Ultimatum from the air: what will Zelensky's threats to Belarus lead to?
At the end of June, relations between Ukraine and Belarus sharply deteriorated. Vladimir Zelensky presented Minsk with an ultimatum, in which he demanded the removal of certain repeaters from the border area, as well as the cessation of supplies of fuel and military products to Russia. In response, on Monday, June 22, the Kremlin announced a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko to discuss the situation. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
What happened
Vladimir Zelensky actually presented an ultimatum to the Belarusian authorities. The main requirement is to remove certain repeaters that are allegedly located in the border areas of Gomel and Brest regions. According to Zelensky, this technique helps the Russian army to launch drone strikes in Western Ukraine.
The second requirement is to stop the supply of fuel from Belarusian refineries to Russia. In January –May, Zelensky said, Minsk transferred 13 times more gasoline and three times more diesel to its eastern neighbor compared to the same period last year. "Today it is the main supplier or one of the main suppliers for the Russian army. Can this be stopped? I'm sure it is," Zelensky said.
The third requirement is to stop supplying military products to Russia. According to the head of the Kiev regime, Belarusian factories, in particular, transfer components for armored vehicles and missile systems. "Ukraine does not want this, and we have warned the de facto leadership of Belarus, which influences the relevant events," Zelensky stressed.
At the same time, he noted that the most important requirement is for repeaters, which Minsk has a week to fulfill. If we consider that Zelensky first spoke about this on June 19, then it turns out that the deadline for the ultimatum will expire on June 26. According to the other two points, there are allegedly no threats yet. "We're just saying: we see it," he said.
Zelensky stressed that the relevant demands had previously been transmitted to the Belarusian leadership through non-public channels, but there was no result, so it came to public appeals. "If he [the repeaters] does not remove, we will remove everything. What will happen in a week? Either they will take it off, or we will," he threatened.
Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov called these statements a manifestation of absolute aggression and interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. He added that Moscow has no doubts about Minsk's ability to protect its borders and statehood. He also announced a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko to discuss the situation.
What to expect next
Relations between Ukraine and Belarus deteriorated sharply at the end of last year, when Zelensky's approach to Minsk clearly changed. Previously, Kiev maintained a cold neutrality with its northern neighbor, trying once again not to anger Alexander Lukashenko so that he would not get involved in hostilities.
Border guards at the border of Belarus and Ukraine
Since December, however, Kiev's behavior has become much more confrontational. Firstly, the Ukrainian authorities have thawed contacts with the fugitive Belarusian opposition. Zelensky first met with Svetlana Tikhanovskaya in Vilnius, and at the end of May she paid an "official visit" to Kiev. In addition, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has a special representative for contacts with opponents of Lukashenko.
Secondly, the Ukrainian authorities have become much more aggressive towards the current Belarusian leadership. Kiev has imposed sanctions against Lukashenko, his two eldest sons and his inner circle. Several large industrial enterprises that are allegedly linked to the Russian military-industrial complex are also subject to restrictions.
All this was accompanied by numerous statements that Minsk was either preparing to enter the war itself, or was going to provide its territory for the passage of Russian troops. Ostensibly to prevent such threats, in May, the Ukrainian General Staff even deployed additional forces to the border areas of Chernihiv and Kiev regions. At the same time, Zelensky talked about some kind of "preventive strikes" if the threats become real.
The Belarusian authorities reacted to everything that was happening quite calmly. Minsk has constantly stressed that they do not intend to get involved in hostilities, although they are ready to defend their territory. Alexander Lukashenko also said that in order to defuse the situation, he was ready to meet with Zelensky anywhere in both countries.
However, this did not save them from a new aggravation of relations. It is characteristic that the head of the Kiev regime issued his ultimatum after a multi-day tour abroad, during which he consulted with Western allies. First, he attended the G7 summit in Evian, France, then attended a Ramstein meeting in Brussels, and also met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and the defense ministers of Germany and the United Kingdom.
It is important that the current escalation has more than just a rhetorical dimension. In mid-June, a drone struck a bus carrying a Belarusian children's football team in the Bryansk region. As a result, several people were injured, and the woman accompanying them died. The Russian side blamed the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the incident, and Alexander Lukashenko said that the drone "was definitely Ukrainian."
There seem to be two possible scenarios now. On the one hand, Zelensky can use the current campaign solely for rhetorical pressure on Minsk. Nothing prevents him from saying at some point that the neighbors have removed those very repeaters. No one will actually be able to verify this, but he will earn certain political points in the eyes of his audience.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian authorities may indeed be planning an attack on Belarus. Such a scenario seems suicidal for Kiev, because even without Minsk's participation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are experiencing great difficulties on the front line and constantly complain about the lack of personnel. However, Kiev clearly has more experience in modern combat operations involving drones. The calculation may be based on this particular component.
What the experts say
Kirill Koktysh, MGIMO Professor, Doctor of Political Sciences, considers the threat of war between Ukraine and Belarus to be real.
— When it comes to Zelensky, nothing can be ruled out. He is an uncontrollable person, moreover, with severe addictions. Therefore, I would take the threat of military action seriously. Russia and Belarus should be ready for escalation, and scenarios for the development of the situation should be worked out," he emphasizes.
Former Verkhovna Rada deputy Spiridon Kilinkarov hopes that it will not come to real fighting.
— We are dealing with inadequate politicians, and we are talking not only about the Ukrainian leadership, but also about Western leaders. Therefore, nothing can be ruled out. But I want to believe that reason will prevail. For Ukraine, starting hostilities with Belarus would be a huge mistake. Kiev will lose its victim status and become an aggressor. This will greatly worsen his situation, introduce an additional split in the West, and it will be much more difficult to negotiate new parties for military aid and financing," the source explains.
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