The economist assessed the prospects for a key rate cut on June 19

The Bank of Russia will review the key rate issue again at its June 19 meeting, and this decision remains one of the key benchmarks for the market. The main question is whether the trend towards its gradual decline will continue. Olga Gogaladze, an economist and founder of the PRO.FINANSY School of financial literacy, told Izvestia on June 4 that the regulator is likely to continue its policy of softening monetary policy based on current economic indicators.

According to the expert, the Bank of Russia does not publish harsh forecasts and makes decisions based on operational data: the inflation rate, lending dynamics, labor market conditions, investment activity and consumer expectations. After reaching peak values in 2025, the key rate has already dropped to 14.5%, and another reduction is possible in June — by approximately 0.5 percentage points.

"At the same time, the regulator is forced to act cautiously. The rate cut stimulates economic activity: loans are becoming more affordable, investments and consumer demand are growing. However, this may accelerate inflation again, so the Central Bank seeks to avoid overheating the economy after a period of tough policy," the expert explained.

Gogaladze stressed that the Central Bank is currently balancing between two risks — a slowdown in the economy due to expensive money and the threat of accelerating inflation if conditions are eased too quickly. In the meantime, inflation, according to her assessment, remains relatively stable and may stabilize in the range of 5-6% with a gradual approach to the target level of 4%.

The key question is: the Central Bank may begin to lower the rate more carefully.

In April, the regulator chose a compromise between fighting inflation and economic growth.

The expert also noted that pro-inflationary factors persist. Among them are staff shortages in a number of industries, high government spending, restrictions on foreign trade, and the ruble's dependence on commodity exports. Additional pressure is exerted by the heterogeneous situation in the labor market: in some sectors there is a reduction in staff, in others there is an acute shortage of specialists, which supports wage growth.

According to the forecasts of the Bank of Russia, by 2026 the key rate may decrease to 13%, and by 2027 to 8-10%, however, the implementation of this scenario is possible only with stable inflation and the absence of external shocks. Otherwise, the regulator may slow down the pace of mitigation or take a pause.

The next meeting of the Central Bank, according to the expert, will be a continuation of a cautious and phased policy. For the economy, this means a transition from severe cooling to moderate support for business activity, and for market participants, it means the need to adapt to a gradual change in financial conditions.

On June 4, Maxim Oreshkin, head of the presidential administration, said that the Russian economy had gained more than 10% in three years, while the European economy had grown by only 3% over the same period. According to him, economic growth has led to the opportunity to work actively and effectively. He added that over the past few years, it has been possible to attract a large number of Russians to the labor market. Oreshkin stressed that the unemployment rate in Russia is the lowest in the world.