Rolling call: operators are preparing for the introduction of 5G

Russian mobile operators are preparing for the introduction of 5G, which the government may allocate frequencies for in the near future. Demand from enterprises and organizations will be the driver of the 5G market growth, according to analysts at the MTS Research & Insights Center, which has prepared a study on the prospects for the development of fifth-generation communications in the Russian Federation. Enterprises themselves are waiting for the introduction of the fifth generation of communications, 55% of companies reported this. The details are in the Izvestia article.

What will be the growth driver of the 5G market in Russia

The first 5G networks in the Russian Federation may start operating this year — the State Radio Frequency Commission may allocate a frequency range of 4.63-4.99 to operators, as well as allow their launch on frequencies for 2G, 3G and LTE as early as the end of June.

"Judging by how the situation is developing, 5G in Russia may be launched in the coming months," said Eldar Murtazin, a leading analyst at Mobile Research Group.

The prospects for the development of the fifth generation in Russia, as well as the financial aspects of its launch, were analyzed in a study by the MTS Research & Insights center, which was reviewed by Izvestia. The study provides an analysis of the development of 5G abroad (in China, the USA, South Korea, Great Britain and Germany), an analysis of the technological aspects of the fifth generation of communications and its advantages over LTE, as well as potential scenarios for the deployment of 5G in Russia.

So, according to the text of the study, in the next decade (by 2036), the capital expenditures of the big Four operators on the introduction of 5G for the B2C segment will amount to 286 billion rubles. And revenue from the provision of fifth-generation services will reach 234 billion rubles over a ten-year horizon. In 2027, according to the calculations of the authors of the study, the Russian operator will put into operation a little more than 1.3 thousand 5G base stations. In the case of frequency allocation in 2026, in order to cover 16 million cities in Russia with 5G networks, operators will need to build 61 thousand base stations by 2036.

The authors of the report call the corporate segment the driver of the 5G market growth. Among the most promising segments for the implementation of 5G solutions in Russia, it names industrial enterprises, smart cities, smart warehouses, ports, airports. "The greatest positive economic effect from the introduction of 5G-based solutions is expected in the industrial enterprises segment over the next 3-5 years and in smart cities over the next 5-7 years," MTS said in its materials. In particular, the introduction and scaling of 5G-based solutions (industrial robotics, the introduction of autonomous vehicles, new products based on artificial intelligence), judging by international experience, will have a positive impact on the operational performance of companies that have implemented 5G on their infrastructure.

"Global 5G port cases confirm the real operational effect: private networks + edge + AI increase the efficiency of logistics processes, enable the implementation of automation and digital twin models, which leads to significant cost reductions and faster operations. Thus, the effect of digital twins and automation reaches +10% efficiency in Rotterdam/Hamburg. In Qingdao, automation through 5G has shown up to 70% labor costs savings in pilot cases," the text of the study says.

The MTS representative stressed that the company has been preparing for the launch of 5G in Russia for a long time. From 2022 to 2025, the company invested about 30 billion rubles in the preparation of the operator's infrastructure. In particular, the investments made it possible to significantly increase the share of 5G-Ready equipment across the country on the MTS network, as well as prepare data transmission channels at speeds exceeding 1 gigabit per second.

"We expect the greatest positive effect from the launch of 5G in Russia in the business segment. International experience shows that companies in the logistics, retail, industrial, and smart city sectors are increasing operational performance by 20-80% through the launch of 5G solutions such as edge analytics, data management platforms, end-to-end IoT integration, robotics, digital twins, and autonomous transportation. In the B2B segment, 5G private networks are becoming a platform for creating managed service environments for business customers, as well as a critical tool for end-to—end digitalization of processes," said a company representative.

The MTS study is quite detailed, detailed, and captures what is happening on the market, said Eldar Murtazin.

— And the current situation in the market is such that 5G in the format in which it is offered by the state is not profitable to develop in the consumer market now. But for the corporate, B2B market, this is quite a working story, the expert believes.

MTS is the most ready to implement 5G in B2B, according to the results of a study of the readiness of telecom companies to implement 5G in the B2B segment, J'son&Partners Consulting reports in its research. Next, Beeline, Megafon and T2 are slightly separated from each other, it says. "In the structure of publicly implemented 5G/5G-ready cases, MTS accounts for more than half of industry-specific and industrial projects, including oil and gas, petrochemicals, mining and metallurgy from the total volume of such projects. Beeline also has a large number of public projects in the field of R&D, and Megafon has a large number of business solutions, according to this report.

