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- Restrictive faith: the EU has reached a consensus on the 21st package of sanctions against Russia
Restrictive faith: the EU has reached a consensus on the 21st package of sanctions against Russia
The EU Council may agree on the 21st package of sanctions against Russia on June 15, Izvestia found out. A political decision on the introduction of new restrictions has already been made, and consensus has been reached among all states, the European Parliament told the editorial board. The European Commission has submitted proposals for the 21st package, stating that the new measures will affect the sectors "with the greatest impact": energy, trade, finance and, for the first time, fisheries. However, experts emphasize that the effect of the next sanctions will have almost no effect on the Russian economy. The European countries themselves will suffer mainly.
Who supported the adoption of the 21st package of EU sanctions
The European Union is preparing to introduce new restrictions against Russia. The European Parliament claims that all 27 EU countries have unanimously approved the 21st package of sanctions.
"The political decision has already been made, there is a consensus among all EU countries," MEP Thierry Mariani told Izvestia.
The EU member states generally supported the European Commission's proposal on the 21st package. On June 10, the text began to be worked out in the Committee of Permanent Representatives. The official source of Izvestia in the European Union clarified that in the coming days, restrictions will be discussed "at a technical level." A meeting of the EU Council on Foreign Affairs will be held in Luxembourg on June 15.
"Ultimately, the EU Council (ministers) is responsible for its adoption, not the European Council (heads of state and government)," the source explained in an interview with Izvestia.
Approving a new package of sanctions against Russia is likely to be faster this time than the previous one, when Hungary and Slovakia were its key opponents. Budapest and Bratislava linked the lifting of the veto with the restoration of oil supplies from Russia via the Druzhba pipeline — the suspension of imports occurred due to the fact that Ukraine blocked transit through its territory.
—Orban and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico blocked the adoption of sanctions by giving relevant instructions to their foreign ministers," the Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) explained in a conversation with Izvestia Ivan Timofeev.
The government of former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban opposed both military aid to Kiev and maintaining dialogue with Moscow, which irritated Brussels. However, after the change of leadership in the person of Peter Magyar, who won the election, Budapest's position softened.
Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar
By the way, the new Hungarian government also advocates protecting its national interests and building pragmatic relations with the Russian Federation, but prefers not to engage in direct confrontation with Brussels. Magyar recognizes the harmfulness of sanctions for the European economy and expresses the hope that after the end of the crisis in Ukraine, the EU will begin to lift restrictions. At the same time, the European Union (in particular, the Brussels elite) uses sanctions as a tool of political and economic pressure on Moscow, says former MEP Gunnar Beck.
— They feel they have to do something against Russia while the conflict in Ukraine continues. Therefore, this story of sanctions has been going on for many years. And they are afraid that if they stop agreeing on new sanctions, it will somehow symbolize a softening of the position," he told Izvestia.
Moscow has repeatedly stressed that the new European sanctions are not able to influence Russia's foreign policy. The European Union officially recognizes that the restrictions have not led to a change in the foreign policy course of the Russian Federation. At the same time, Brussels is trying to emphasize that the main purpose of restrictive measures is to undermine the Russian economy and deplete resources.
Contents of the new list of anti-Russian restrictions
Although the new package of EU sanctions may create difficulties for individual companies and banks, it does not threaten Russia's macroeconomic stability, experts interviewed by Izvestia note. In many ways, it contains symbolic measures, such as a ban on entry into the eurozone for persons who have served in the Russian army since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine. Analysts believe that in this case, the Russian Federation can respond in a mirror manner.
Among the economic measures is the introduction of a ban on transactions against 31 more Russian banks. The EU also plans to freeze the assets of about 90 financial organizations and impose additional restrictions on transactions of more than 30 banks in Russia and third countries. The sanctions list also plans to include 20 banks, crypto companies and financial platforms in third countries that help circumvent European sanctions.
— There are banks that may be included in the appendix to Article 5, and this may complicate their work on the external circuit. There are individuals and legal entities that may be subject to blocking sanctions. This may make life a little more difficult for them, although it is not critical in the current conditions," Ivan Timofeev believes.
As a new absurd measure, the EC is for the first time trying to block the supply of fish and seafood, in particular cod. The ban on the import of Russian fish products, according to Timofeev, will also not be a serious blow. The expert noted that it does not occupy a significant share in Russian exports to the European Union.
— These bans have already been imposed by the United States, then they introduced exceptions for them. I don't think this will have any serious impact on our capabilities. The domestic market will receive our fish, and prices will become lower, I hope," he said.
Of course, the European Commission has traditionally proposed the introduction of new sanctions against the Russian energy sector. The EU wants to expand restrictions against tankers, which in the West are classified as a "shadow fleet." Another 30 vessels may join the sanctions list. The EC also proposes to limit the sale of tankers carrying liquefied natural gas to Russia.
Commenting on possible restrictions against Russian LNG, Stanislav Tkachenko, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University, noted that demand for Russian LNG remains high, despite everything, so Europe's refusal to purchase it may hit itself first of all.
— If, in theory, we assume that we will not be able to sell LNG, it will be a blow, especially for our Arctic projects. But not now. Since March, LNG has been selling like hot cakes, and we have a long queue of buyers of Russian LNG," the expert said.
In his opinion, the European Union risks facing energy problems if it abandons Russian LNG against the background of limited pipeline gas volumes and the redistribution of American supplies to other regions.
— If they really implement these promises, they will shoot themselves in the foot. Russia will not feel any special negative consequences," the expert said.
The new package of sanctions also includes export restrictions against 50 companies in China, Turkey, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, the UAE and India. Such measures complicate relations between the European Union and its partners, primarily with China, says Igor Yushkov, an analyst at the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund. According to him, some companies in third countries may simply be re-registered after being subject to restrictions, and work with Russia will continue through new structures. However, the diplomatic effect of the sanctions is accumulating.
The European Commission may also introduce new export restrictions on the supply of metals, alloys and components to Russia. However, in response, Moscow is able to restrict exports of palladium, titanium, nickel, enriched uranium and a number of rare metals that are critically important for the European high-tech, automotive and aerospace industries. Russia had previously stated that effective and tough steps would be taken in response to the next EU sanctions package.
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