Suitcase, train station, desert: the EU wanted to send illegal immigrants to the CIS countries

The European Union has approved one of the toughest migration laws. It allows illegal immigrants to be searched and to set up centers for the deportation of migrants in third countries. According to media reports, such platforms may appear in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. How this mechanism will work in practice and whether Central Asia will become a new direction of EU migration policy is described in the Izvestia article.

Is it better at home

"For many years, Europe has been sending the most dangerous signal: even if a person did not have the right to stay, there is a high probability that nothing will happen. This era is coming to an end," said French MEP Francois—Xavier Bellamy.

In 2025, 64.2 million migrants lived in the European Union, an indicator comparable to the population of a large European state. We are talking about people with a legal status: a residence permit or a work permit. At the same time, the EU countries themselves are actively competing for labor and launching programs to attract migrants.

The situation with illegal migration is completely different. Its exact scale is difficult to estimate, however, according to various estimates, about 12 million people without legal status could enter the EU from 2008 to 2024. Now it will be more difficult for them to stay in Europe.

On June 1, the EU agreed on a new package of migration rules aimed at speeding up deportations and tightening controls over the stay of foreigners. One of the key elements is the possibility of expelling migrants to special centers outside the European Union.

According to media reports, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Uganda and Rwanda are among the options under consideration. However, so far we are talking only about potential partners with whom negotiations can be conducted. For example, Astana has already stated that there are no such discussions. Uzbekistan has not yet commented on the situation.

EU states are expected to finalize the new migration regulations in the coming weeks. The document also tightens the rules regarding persons considered a security threat, including house searches, prolonged detention, entry bans, and penalties for non-cooperation.

"This will speed up the return process and increase the number of returnees who do not have the legal right to stay in the EU," said Nicholas Ioannides, Deputy Minister for Migration and International Protection at the Presidency of the Council of the EU of Cyprus.

However, not everyone approved of such a policy. Non-governmental organizations have already stated that the new measures could lead to increased detention, accelerated expulsions and an increased risk of violations of international law.

In particular, Amnesty International (recognized as an undesirable organization in the Russian Federation) warns that the creation of "return centers" outside the EU may lead to the detention of people in countries where they have no guarantees of protection of their rights. According to the organization, such practices create systemic risks and contradict the basic principles of international refugee protection.

Echo of Syria

Over the past ten years, the European Union has mainly accepted attempts aimed at reducing the influx of illegal migrants across its external borders. The protection of the Mediterranean Sea was strengthened, the powers of the border services were expanded, and the rules of entry were tightened. This had a noticeable effect: for example, last year net migration in Germany amounted to about 230,000 people, about 45% less than a year earlier.

One of the reasons is the reduction in the number of asylum seekers arriving from the main countries of origin. However, the problem persists with those who remained in the EU after the conflicts ended and did not legalize their status in any way.

This issue is particularly acute for people who have received temporary protection during crises. For example, Syrian refugees came to Europe at the height of the civil war. Over the years, many have adapted, found jobs, and their children have gone to school. But as the situation in Syria changes, European governments are increasingly discussing whether their right to stay should be extended automatically.

Migrants themselves do not intend to leave the EU on their own. According to Eurostat, the share of voluntary departure from the European Union among those who have not received asylum is about 27%.

"We need to give people the feeling that we are in control of what is happening," said European Commissioner for Migration Magnus Brunner.

At the same time, it is difficult to say how effective the mechanism of expulsion to third countries will be: such initiatives have already encountered legal and political obstacles.

For example, it was previously planned to launch a program to send asylum seekers to Rwanda in the UK. The agreement was signed in 2022 under Boris Johnson, but implementation never began due to court decisions, including the intervention of the European Court of Human Rights. Later, the government of Cyrus Starmer, which came to power, canceled the program.

Italy, in turn, opened migrant accommodation centers in Albania, but they did not work in full. Subsequently, the Albanian side declared its unwillingness to extend the program against the background of the prospect of joining the EU.

What the experts say

Currently, there is a dispute in the European Union not so much about the goals of migration policy as about the methods of its implementation, Nikolai Topornin, director of the Center for European Information, explains in an interview with Izvestia. Some political forces insist on a more rigid model, where the priority is rapid expulsion and minimization of procedural barriers. Other Governments follow a more cautious logic, with an emphasis on human rights and judicial oversight.

— As a result, the EU is actually trying to combine both approaches. On the one hand, pressure on illegal migrants is increasing and return procedures are being accelerated. On the other hand, there are still restrictions related to international law and court decisions that do not allow us to act as harshly as possible, as right—wing politicians in some countries sometimes suggest," the expert notes.

According to him, the creation of migration centers on the territory of third countries can be considered a compromise solution. However, at the technical level, it is still unclear exactly how such sites can function. The parameters will depend on the bilateral agreements that have not actually been formed at the moment.

Political scientist Chingiz Lepsibayev is skeptical about the prospects for the participation of Central Asian countries. In his opinion, neither in Kazakhstan nor in Uzbekistan is society ready for a possible influx of migrants.

— Kazakhstan is a country with a population of about 20 million people, and even an influx of 200-500 thousand migrants would put a serious strain on infrastructure, education and healthcare systems. Cities are already under pressure due to internal demographic growth and the need to develop social infrastructure," the source explains.

Financial compensation from Brussels is unlikely to be an argument, he continues. Kazakhstan's economy is about $300 billion, and the maintenance of such facilities will not be profitable: the cost of their operation may exceed the proposed payments from the EU.

— In addition, we are talking about people from a different linguistic and cultural environment, which creates an additional burden on the adaptation system. And the experience of large-scale migration in the region is limited. I doubt very much that the countries of the region will be interested in such projects," the analyst concludes.