Counter risk: Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz again

Iran is capable of blocking the Strait of Hormuz again, despite the agreements reached by the parties in Switzerland, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. On June 22, Washington and Tehran agreed on a 60-day peace roadmap and opened a communication channel for safe navigation in the Strait. But the stumbling block remains the position of Israel, which is not going to end its military operation in southern Lebanon. Netanyahu declared full freedom of action for the country's army. Any new strike on Hezbollah or other provocative event could disrupt the agreements. About why the parties will not be able to establish lasting peace in the region and how the upcoming elections to the US Congress affect the settlement — in the Izvestia article.

What have the United States and Iran achieved in the negotiations

The first round of direct talks between the United States and Iran in the Swiss resort of Burgenstock was marked by important results. The key mediators, Qatar and Pakistan, noted "encouraging progress" in a joint communique, and the parties approved a diplomatic roadmap, following which they hope to work out and sign a final agreement in the next 60 days.

The negotiations took place in an extremely electrifying atmosphere and almost broke down due to harsh public statements by Donald Trump, who threatened to "blow Iran to hell" if he broke the deal and tried to interfere with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. These words provoked a demarche by the Iranian delegation, which blocked the resumption of the quadrilateral discussions for several hours. Nevertheless, thanks to the shuttle diplomacy of the mediators, the parties managed to make progress.

U.S. Vice President Jay D. Vance called the summit "historic," and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi publicly thanked his counterparts from Doha and Islamabad for their "tireless efforts that led to a major breakthrough."

Following the negotiations in Switzerland, the parties established a Committee to continuously monitor the settlement. Three specialized technical groups of diplomats, lawyers, and military experts will focus on key aspects: the revision of Iran's nuclear program, the creation of legal mechanisms for the phased lifting of U.S. sanctions, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets in foreign banks (about $100 billion).

Tehran has already begun to receive its first dividends: the United States has temporarily lifted exports of Iranian oil and petrochemical products from sanctions, eased the naval blockade, and unfrozen some assets. According to the analytical company TankerTrackers, Iran has demonstrated a huge jump in activity, exporting about 36 million barrels of crude oil in less than a week since the signing of the memorandum. According to Bloomberg, on June 22, three supertankers under US sanctions passed through the Strait of Hormuz — Elva, Virgo and Vigor with 6 million barrels of Iranian oil.

Why Iran may block Hormuz again

Nevertheless, free navigation in strategically important Hormuz is constantly in question. A couple of days before the meeting in Switzerland, Tehran once again announced the de facto closure of this transport artery for commercial vessels. This happened after new IDF attacks on the Shiite Hezbollah group in Lebanon.

Earlier, the Iranian side stated that the ceasefire in Lebanon remains a priority for it in the negotiations. In Burgenstock, the parties tried to solve this problem by agreeing to create a special conflict resolution group. It will include negotiators from the countries participating in the consultations - the United States, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar, as well as representatives from Beirut.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Bagai also said that Tehran and Washington had agreed to set up an emergency mechanism for the safe passage of ships through the strait, something like an emergency communication line.

It is unclear whether the United States has succeeded in persuading Israel to completely stop the operation against Hezbollah. For example, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized on June 22, the day of the talks in Switzerland, that the IDF would remain in southern Lebanon as long as necessary, regardless of what Washington wanted. "The Israeli army retains full freedom of action," the leader stated on June 22. However, CNN reports that West Jerusalem may announce a "symbolic" withdrawal of troops from southern Lebanon. This is the withdrawal of part of the forces from small areas beyond the so—called "yellow Line" - the border of the territory controlled by the Israeli military after the cease-fire in April.

It was the potential solution to the "Lebanese issue" that paved the way for the unblocking of Hormuz, but Israel could at any moment launch attacks on Hezbollah again, said Lana Rawandi-Fadai, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

— I do not believe in these negotiations, because Israel is not interested in their successful outcome. Today, he is clearly making it clear to everyone that he is not going to stop [in southern Lebanon]," the expert said.

According to her, on the eve of the US congressional elections, Donald Trump may agree with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to suspend hostilities for a short period of time, but it is unlikely that the operation will be completed in the near future. It is very important for Trump to present the Iran story as his victory, but the chances of establishing lasting peace today still look minimal.

"The negotiations will take a very long time, and any provocative event in the region can negatively affect the course of the negotiation process," international political scientist Elena Suponina explained to Izvestia.

Experts agree that the most likely scenario is that Israel will resume attacks on Hezbollah, after which Iran will immediately block the Strait of Hormuz. It is unlikely that Tehran will give up such a powerful lever of pressure, despite Trump's threats.

After the spring truce, the Iranian Foreign Ministry and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) successively made contradictory statements about the work of the strait, opening and closing it. If the diplomatic corps tried to find a compromise, rather, the military, on the contrary, pursued a hard line. Later, there were reports of a complete rift in the Iranian leadership, as well as rumors about the resignation of President Masoud Peseshkian for this reason. Nevertheless, despite the differences between the IRGC and the civil authorities, both sides are still interested in unblocking the strait, Lana Rawandi-Fadai believes. But if Israel does not stop its operation in Lebanon, Tehran will unanimously decide to close the transport artery.

The technical process launched in Burgenstock will continue at the level of working groups until the end of the week. And he made it clear: for the first time in many years, both countries have moved from fruitless mutual ultimatums to the creation of a detailed regional security architecture. On the other hand, the agreements reached remain so shaky and dependent on Israel that any provocation could lead to their collapse and another blockade of Hormuz.