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- The height of summer may disappoint: forecasters warned of rains and cold weather in July
The height of summer may disappoint: forecasters warned of rains and cold weather in July
The first summer month in Russia has already been marked by sharp contrasts — from an abnormal heat wave to a prolonged cold snap with rains. And although July is traditionally considered the warmest period of the year, it can also bring a lot of surprises in 2026. Forecasters do not rule out unstable weather with alternating heat and coolness, as well as prolonged precipitation. For more information, see the Izvestia article.
What kind of weather is expected in July 2026 in Russia
Despite the fact that the height of summer is approaching according to the calendar, stable and uniform heat is not expected yet. Anatoly Tsygankov, head of the Crisis Management Department at the Hydrometeorological Center, told Izvestia that the situation in July would depend primarily on cyclones and a specific region.
— Since the beginning of summer, Russia has experienced generally hot and sometimes abnormally hot weather. High levels of atmospheric pressure and high temperatures have already been established in Siberia, Yakutia and the Urals. At the same time, despite cooler temperatures in the central part of the country, the average temperature in the territory is above the climatic norm," he said.
According to the forecaster, the situation is different in the European part of the country, including Moscow. Weather conditions remain less stable here, and this creates a noticeable contrast between the regions.
The meteorologist noted that the circulation of air masses plays a key role in the formation of such weather. He clarified that the heat began to form back in May due to the influx of warm air from the south, mainly from the regions of Pakistan and Iran.
— In June, the flow direction changed: air began to flow from the southwest, from Africa through Greece and beyond, which caused the heat to weaken somewhat, but remained. Later, these flows were replaced by a cold Arctic cyclone, which brought a cold snap," the forecaster explained.
What do forecasters say about rain and cold weather
According to the meteorologist, the influx of cold Arctic air blocks the flow of warmer air masses. Against this background, the temperature regime remains low, and the weather is unstable.
— Now there is a situation when a powerful cyclone practically does not shift. It "spins" in one place, forms fronts, and with them come clouds and rains. Therefore, precipitation is frequent, and sunny periods are short," Tsygankov notes.
He added that due to the low mobility of the cyclone, cloudy weather may last for several more weeks — until the beginning of July.
Separately, the forecaster highlighted the situation in the Caucasus, where an atypically high amount of precipitation is recorded this year. Active cyclones have been passing through the region for several months in a row, which leads to prolonged rains, uncharacteristic for this time of year.
At the same time, the cyclone's influence is not widespread. Due to the blocking anticyclone over Siberia, the cold masses do not spread further to the east of the country, which enhances the contrast between the regions. As a result, while it is cool and rainy in the center, the heat remains stable in Siberia and the Urals.
Weather forecast for July 2026 in Moscow
A noticeable change in weather conditions is expected in Moscow by the end of June. The prolonged rains that defined the atmosphere in the first half of the month will give way to more stable summer weather.
As Tatiana Pozdnyakova, a leading expert at Meteonosti, explained to Izvestia, the sedentary Atlantic cyclone, which brought prolonged precipitation, is already shifting eastward under the influence of an anticyclone. It is being replaced by an area of high atmospheric pressure, which will make the weather more typical for midsummer.
— The weather will be summery, with short—term rains and possible thunderstorms. The temperature background will remain close to the climatic norm. Current forecasts show neither a sharp cooling nor the return of abnormal heat, so conditions will be comfortable enough for recreation," she said.
Speaking about the prospects for the end of June and the beginning of July, the specialist stressed that at the moment there is no final forecast. Nevertheless, according to her, the air will continue to warm up gradually one way or another.
According to the Yandex.Weather", July in Moscow is expected to be moderately warm: +21...+25 degrees during the day and +12...+15 degrees at night. The warmest days, according to the forecast, are July 27 and 28 with daytime temperatures of +25 degrees, and the coolest are June 29 and July 5 with +21 degrees.
What will July be like in St. Petersburg?
Weather conditions in St. Petersburg in July, according to the service, will be cooler and wetter compared to Moscow. This is due to both the general circulation of the atmosphere and the influence of the Baltic Sea, which keeps the air from warming up.
Daytime temperatures in the city will most often be in the range of +19... +23 degrees, at night — about +12 ...+14 degrees. In the last days of July, from the 27th to the 31st, the daytime temperature will gradually decrease from +22 to +21 degrees, and the night temperature will remain at +13...+14 degrees.
