Playing with fire: Armenia chose Marco Rubio instead of the EAEU
Nikol Pashinyan refused to go to Astana for the EAEU summit, citing the election campaign in Armenia. Instead, he will receive U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Yerevan. Meanwhile, the summit is going to discuss the republic's European ambitions and its possible movement towards EU membership. Formally, Armenia remains a member of the Eurasian structures, but it is increasingly building relations with the West. What to expect from the visit of the American diplomat on the eve of the summit is in the Izvestia article.
The visit on the background of the elections
Parliamentary elections will be held in Armenia in two weeks. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's position remains precarious. European leaders have already supported him by holding a summit in Yerevan. Almost all potential opponents are under criminal prosecution or pressure. But the rating of his Civil Contract party still barely reaches 18%, according to the SAEAS Focus survey.
Against this background, Washington also seems to be showing support for the Armenian leader. On May 26, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrives in Yerevan. The Armenian Foreign Ministry officially denies the connection of the visit with the parliamentary elections, but the date so close to the vote does not look accidental.
It is noteworthy that the meeting with Yerevan is not particularly advertised in the United States. The official schedule of the State Department of Armenia for these dates is not specified. Little is known about the purpose of the visit. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said that the parties would sign joint documents, but did not disclose which ones.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan talks with people during a pre-election walk through the streets of Yerevan.
Despite the vagueness of the visit, the U.S. interests in Armenia are quite substantive. One of the directions is nuclear energy. In February, American Vice President Jay D. Vance visited the republic, and following the visit, the parties signed an agreement on cooperation in the field of peaceful atom. At the same time, the only nuclear power plant in the country so far, Metsamorskaya, is operated jointly with Rosatom.
Another area is logistics. We are talking about the so-called "Trump Route", which is supposed to connect Armenia with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Today, Yerevan is increasingly talking about restoring this transport link without Moscow's participation.
Metsamor NPP
Russia has previously expressed concern about the activity of Western leaders in Armenia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that they were trying to draw Yerevan into the anti-Russian camp in order to make Moscow "as painful as possible."
At the same time, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov drew attention to Rubio's visit to Yerevan. He expressed hope that the Armenian side would not switch to anti-Russian rhetoric. "The other day, we heard statements from both Pashinyan and the Foreign Minister that Armenia would not engage in anti-Russian rhetoric. We have heard these statements," he reminded reporters.
Between the EU and the EAEU
The contradictions in Armenia's foreign policy will be most acute at the EAEU summit, which will be held on May 27-28 in Kazakhstan. Pashinyan does not plan to participate in it. Instead, Armenia will be represented by Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan. He will probably have to answer questions about Yerevan's future plans. The Russian side has already made it clear that the topic of Armenia's European course will be raised at the meeting.
"No one is pushing Armenia out of the EAEU, they just said themselves that they want to join the EU. We need to decide. The sooner this is done, the better it will be for everyone," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk said.
President of the European Council Antonio Costa, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen at a press conference on the sidelines of the first Armenia-EU summit at the Presidential Palace in Yerevan. May 5, 2026
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, also pointed out the contradiction in Pashinyan's position: the Armenian prime minister is leading the country towards the EU, but at the same time trying to preserve the benefits of participation in the EAEU and cooperation with Russia.
Moreover, today Armenia remains one of the main beneficiaries of participation in the Eurasian union. In ten years in the union, the country's GDP has increased 2.5 times. In addition, the republic receives Russian energy resources at discounted prices: gas costs it $177.5 per 1,000 cubic meters, while European prices exceed $600 per 1,000 cubic meters.
"The situation when Armenian goods actually have duty—free access to the EAEU domestic market is a disadvantage for our budgets. When, using the allied status, Armenia receives energy at lower prices, this is also a disadvantage for us. And if Armenia has decided to move towards a military-political bloc hostile to Russia, which the EU is becoming today, then, of course, this situation does not satisfy us," Overchuk emphasized.
Pashinyan himself said earlier that if Armenia ever decides to withdraw from the EAEU, it will happen gradually and without drastic steps. According to him, a referendum will not be required for this.
However, the idea of breaking with Russia does not look popular inside the country. Two years ago, 58.1% of Gallup respondents opposed such a move. For Pashinyan, such rhetoric on the eve of the elections may become risky: his opponents, on the contrary, advocate more friendly and pragmatic relations with Moscow. At the same time, about a third of the voters in Armenia remain undecided — it is their votes that can decide the outcome of the elections.
What is the United States trying to achieve
According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the US interest in Armenia is not only related to Pashinyan's support before the elections. We are talking about Washington's broader foothold in the South Caucasus.
— The United States is actively competing with both the EU and the UK here. Their presence in Armenia allows them, on the one hand, to control the situation around Iran, and on the other, to prevent Russia from strengthening and intercepting major projects," explained Natalia Yeremina, a political scientist and professor at St. Petersburg State University.
According to her, the emphasis is on ensuring the permanent presence of American interests in the region. Armenia was chosen quite well, because the country has access to Central Asia, the Middle East, the Black Sea region and further into the European space.
Kamran Hasanov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, also believes that the initiative in relations with Armenia now largely comes from the United States. In his opinion, Washington fears that after the elections in Yerevan, supporters of more pragmatic relations with Moscow may strengthen. This, in turn, may weaken the influence of the United States in Armenia.
— Some practical results may not be required from Rubio's meeting in Yerevan. The very fact of the meeting is important here. The United States will express its support to Pashinyan in order to consolidate its priority influence in Armenia after the elections. And the Armenian prime minister wants to strengthen his position inside the country through the support of the United States and the EU. To this end, the summit of the ENP (European Political Community) was held in Yerevan. — Izvestia), — Hasanov noted.
At the same time, the advantages of such cooperation are not fully understood for Armenia itself. As Eremina points out, the population is being offered an image of the future, which so far looks rather uncertain: it is convenient to build election promises on it, but the practical consequences of such a reversal are not fully understood.
The expert draws attention to the fact that the most noticeable economic growth of Armenia in recent years has been associated with its participation in the EAEU. The prospects for stable development for the republic also remain largely tied to the Eurasian market.
— In these conditions, Armenia needs to think three times, measure seven times before cutting it off once. Choosing in favor of the United States and the EU in the current situation can lead to an economic downturn and a deterioration of the situation. And it will definitely not be possible to combine simultaneous membership with the EAEU. Therefore, the issue is serious, and it will have to be resolved sooner or later," Eremina concluded.
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