Less is better: the debt burden of the population has decreased in Russia
The debt burden of Russians has decreased to a minimum since 2019. According to the Central Bank, the share of disposable incomes of the population, which is used for loan payments, amounted to 9.1% by the beginning of the year. Izvestia found out what the indicator means, what causes such dynamics, and whether the expected easing of monetary policy in 2026 will untie borrowers' hands.
Minimum level
By the end of 2025, the debt burden of Russians decreased to 9.1%, the lowest level since at least the beginning of 2019, according to the Bank of Russia's Financial Stability Review.
Thus, as of January 1, 2026, the debt service ratio decreased to 9.1% (10.7% as of January 2025), mainly due to a reduction in citizens' expenses for servicing cash loans, the review indicates.
According to the regulator, the cooling of the retail lending market under the influence of tight monetary and macroprudential policies contributed to reducing the debt burden of the population.
"The debt burden of citizens decreased by 3 percentage points compared to the first quarter of 2022 and has been at its lowest levels since 2019, which is facilitated by the rapid growth of citizens' incomes (+17% yoy by the end of 2025) and measures taken by the Bank of Russia to limit the debt burden of borrowers," the review says.
Restrictive measures
In recent years, the regulator has consistently taken a number of measures to reduce the debt burden of the population, forcing banks to significantly tighten requirements for borrowers.
Along with the tight PREP (a prolonged period of high interest rates in the economy), this, of course, cooled the retail lending market.
According to the Expert RA agency, by the end of 2025, consumer loans in Russia decreased by 4.6%.
Of the applications submitted by individuals for loans from banks, no more than 17-20% of the total number of applications were approved. First of all, applications for unsecured consumer loans, which are often applied for by people with a debt burden above 50%. That is, those who give at least half of their income to debt servicing, says Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global.
First of all, the cooling occurred in the segments of unsecured retail banking loans — these are credit cards, cash loans, and other consumer loans. The MFI market is also feeling the cooling, primarily short PDL loans, says Olga Goryukova, an industry expert.
"Old debts"
In addition, in 2024-2025, Russia experienced an acute shortage of personnel in a number of industries, where salaries grew faster than inflation. Especially among representatives of working professions who are active borrowers. The monthly payment on a loan taken out, for example, back in 2023, remained fixed.
Finally, the term of the old "cheap" loans has come. Many have repaid loans taken out during the period of low interest rates — in 2020-2022 during the boom in consumer lending — by 2025-2026 they are gradually approaching repayment.
Savings and bankruptcies
The population is now approaching new large loans very cautiously, the savings model has come to the fore.
In 2025, deposit rates reached 21-23%: it became more profitable to save rather than borrow at 30-40% per annum.
The decrease in the indicator is partly attributed to the fact that debtors have become more likely to resort to bankruptcy proceedings, as well as with the actual bankruptcies of individuals themselves.
— In fact, this category of citizens would have to direct their disposable incomes to loan payments. However, due to the forgiveness of existing significant debts as a result of the bankruptcy procedure, the disposable incomes of these categories of borrowers are not used to fulfill loan obligations," explains Olga Goryukova.
The tenth part
The 9.1% figure announced by the Central Bank shows how much of their official income (salaries, pensions, scholarships) citizens on average give to banks to repay previously taken loans.
The level is quite acceptable and means that, on average, citizens spend slightly less than a tenth of their income on loan payments. For example, in developing countries, the figure is 5-10%, in developed countries — 10-20%, says Vladislav Nikonov, entrepreneur and founder of the social network application about finance and investments BAZAAR.
At the same time, it is important to keep in mind that the calculation implies aggregated data. That is, the ratio of the sum of all income of Russians to their debt servicing costs is taken as a basis.
There is a danger that the data of citizens with huge earnings and small debts can create a "Simpson effect": an improvement in the aggregated indicator with a deterioration in the arithmetic mean and median.
— Simply put, the debt burden of "typical" borrowers is growing, and the overall picture creates an underestimated debt burden, — says Yuri Isaev, analyst at the <url> service.
Lower rates
In 2026, experts expect a softening of the PREP — by the end of the year, the key rate may reach 12-12.5%. However, analysts are not expecting a jump in the indicator. Restrictions on the debt ceiling will remain in place, and new strictures are coming.
New regulatory requirements will come into effect when assessing creditworthiness: from 2026, banks will take into account only official income, Yuri Isaev reminds.
This will continue to be a powerful barrier for high-risk borrowers.
For individual borrowers with loans already taken out, the reduction directly promises few advantages: the monthly payment will not decrease. The debt can be refinanced, but at a rate of 12%, the bank will offer 16-17%.
The rate cut will have the greatest effect on new borrowers, primarily "high—quality" middle-income borrowers. Demand for mortgage products and car loans will increase. At the same time, interest in loans will be fueled not so much by a reduction in the nominal rate, but by a reduction in monthly payments compared to the peak values of 2024-2025.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