The warmest days are forecast in the third decade of the month — from July 20 to July 26. During this period, the air will warm up to +21...+23 degrees during the day and up to +14 degrees at night. The coolest day is June 30 — +19 degrees.
Precipitation is expected to be more frequent than in the central regions, and clouds will remain for a significant part of the time, forming a stable feeling of cool and humid summer.
It is important to keep in mind that weather aggregators provide average data for 10 years. They reflect the typical weather for the city in July, which can vary significantly from year to year.
What kind of weather is expected in July in the regions of Russia
July 2026 in Russia is expected to be uneven in temperature. A significant part of the European territory of Russia, including Moscow, St. Petersburg, Rostov-on-Don, Kazan, Samara, Yekaterinburg, as well as the south of Siberia and the Far East, will be in areas with air temperatures above normal.
According to the Yandex.Weather", in these areas the air temperature can reach +30...+35 degrees and stay at a high level without illuminating coolness. At the same time, the northwestern regions and certain areas of the European part of Russia will be in a zone of lower temperatures and higher humidity.
It may be cooler than usual in the north of the Volga region, in the Urals, as well as in the north of Western Siberia. At the same time, the northern territories of Siberia and the Far East, as well as part of the Northwestern Federal District, are likely to be within the climatic norm or slightly below it.
In general, as forecasters interviewed by Izvestia note, July is considered the hottest month in the Northern Hemisphere. The peak temperature usually falls on the period from July 16 to July 23. This is due to the effect of thermal inertia after the Summer Solstice (June 21). The accumulated heat is retained in the atmosphere and enhanced by the influx of warm air masses.
At the same time, July is also the rainiest month. Due to the peculiarities of atmospheric processes in terms of precipitation, it is often compared with the beginning of autumn.
Temperature in the Black, Azov, and Baltic Seas
For those who are planning a vacation on the coast, July will be the perfect time to relax. During this period, the water warms up to comfortable values, which allows you not only to enjoy swimming, but also to engage in all kinds of beach and water sports.
Usually, the water temperature in the Black Sea in July is in the range of +22... +26 degrees, reaching in some periods +27 degrees in coastal areas. The Sea of Azov, having a lower depth, warms up faster — here the water temperature is usually +24...+28 degrees, which makes it one of the warmest seas in the region.
On a number of sea coasts, the water has already warmed up to comfortable levels. Yuri Tkachenko, a professor at Kuban State Agrarian University, told Kuban 24 about this. According to him, the temperature in the Sea of Azov is about +23...+24 degrees, while in the Black Sea it is still lower. The main warming is expected in the second half of July – early August.
The Baltic Sea is always cooler due to its geographical location. The water temperature in July, as a rule, stays within +18...+21 degrees and only rarely rises higher. Therefore, August is traditionally considered the "golden season" for holidays in the Baltic. At this time, the weather stabilizes, and the sea reaches peak temperatures for the region.
Weather service data: Do the forecasts match
The long-term forecasts of various weather services generally show a similar view of the weather in July. However, there are some discrepancies. They are caused by differences in technologies and approaches used for data processing.
So, the data of the Yandex.Weather", for example, may differ by 1-2 degrees from the forecasts of the popular Internet resource World Weather. This is due to the fact that "Yandex.Weather uses its own algorithms and technologies, while World Weather and a number of other services rely on global weather data processing models.
Leading meteorologists emphasize that such forecasts can only be perceived with a small degree of probability. This is especially true for long—term assessments - for a month or more in advance. In this regard, experts recommend monitoring forecast updates from various sources and taking into account that the final weather picture for a particular day is adjusted closer to the date.
Where will it be warmest in July, and where will it rain?
Based on preliminary long-term forecasts, the hottest weather is expected in the south of Russia, as well as in some regions of Siberia and the Far East, where dry and sunny weather is expected. The greatest amount of precipitation is forecast in the central part of the country, in the northwest and in places in the Urals.
Thus, some regions will be dominated by heat, while others will be influenced by rain and coolness. For a number of subjects, not only heavy rains and thunderstorms will become a common occurrence, but even hail in some places.
Residents of the central part of the country, including Moscow and the Moscow region, should prepare for changeable weather, and beach lovers should focus on southern resorts, where the season promises to be the most comfortable.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
