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With an extended pipe: what will the construction of the TAPI gas pipeline in Central Asia lead to?
A large-scale TAPI gas pipeline is being built at an accelerated pace in Central Asia, through which Turkmen gas will flow to India and other South Asian countries. At the moment, the pipe is being laid in the most problematic area — in Afghanistan. According to official reports, work in the border region has entered an intensive construction phase. Details are in the Izvestia material.
The trumpet is calling
Preparatory work has been completed in Afghanistan for laying the first stage of the TAPI gas pipeline, through which Turkmen gas will be supplied to India and other South Asian countries. We are talking about a 153 km long section that will connect the southernmost city of Turkmenistan, Serkhetabat, with Afghan Herat.
According to news agencies, geodetic works have been completed on the segment, the territory has been cleared, access roads have been prepared, and the pipeline is actually being laid — trenching, welding and installation of pipes, insulation of joints. 700 construction workers work at the construction site, 250 pieces of equipment are involved.
It is noted that the Turkmen side has signed 17 international contracts for the laying of the gas pipeline in this section. In particular, the Indian company MAN Industries has already supplied more than 100 thousand meters of metal pipes. They arrived via a complicated route — they were taken from India to the Georgian port of Poti, from there they were taken to the Azerbaijani Alat, then ferried across the Caspian Sea to Turkmenistan, from where they arrived in Afghanistan.
It is also interesting that the initiators of the project pay serious attention to security issues. 107 km of patrol roads have already been laid along the future gas pipeline, security forces will drive along them, who will protect the infrastructure. Afghanistan's Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Abdul Ghani Baradar, also said that in the future, a power transmission line will be created along the route, and logistics centers will appear.
In turn, Turkmenistan's permanent Representative to the UN, Vepa Khadzhiev, said in early June that in the north of Afghanistan, in parallel with the laying of the pipe, work is underway to extend the railway line and create a railway terminal. According to the diplomat, all this should help to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan. "Sustained economic development, job creation, access to energy and the transport system are prerequisites for lasting peace and stability," he said.
Stocks without buyers
The TAPI gas pipeline is to pass through Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Due to this, fuel from the Turkmen Galkynysh field, which is considered the second largest in the world, will flow to the countries of South and Southeast Asia.
The length of the pipeline will be 1.8 thousand km, with a design capacity of 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year. For comparison, the capacity of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, which connects Russia with Turkey and Eastern Europe, is 31.5 billion cubic meters. m per year. Nord Stream-1 pumped 55 billion cubic meters. m per year.
The total cost of construction is estimated at $10 billion, although Turkmenistan emphasizes that the initial launch will cost "only" $5 billion. The representative of the official Ashgabat, Mukhatmerat Amanov, said that the Asian Development Bank provides financial assistance, the Islamic Development Bank allocated a tranche of $ 700 million, and European and Turkish credit organizations participate in the project.
The TAPI project is of great importance for the region. The fact is that Turkmenistan is one of the ten largest gas producers in the world, ranks fourth in terms of natural gas reserves. However, the republic has serious difficulties with fuel exports. Neighboring Central Asian countries are not ready to buy large volumes — Uzbekistan has large gas reserves, Kazakhstan is rich in oil, and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan use hydropower.
For a long time, Russia has been buying significant amounts of Turkmen energy resources, but gradually cooperation in this matter has decreased, as a result, Moscow and Ashgabat did not renew the contract in 2024. Turkmenistan has actually become dependent on one buyer, China, which enjoys a monopoly position and lowers purchase prices.
TAPI can also be a breakthrough project for potential buyers. In India, along with the growth of the economy, the demand for energy resources is also increasing. According to the forecast of the US Energy Information Administration, the demand for natural gas in the country will triple by 2050, reaching 650 million cubic meters. m per day. TAPI can also play a certain diplomatic role, building bridges between Afghanistan and surrounding countries, as well as linking conflicting India and Pakistan.
From ceremony to ceremony
It must be said that TAPI has a long and complicated history. It was first mentioned in the early 1990s, with the first documentary mention appearing in March 1995, when Turkmenistan and Pakistan signed a memorandum on the construction of a gas pipeline. During the same period, Ashgabat and Islamabad tried to coordinate the construction of the highway with the de facto Afghan authorities from the Taliban movement.
After 2001, the Americans launched their armed operation in Afghanistan, and a new round of civil war began in the country. The construction of large infrastructure projects had to be forgotten, but after a few years the idea returned again. A landmark event took place in December 2015, when a solemn ceremony of laying the first stone of TAPI was held in the city of Mary in the south-east of Turkmenistan.
Interestingly, the then leader of the country Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov said that the pipeline could be built in three years. The case, however, progressed much more slowly. On the one hand, unstable financing has affected. On the other hand, a new change of power in Afghanistan prevented, as a result of which American troops were withdrawn from the country, and the Taliban forces again occupied Kabul. As a result, by now the parties report that only the Turkmen section with a length of 214 km has been fully built.
I must say that the project still raises many doubts. Some of them relate to security issues in the Afghan segment. It is no coincidence that when laying pipes, patrol roads are specially made here, that is, they provide for constant monitoring of the facility. Various groups that are fighting for power and influence continue to operate in the country, and attacking expensive infrastructure may be a way for them to assert themselves.
In addition, relations between the countries of the region and each other remain tense. Earlier this year, bloody battles raged on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan, during which hundreds of soldiers and civilians from both sides were killed. Relations between Pakistan and India also remain difficult; during last year's escalation, not only ground skirmishes were recorded, but also missile strikes.
What the experts say
Andrey Grozin, Head of the Central Asia Department at the Institute of CIS Countries, believes that the parties can wishful thinking.
— Some construction is probably underway, but we don't really have accurate data on volumes and rates. We are talking about Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, which remain closed countries, there is no objective control data, we focus solely on statements by local officials. In fact, it is difficult to imagine that any serious investor would allocate large amounts of money for a project focused on modern Afghanistan. I believe that in this case there are more conversations in order to score political points, rather than real construction," he notes.
Alexander Kobrinsky, director of the Agency for Ethnonational Strategies, says that the construction of TAPI raises many questions.
— The Taliban do not control the whole of Afghanistan. As I understand it, the pipeline must pass through the territories of free tribes, and this is always an unpredictable story. Investors have given money to some people today, and tomorrow they should give it to others. Who will behave how, what agreements will be followed, and there are a lot of questions. At each stage, you will need to pay money, as a result, the cost of gas will skyrocket. Perhaps the initiators have some decisions about this, we just don't know them, we will observe the process," he argues.
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