Strategic Autonomy Game: Ninth country joins France's Nuclear Initiative
France is striving to become a guarantor of security for Europe. Earlier, Paris launched an "advanced nuclear deterrence" program, offering a replacement for the American nuclear shield. A ninth country, Norway, joined the initiative the day before. Izvestia investigated whether Paris, whose national debt exceeds 115% of GDP, will be able to pull it off.
The ninth went
French President Emmanuel Macron and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Garstere held talks in Paris. At a press conference following the meeting, the French leader welcomed Oslo's decision to join Paris' defense initiative. He also noted that the kingdom is France's strategic security partner, a NATO ally and the largest gas supplier to the EU instead of Russia.
Jonas Gar Stere
The parties concluded agreements on mutual military assistance, providing for joint exercises, cooperation in the field of hybrid threats, cybersecurity, maritime security, support for Kiev, development of the defense industry, and agreed on the early deployment of military equipment. Norway has the same agreements with Germany and Britain.
After Donald Trump's return to the White House, relations between Washington and Brussels have worsened. Then the Europeans began to think about creating their own nuclear shield. France became the initiator. In 2025, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the country possessed 290 nuclear warheads. Of the three components of the nuclear triad, the state has two — sea and air. The country has four strategic submarines loaded with nuclear ballistic missiles and fighter-bombers delivering nuclear cruise missiles.
The Macron Doctrine
The French leader first spoke about the nuclear deterrence initiative six years ago during the first presidential term of Donald Trump. Last spring, Macron returned to this topic.
Dassault Rafale
And earlier this year, he proposed a radical change in the national nuclear doctrine. In addition to Norway, Britain joined the concept of "advanced nuclear deterrence" (last summer, France signed the Northwood Declaration with it, strengthening the coordination of the nuclear forces of the two states, and also created a joint group on nuclear cooperation. — Izvestia), Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Denmark and Sweden. According to the French media, we are talking about coordinated efforts, joint participation in French nuclear exercises, the exchange of intelligence, as well as the creation of a steering group on nuclear issues.
At the same time, according to Macron's idea, deterrence involves not only joint nuclear exercises led by Paris, but also the possible deployment of French nuclear weapons on the territory of other countries.
The French leader stated the need to strengthen the country's nuclear arsenal, ordered an increase in the number of nuclear warheads and no longer publish information about how many of them are at the disposal of Paris.
ASMPA-R (centered)
Currently, the United States provides the nuclear umbrella in Europe as part of the NATO Nuclear Sharing mechanism, which has been in operation since 1954. The Alliance conducts joint nuclear exercises involving non-nuclear States. At the same time, Paris does not join the bloc's nuclear missions — in 1966, under the leadership of Charles de Gaulle, France withdrew from the NATO military structure in protest against US hegemony, and after its return in 2009, it did not join such types of maneuvers.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has repeatedly stated that NATO is strengthening and increasing its nuclear potential, which it can use against Russia in the event of a conflict, and France's actions related to the increase in the arsenal were considered a hostile step that destabilizes further developments.
Economic problems
On the one hand, France is actively increasing military spending. Macron announced that the annual defense budget will reach €640 billion by 2027, twice as much as in 2017, when he first came to power. The budget will increase by 35 billion euros in 2026 and by another 30 billion euros in 2027. Moreover, as the head of state emphasizes, these funds will be received not through borrowing, but through economic growth.
In addition, the European Union has launched the SAFE (Security Action for Europe) initiative, under which France will receive €15.09 billion in loans for defense purchases. This is part of the large-scale Readiness 2030 package aimed at stimulating investments in the defense sector.
However, on the other hand, the problem is not so much in absolute numbers as in relative ones. At the NATO summit in June 2025, the allies, under pressure from the United States, agreed to increase the share of defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. According to estimates by French parliamentarians and analysts, even to achieve 3% of GDP, the country will need about €100 billion per year, and with the current level of public debt at 115% of GDP, this is an almost insurmountable task.
Besides, France is already going through a budget crisis. Given that the government is forced to save on social spending, it will be quite difficult to allocate additional billions for defense against this background.
Macron's plan is not to replace the American nuclear umbrella with the French one, but rather an attempt to create a second, additional layer of deterrence. This means that in the event of a crisis, European countries will be able to rely not only on the US nuclear guarantees, which formally remain in force, but also on the French ones, with the caveat that Paris, not Washington, will make the decision on the use of nuclear weapons.
The submarine "Le Vigilant"
Paris alone will not be able to replace the United States with its $800 billion defense budget, 1.3 million troops, dozens of aircraft carriers and thousands of nuclear warheads.
Not to replace, but to supplement
We are not talking about the French planning to deploy nuclear weapons in the countries that have joined Macron's initiative, Alexander Ermakov, a junior researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, clarified in an interview with Izvestia.
— And the fact that these states plan to take part in French nuclear exercises will be invited to a minimal familiarization with French practices and planning in this area. In the future, this should lead to closer integration of the armed forces and the readiness of the allies to participate in the provision of French nuclear missions," the expert explained.
Hypothetically, in the future, in his opinion, this could lead, among other things, to the readiness to deploy French aircraft with cruise missiles at Allied airfields in the event of a threat. But there is absolutely no question of transferring nuclear weapons and preparing allies for their use, the expert stressed.
Dassault Rafale
"So even according to the maximum plans, the French expanded nuclear deterrence, or as they call it "advanced", will not "expand" to the level of the American—centric NATO Nuclear Sharing mission," the analyst explained.
According to Ermakov, the French, if you do not pay attention to Macron's rhetoric, which "is rather a reflection of his personal international and political ambitions," are very cautious and not completely confident about not only ousting and replacing the Americans, but creating a more modest addition to them.
"In order to achieve a more complete, as the French president likes to say, "strategic autonomy of Europe," European countries must be ready for much greater integration, be much bolder and more determined, and European elites are completely deprived of these "shortcomings," which is probably for the best for everyone," the political scientist concluded.
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