Leave to stay: why Rubio is flying to Sweden
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will fly to Sweden to reassure Europeans about the United States' plans to withdraw American troops from the EU. The European Union cannot figure out whether Washington is leaving in the end or not, and they demand clarity from the head of the State Department on this issue. From Helsingborg, an American diplomat immediately flies to India to find a counterweight to contain China. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Meeting of the Allies
"Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Helsingborg, Sweden, on May 22 to attend a meeting of NATO foreign ministers, where he will discuss the need for increased defense investment and broader burden—sharing within the alliance," the US State Department said on its website.
Rubio is scheduled to hold bilateral meetings with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Sweden, which joined the North Atlantic Alliance in 2024, is hosting a NATO event at the level of foreign ministers for the first time. The head of the State Department, who is known for his ability to smooth out contradictions in relations with European allies, will have to talk about uncomfortable topics for EU countries.
Rubio has already embarked on several similar missions this year, including the Munich Security Conference, which took place in February. He recently traveled to Italy, where he met with government officials, as well as the pope, whom US President Donald Trump had previously criticized for the pontiff's position on the war in Iran.
Now we will talk about the fate of the American contingent in Europe, as well as a more equitable distribution of defense spending in the bloc, from the point of view of the current US administration.
Reassure Europe
The head of the State Department will have to assure Washington's European allies that the United States is not going to leave Europe, despite Donald Trump's intention to reduce the number of American military personnel in Germany by 5,000, as well as the abandonment of plans to deploy a battalion with land-based Tomahawk missiles in the country.
However, it is not only Germany that is facing changes. Washington also canceled the transfer of an armored brigade of over 4,000 troops to Poland as part of the planned rotation.
In addition, the fate of the 2nd Armored Brigade, known as the "Black Jack Brigade," remains unclear.
Speaking at a briefing recently, US Vice President Jay Dee Vance said that the United States was not reducing its contingent in Poland at all, it was only a matter of delaying rotation.
"This happens sometimes," he explained, adding that the Trump administration is focused on promoting "European independence and sovereignty."
Vance's words contradict statements by the American media, which report that units of the Black Jack Brigade already deployed to Poland will have to return to their military base in Texas.
The supreme Commander of NATO forces in Europe, General Alexus Grinkevich, also tried to reassure the alliance's allies. According to him, there is no talk of reducing the military contingent yet, but over time, we should expect the redeployment of American troops as the allies "increase their potential."
Commander-in-Chief of the NATO Joint Armed Forces in Europe, General Alexus Grinkevich
Pentagon chief spokesman Sean Parnell later said it was a "temporary delay" in the deployment of U.S. troops to Poland, which he called an "exemplary U.S. ally." The pause was the result of Washington reducing the number of brigade combat teams deployed in Europe from four to three, he noted, stressing that the Pentagon has yet to decide which troops to deploy where.
EU countries, according to the Financial Times, citing European diplomats, are annoyed that "the Trump administration regularly fails to clarify in a timely manner which parts of the US military presence in the region will be withdrawn and when." Rubio is expected to be asked for clarification on this issue at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers.
In addition, the head of the State Department will meet with colleagues from Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden as part of the Arctic Seven to discuss common economic and security interests in the Arctic and strengthen positions in the Far North. In particular, he will urge the parties to strengthen the alliance's positions in this zone in order to prevent the strengthening of Russia and China.
Friend versus China
From Europe, the Secretary of State will travel to India, where he will visit Calcutta, Agra, Jaipur and New Delhi from May 23 to 26. Rubio plans to discuss energy security, trade, and defense cooperation with local authorities.
According to Reuters, the choice of such a route is explained by the fact that under Donald Trump, Washington's relations with both NATO and New Delhi have seriously shaken. "The US president has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the alliance and imposed high duties on Indian goods," the agency reports.
In addition, after Trump's visit to Beijing, the United States is interested in establishing ties with those states that are important for containing China. India will host a meeting of the foreign ministers of the QUAD Defense Forum member countries, which in addition to the United States also includes India, Japan and Australia.
Earlier, a unification summit was planned to be held in New Delhi, but this could not be done due to the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. However, the American authorities do not give up hope of making this site a block that can restrain China's expansion in the Asia-Pacific region.
Ahead of Marco Rubio's tour, U.S. Ambassador to India Sergio Gore said that the Donald Trump administration wants to increase energy exports to India.
"New Delhi favors diversification, which means purchasing more American energy resources," the head of the American diplomatic mission explained.
He added that Trump may visit India again. His last visit to the country was in 2020. "The main thing we want to show is how important these relations are for both sides. Rubio's trip is a testament to the interest, as well as the partnership that we have and that we want to develop," Gore explained.
He did not disclose details of the upcoming visit, but noted that it would focus on technology exchange and military sales growth between the United States and India.
What do the experts think
Judging by the statements of the Americans, it will primarily be about energy security, trade and defense cooperation, Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the Center for the Indian Ocean Region of the IMEMO RAS, said in an interview with Izvestia. Issues of interaction within the QUAD will also be discussed.
— The United States cooperates with India on a number of projects in the military sphere, but it is still difficult to say what technologies and sales in the military sphere the American ambassador was talking about, — the expert noted.
At the same time, according to the political scientist, New Delhi is not ready to help Washington restrain Beijing's expansion into the Asia-Pacific region, since Indian military ambitions at the current stage do not extend beyond the Strait of Malacca.
Given the current balance of power, the EU countries as a whole need the United States more than America needs them. Washington assumes that they can make foreign policy decisions without agreeing and especially without informing their European partners, Natalia Eremina, professor of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, said in an interview with Izvestia.
— Moreover, the United States requires European partners to fulfill all requirements. The contingent is decreasing quite slightly, but even this slight reduction causes a storm of discussions and emotions among their European partners. Since the general line of the United States on this issue does not change, attempts to force the United States to answer some tough questions will certainly not succeed, the political scientist is sure.
Marco Rubio is likely to say in a conciliatory tone that the current situation is a temporary phenomenon, she admitted. But this does not mean that the United States will abandon its tasks.
"And the main task is to shift the entire burden of material and financial responsibility, as well as all risks, to other partners and ensure the flow of permanent money to the States and the security of the United States itself," the specialist said.
The analyst emphasized that the EU has a clear anti-Russian position. Therefore, for him, even a minor withdrawal of the contingent from Europe is a very bad signal from the point of view of the implementation of the plans set, which Brussels is not ready to abandon.
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