A shot from the letter: why Kyrgyzstan started talking about a new coup d'etat
One of the most high-profile trials in the country's history has begun in Kyrgyzstan. Kamchybek Tashiev, the former head of the State Committee for National Security's special services, and a number of well-known politicians were in the dock. All of them are accused of plotting a coup. At the same time, videos of interrogations of suspects were leaked online, in which they talk quite openly about their plans. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Lions and jackals
A high-profile trial has begun in Kyrgyzstan. Kamchybek Tashiev, the former all-powerful head of the State Committee for National Security (SCNS), as well as Kurmankul Zulushev, the former Prosecutor General, and Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu, the former speaker of Parliament, were in the dock. All three are on their own recognizance, and several more people are being held in pre-trial detention.
Kamchybek Tashiyev
The defendants were charged under articles on the forcible seizure of power and abuse of office. The case is connected with the so—called Letter 75, an appeal addressed to President Sadyr Japarov demanding early presidential elections. The authors of the message, written earlier this year, stressed that the Kyrgyz leader was elected according to the old Constitution, so he needs to renew his powers.
It is important that the current process is taking place in an open mode, that is, journalists are watching everything that is happening, and photo and video filming is underway. The most striking episode of the trial so far has been the altercation between Tashiev and the prosecution's witness, MP Elvira Surabaldieva. During the discussion, the former head of the State Committee for National Security recalled the murder of the woman's father, and she stated that the interlocutor was used to bossing everyone around and lying.
Another important event was the appearance on the Web of videos of interrogations of the accused in this case. In one of the videos, Tashiev hints at his power resource, saying that "he did not work in the Ministry of Agriculture." Then he adds that, if necessary, he will be able to mobilize supporters. "Even if 1,000 are arrested, another 9,000 will remain at the rally," he says.
At the same time, the media initially emphasized that the authenticity of the materials had not been confirmed. Later, however, the Interior Ministry actually reported on the authenticity of the videos. "During the investigation, video materials can be recorded by the investigator's decision. However, I do not know how they got into the public domain and who exactly distributed them," said Sultan Makilov, head of the department's press service.
Against this background, the most harsh statements from pro-government speakers sounded. Parliament Speaker Marlen Mamataliev noted on June 18 that in this case, "jackals and jackals tried to defeat the lion, but they failed." "There are 7 million people behind the lion," he stressed. In turn, MP Nurbek Sydygaliyev called for all the accused to be taken into custody. At the same time, the court session on June 18 was canceled due to the illness of one of the defendants.
A friend on the bench
Sadyr Japarov and Kamchybek Tashiev had been in opposition together for many years and fought for power. During the 2020 revolution, it was under the leadership of Tashiev that the protesters released Japarov from prison. As a result of those events, one of the representatives of the tandem became president, the other took control of the security forces, heading the State Committee for National Security.
In the future, both leaders did not cease to emphasize that they were connected not only by business relations, but also by close friendship. Behind the scenes, however, more and more contradictions were accumulating. The main reason was Tashiyev's increased activity. He clearly went beyond his authority when he allowed himself to criticize the government and speak out on economic policy issues.
In addition, the head of the State Committee for National Security loved personal PR. His press service regularly reported on the supply of medical equipment to hospitals and polyclinics, on assistance to rural residents affected by natural disasters, on the opening of sports complexes and playgrounds. All this also clearly went beyond the limits of his powers and hinted at Tashiev's possible political ambitions.
Finally, the head of the special service was active in the international arena. He led the Kyrgyz delegation at the negotiations with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which resolved issues of border delimitation. As a result, in both cases, the parties settled the disputes, which made the head of the State Committee for National Security an even more prominent figure.
As a result, a large-scale political crisis broke out in the country in February of this year. At that time, 75 prominent political and public figures sent an appeal to the President and Speaker of Parliament demanding early presidential elections. It is believed that Tashiyev was the mastermind behind the preparation of the letter, although he was not listed among the signatories.
Japarov immediately dismissed the head of the State Committee for National Security, and also purged people close to him in government structures. In particular, the Speaker of Parliament, the Secretary of the Security Council, several ministers and mayors lost their posts. Tashiev's brother Shairbek resigned from his parliamentary seat and appeared in court on charges of corruption in excess of 4.1 billion soms ($47 million). In addition, the GKNB was unbundled — the border guard service and the state security service were withdrawn from the subordination of the department.
A coup on the horizon
Interestingly, the Kyrgyz president spoke rather mildly about Tashiyev in February. According to him, there were people next to his "friend" who led him away from the right path. "Before deciding to resign, I called my friend, explained to him the situation that was happening here, and informed him that I was relieving him of his post," Japarov said in an interview.
Later, the clouds over Tashiyev began to thicken. At first, he was called for questioning as a witness, then he became a defendant under two criminal articles. And after the statements of the witnesses and the publication of the video, the imprisonment became real. At the same time, Sadyr Japarov started talking about the fact that he has not one friend, but 7 million friends, that is, the whole of Kyrgyzstan.
At first glance, it looks as if the president has significantly strengthened his position. He got rid of a dangerous competitor with obvious political ambitions, and was able to consolidate power in his own hands. In the medium and long term, however, things are not so rosy.
Tashiev performed important functions of control over the security forces and relations with the clans of the Kyrgyz south. Now the current government does not have these pillars. Purges in the State Committee for National Security, the Interior Ministry and the army have obviously caused discontent among the officers. At the same time, the socio-economic situation in the country continues to be difficult.
All this eventually develops into an explosive situation. Kyrgyzstan already has a rich experience of changing power across the street. As a result of the coups, three heads of state were immediately removed from office — Askar Akayev, Kurmanbek Bakiyev and Sooronbai Jeenbekov. Almazbek Atambayev became the only leader who fully served his term, although he also had problems — after his resignation he ended up behind bars.
Now Kyrgyzstan is also approaching an important milestone. After the February events, Sadyr Japarov appealed to the Constitutional Court, which ruled that the next scheduled presidential election would be held in January 2027. It is quite possible that by this time the dissatisfied will try to consolidate their forces and finances and attempt to get even.
What the experts say
According to Igor Shestakov, a Kyrgyz political scientist and director of the Oi Ordo Center for Expert Initiatives, there are many mysteries in the case under consideration. The letter talked about holding early elections, but this is not the same as a coup, he notes.
— Perhaps if Japarov had agreed to early voting, then he would have been offered to leave his post during the campaign. So far, however, these are all assumptions. I think additional details will come out during the trial. In any case, scheduled presidential elections will be held in our country in January, and passions will obviously increase," the expert argues.
In turn, Alexander Kobrinsky, director of the Agency for Ethnonational Strategies, expects that Sadyr Japarov may have more problems after Tashiev's removal from power.
— Now he doesn't have a person with whom to share responsibility. Life in the country is unlikely to improve, in six months there will be elections in the republic, and Kyrgyzstan has a rich experience of changing power across the street. After the purge of the Tashi clan, many influential people appeared in Bishkek and the regions who felt offended. Tashiev himself does not look like a man who would just let himself be buried. As a result, there is a real threat of destabilization of the situation," the source explains.
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