A supercomputer has identified the main favorite of the 2026 World Cup

On Thursday, June 11, the FIFA World Cup (2026 World Cup) starts, which for the first time in the history of the World Cup will be held in three countries at once: the USA, Canada and Mexico. In addition, this tournament will be the first in which 48 teams will participate at once, instead of 32. The national teams will be divided into 12 groups of four teams each. Before the start of the World Cup, the Opta statistical platform supercomputer conducted a study and calculated the main favorites for the World Cup. All the details are in the Izvestia article.

The main contenders for the title

Among all the teams that will take part in the World Cup, the supercomputer gives the best chance of winning to the Spanish national team — 16.1%. In addition, the Spaniards are the only team that is estimated to overcome the 1/8 finals stage with more than 50% and reach the quarterfinals (52.1%). It should be noted that Spain won the European Championship in 2024, defeating the British in the final with a score of 2:1.

The French national team is in second place (13% chance of winning the tournament). The French have been considered the hegemons of world football for many years. Since 2016, the team led by Didier Deschamps has regularly won medals at international competitions, in particular at the World Cup.

The supercomputer named the England national team as the third favorite of the World Cup (11.2% for gold). It is noteworthy that the British, having one of the most expensive squads in the world and a very high-quality selection of players in history, have not been able to win international tournaments for 60 years — since 1966. The best result of the team in the 21st century is Euro 2024, where Gareth Southgate's team lost to the Spaniards in the final. However, after the end of the World Cup, the coach left his post, and since 2025, the British have been coached by German specialist Thomas Tuchel.

The final list of the England national team, which did not include such star players as Harry Maguire from Manchester United, Trent Alexander-Arnold (Real Madrid), Cole Palmer (Chelsea) and Phil Foden (Manchester City), caused a lot of discussion in the information environment. The performance of this team at the tournament is of great interest.

The last World Cup for Messi and Ronaldo

The World Cup in North America is likely to be the last in the careers of world football legends — strikers Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. The Argentine will turn 39 this year, while the Portuguese has already turned 41. However, if Messi has already won the World Cup in 2022, then Ronaldo remains without the World Cup.

It is noteworthy that these teams are also among the TOP contenders, taking fourth and fifth places, respectively. Argentina's chances are 10.4%, Portugal's 7%. The sixth favorite of the tournament is the Brazilian national team led by Italian Carl Ancelotti, which has not won the World Cup in 24 years. The supercomputer estimates the probability of the Brazilian team winning at 6.6%.

The main underdogs of the tournament

The only teams that the supercomputer does not give any chance of winning are the national teams of Haiti, Cape Verde, Qatar, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Curacao, led by former coach of the Russian national team Dick Advocaat. These teams are taking part in the World Cup for the first time, and in many ways this has become a part of the tournament.

The teams hosting the tournament are also not considered favorites. For example, the United States national team has the best chance among the three teams, but its probability of victory is estimated at only 1.2%. The supercomputer gives Mexico 1% to win, Canada 0.5%.