The final architecture of international settlements for foreign economic activity will become hybrid

Roscongress Foundation experts believe that the final architecture of international settlements for foreign economic activity will become hybrid. This is stated in their voluminous analytical review "New architecture of international payments: fintech solutions for foreign economic activity". The topic raised in the review will be discussed on June 5 at the SPIEF-2026 session "The Future of international Settlements: platforms, CFA and Renaissance bills".

The modern global payment and financial infrastructure relies heavily on the network of correspondent accounts of Western banks, primarily in US dollars and euros, as well as on the dominant role of the SWIFT financial messaging system, which is de jure under the supervision of the National Bank of Belgium. Before the beginning of the 21st century, this system greatly contributed to the expansion of world trade and provided mutual benefits for the participating countries, but in recent decades it has become an instrument of geopolitical pressure.

The Western payment architecture creates systemic vulnerabilities for participants in foreign economic activity from Russia, BRICS+, the EAEU and the countries of the Global South, including rising costs, delayed payments, sanctions risks and dependence on intermediaries. States subjected to Western sanctions pressure cannot remain hostages of the system controlled by Washington and Brussels. However, in the current situation, de-dollarization by itself is not sufficient. The dollar system is based not only on currency, but also on the infrastructure of trust: liquidity, arbitration, compliance, correspondent accounts, legal regimes and the political power of Western institutions. Therefore, replacing the dollar with the ruble, yuan, digital currency or stablecoin without creating a comparable infrastructure does not solve the systemic problem.

Alternative payment models should be evaluated not by one parameter, but by a set of criteria: protection from sanctions, legal predictability, speed of transfer, cost of conversion and transfer, availability of liquidity, cyber resilience, availability of arbitration and the willingness of counterparties to accept the instrument.

Government alternatives are already being formed, but each one has limitations. CIPS is the most mature non-Western system, but it mainly operates in the yuan circuit and is tied to trade with China. The SPFS helps reduce dependence on SWIFT, but is limited by the willingness of foreign banks to connect to the Russian infrastructure. CVTSB and mBridge are technologically promising, but so far they remain politically sensitive and legally incomplete solutions.

In such a situation, private and off-bank instruments can become a practical business response to sanctions restrictions. The bill allows you to replace a direct bank payment with a transferable debt obligation, and stablecoins provide speed and the ability to bypass congested banking corridors. At the same time, the bill requires trust in the issuer and clear accounting, and stablecoins carry the risks of dollarization, blocking, compliance, and dependence on the issuer's infrastructure.

Scaling of alternatives is impossible without legal unification. We need the recognition of digital documents and digital bills, the legalization of smart contracts, CFA and crypto asset regimes, agreed rules for currency control, BRICS+ arbitration mechanisms, and compatibility of national payment systems. Roscongress Foundation experts conclude that the final architecture of international settlements is likely to be hybrid. There will be no single SWIFT replacement: the Western system, CIPS, national payment systems, Central Securities Commission, mBridge/BRICS Bridge, promissory notes, digital bills, stablecoins, agency networks and barter schemes will be used in parallel. Not one system will win, but a "network of networks", where the payment route will be selected for a specific transaction according to the criteria of security, speed, cost, liquidity and sanctions resistance.