Beeline Business is now actively deploying Private LTE/5G-ready zones at enterprises, Vimpelcom noted.

— We use the LTE band, which is ready to upgrade to 5G as soon as the frequency resource becomes available. We expect that the Private LTE/5G market in Russia will enter a phase of active growth in the next three years. According to our estimates, by 2028 the volume of this market may exceed 20-25 billion rubles.

What is 5G interesting for business?

5G technology has already become widespread in the world: ITU estimates that 5G networks will cover about 55% of the world's population in 2025, and this figure reaches more than 80% in high-income countries. In some developed markets, 5G has actually become the basic standard for mobile communications, said Marcel Siraev, Project Manager at Yakov & Partners.

In Russia, the implementation of 5G is significantly slower. This is due to a number of structural limitations: the unresolved issue of using the "golden band" of 3.4–3.8 GHz, the need to switch to domestic base stations, limited industry readiness for large-scale use of 5G scenarios, as well as the high capital intensity of building new networks, he listed.

For the mass user, the transition to 5G is likely to be less noticeable: the current speeds and delays of 4G are already sufficient for most everyday scenarios. For businesses, the effect of 5G can be much deeper, since it is not only about increasing speed, but also about a new communication architecture for industrial and corporate tasks, said Marcel Siraev.

Companies expect a high level of communication quality from 5G, according to the J'son&Partners report. The advantages of 5G related to speed and low latency are secondary, but they are also important — they are noted by more than half of organizations. The business also expects a reduction in equipment downtime, a reduction in operating costs, a reduction in the need for personnel for routine operations, increased productivity, and a reduction in the number of occupational safety incidents.

At the same time, according to J'son&Partners, 55% of companies plan to pilot 5G-based solutions over the next three years. The industries that are most interested in the fifth generation of communications are mining, industry, metallurgy, petrochemistry, and oil production. Among the scenarios for using 5G-based technologies, representatives of companies name artificial intelligence, new precision positioning technologies, advanced IoT platforms, augmented and virtual reality systems.

Anton Rubenchik, Director of Digital and Information Technologies at SIBUR, believes that 5G creates the infrastructure foundation for Industry 4.0 in the petrochemical industry.

— Ultra-low latency and high connection density allow real-time control of thousands of sensors, cameras and automated equipment. As a result, we get a transition from scheduled maintenance to predictive maintenance, reduced accidents and the possibility of remote control in hazardous areas," he said.

The introduction of 5G in the nuclear industry will have a noticeable effect, said Evgeny Abakumov, Director of Information and Digital Technologies at Rosatom State Corporation.

— With stable 5G coverage, it will be possible to deploy temporary facilities faster, for example, mobile control points or headquarters during repairs and in emergency cases. The technology will allow you to build a flexible infrastructure and quickly connect new devices, expand the monitoring system, and add sensors in new areas.  We are confident in the prospects of domestic developments and plan to increase Private LTE capabilities at our production sites," Evgeny Abakumov told Izvestia.

The greatest effect from the introduction of 5G is indeed expected in the B2B and B2G segments, according to Megafon.

— For business and government, the fifth generation of communications will open up opportunities for the development of critical digital services, including industrial IoT, remote control of transport, real-time video surveillance, and others. Such scenarios require high reliability, minimal signal delays, and the ability to connect a large number of devices simultaneously, which is what 5G provides," the operator's press service noted.

5G is interesting for operators and businesses, says Eldar Murtazin. In enterprises, 5G provides high—speed data transfer in information systems, automation, and most importantly, such networks do not depend on external Internet outages.

— Large enterprises are now focusing on building fifth-generation networks for their needs. It is no longer very important at what frequencies they operate. Therefore, the growth point of 5G for operators is in B2B," says Eldar Murtazin.

— 5G is a strategic bet for us in the medium term. We are monitoring the development of domestic solutions and are preparing for pilots in the field of video analytics and drones. Full—fledged implementation, with integration into predictive maintenance systems and digital twins, will be implemented when the economics of solutions make investments sound," added Anton Rubenchik.

4.63-4.99 GHz is the range that the state is ready to give, but not the one that the signalmen were waiting for, says Denis Kuskov, CEO of TelecomDaily. Considering that Russia is already 6-7 years late with the introduction of 5G compared to other countries, it can be assumed that it will be interesting not so much for end users as for businesses, he believes.

— Now all the operators are in approximately the same situation. Everyone has pre-5G. It is necessary to have a definitive understanding of which frequencies will be available to operators, and how many phones will be able to work on them. At first, 5G will work fully for individuals in cities with millions, the expert concluded.