The financier predicted maintaining a stable ruble exchange rate this week

The dollar exchange rate may fluctuate between 71.50 and 74.75 rubles in the coming days. For the euro, the likely range will be 82-87 rubles, while the Chinese yuan is able to trade in the 10.50–11.20 ruble range. Andrey Loboda, a member of the RASO and the Commission on mining and blockchain technology of the Finance and Investment Committee of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia on June 22.

The Central Bank of Russia has set the official exchange rate for June 20: dollar — 73.4 rubles, euro — 84.1 rubles, yuan — 10.8 rubles. According to the Moscow Stock Exchange, on June 22, the yuan was trading near the 10.9 ruble mark.

"One of the factors supporting the Russian currency was the latest decision of the Bank of Russia. The regulator lowered the key rate by only 25 basis points to 14.25% per annum, while some market participants expected a more significant easing of monetary policy," the expert said.

According to Loboda, such a move preserves the attractiveness of ruble-denominated assets for investors focused on conservative instruments. Rushing to sell the ruble at a rate of 14.25% per annum means voluntarily giving up high returns, and most market participants understand this. Against this background, the first days after the July meeting of the Central Bank, in his opinion, will pass quietly, without sudden movements in the foreign exchange market.

Loboda also believes that the decisions of foreign regulators have so far had a limited impact on the Russian currency. Despite the fact that the policies of the US Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank have traditionally influenced global currency markets, the Russian market has been operating according to its own laws in recent years.

The expert stressed that the main potential source of pressure on the ruble remains not external factors, but internal decisions of the Russian financial authorities.

According to him, if the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Russia consider that a too strong ruble begins to negatively affect the budget, export revenues or the competitiveness of the economy, the state has a sufficient set of tools to adjust the exchange rate. This could include currency interventions within the framework of a budget rule, as well as changes to the requirements for the sale of export earnings.

While no such decisions have been made, the ruble, according to the expert, will continue to move sideways.

"Currently, the ruble remains stable not so much because of strong fundamental factors, but because there are no active measures aimed at weakening it," Loboda concluded.

On June 20, the Central Bank of Russia decided to reduce the key rate by 25 basis points to 14.25%. As noted, the trend towards easing monetary conditions remains, but their overall level remains tight. At the same time, inflation expectations are not decreasing, which may hinder a steady slowdown in inflation.