into two parallel circuits if the current policy continues. In this situation, there will be a trend towards a "new elitism." Fundamental education in the top 20 universities in the country will become difficult for the masses to access and will be reserved for "academically brilliant children who are able to overcome extremely high selection barriers" and children from very wealthy families.
"At the same time, massive regional universities, especially those with a humanitarian profile, will face large—scale reduction, merger or conversion to meet the practical needs of specific enterprises," the Izvestia interlocutor expects. — In regional universities, higher education will become more applied, which will actually erase the line between a bachelor's degree and an advanced college.
Vladimir Blinov notes that the state approach, in principle, ensures the support and preservation of strong universities, and in the horizon of 10-20 years, just such a scenario can be worked out. However, the expert sees more benefit in this, because such support will help preserve scientific schools, testing grounds and laboratories, which will help protect human resources and infrastructure in a demographic pit.
At the same time, the fight against low-quality, pseudo-humanitarian and virtually useless higher education for manufacturing industries has been underway in Russia for the third decade, Vladimir Blinov draws attention.
"The role of higher education for the economy will continue and even increase due to overcoming excessive education," he believes.
Olga Zherebtsova, a senior lecturer at the iSpring Institute and head of educational projects at iSpring, also believes that it is beneficial for the state to raise the entrance threshold, strengthen selection, and take a stricter approach to discipline during training. She calls secondary quality vocational education a good alternative.
However, this approach is risky. Secondary vocational education is a step, not an alternative to higher education, emphasizes Irina Abankina. And the ideal is precisely the "oversupply" of higher education, continuous learning, as well as the adaptability of the workforce and the ability to learn.
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