The State Duma predicted an increase in oil to $ 100 with the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East

In the event of a further escalation of the conflict over Iran, oil prices will again exceed $100 per barrel. In the most negative scenario, the price growth drops down to $190. Alexey Govyrin, a State Duma deputy and member of the State Duma Committee on Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (United Russia faction), told Izvestia on June 8.

According to him, at the end of 2025, most analysts expected an oil surplus of more than 3 million barrels per day. Against this background, the basic forecasts of international agencies assumed that the cost of Brent crude oil would remain around $55 per barrel. However, the situation has changed dramatically due to the worsening situation in the Middle East. The tension around the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil supplies pass, has a particular impact on the market.

"New strikes between Iran and Israel have already led to an increase in oil prices. On the morning of June 8, the price of Brent rose by more than 4% and approached the level of $97 per barrel, while American WTI crude oil rose to $94, reaching the upper limit of the June price range of $90-98," explained Govyrin.

Oil of the time: the price of Urals has increased by 150 since the beginning of the Middle East conflict%

How will an increase in Russian fuel quotations affect the country's budget

According to the parliamentarian, one of the main features of the current market remains high volatility. Intraday price fluctuations can reach $10-20 per barrel, which significantly complicates forecasting and calculations for market participants.

At the same time, even a possible reduction in tension will not lead to a rapid reduction in the cost of raw materials. According to the MP, the restoration of production and logistics chains of OPEC countries will take several months, so the consequences of the current crisis can be felt on the market for quite a long time.

For Russian oil exports, this situation means that uncertainty remains high. In particular, market participants will have to take into account the wide range of Urals crude oil prices and closely monitor the discount rate to global reference grades.

Tehran and Tel Aviv began to exchange blows again the night before. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired rockets towards Israel, which, in turn, began attacking military targets in the center and west of Iran.