How the Iranian conflict highlighted the NATO crisis. Analysis
The meeting of NATO foreign ministers, which is taking place on May 21-22 in Sweden, is dedicated to the US plans for a gradual withdrawal from the European security system. Relations between the United States and Europe within the alliance are approaching confrontation, and the conflict in Iran, unleashed by the United States and Israel, became the catalyst for the "divorce". Why unity within NATO is weakening and how the Iranian war contributed to it — in the analysis of Izvestia.
Goal imbalance
• The United States is shifting its focus to the Indo-Pacific region, where its main rival is China, which has already equaled the United States in the status of one of the most powerful powers. Washington's actions in Venezuela and Iran, as well as threats against Cuba, are aimed at weakening China and cutting it off from sources of cheap raw materials, and US activity in the Asia-Pacific region is aimed at ensuring that the countries surrounding China are loyal to the United States. For Europe, the main opponent is Russia, which the United States treats more pragmatically, including because it seeks to stop the rapprochement between Russia and China.
• This line is already splitting priorities within NATO, as the alliance has lost a common enemy to unite against. If earlier this function was performed by the USSR, now the attempt to make China a common enemy is not supported by the European Union, for which, due to geopolitics (and geography) Russia seems to be a more important opponent. Another factor in the imbalance is Turkey, which, although a member of NATO, pursues an independent regional policy, and its interests may be directly opposed to the goals of other members of the alliance. In particular, Ankara maintains trade relations with Russia and is an ally of Iran.
• Another divisive factor was the difference in the vulnerability of countries to geopolitical shocks. If the United States was not badly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, then the impact on European countries turned out to be significant: not only because of the disruption in energy supplies, but also because of the instability of the maritime trade route as a whole. Thus, the conflict unleashed by the United States and Israel in Iran created serious problems for the alliance's allies and undermined unity not only within NATO, but also within the EU: Iran, unlike Russia, was not perceived as a direct threat in the bloc, and attitudes towards Israel in European countries worsened due to the war in Gaza and violations. international law from Tel Aviv.
Unpreparedness for conflict
• The war in Iran is depleting NATO's arsenal. The United States is reducing the resources that would be available to alliance members in the event of war or invasion, and this is a fundamental change in the structure of NATO's defense. Washington calls the restriction on the supply of military equipment and the transfer of troops to Europe a redistribution of resources in order to ensure the security of the United States. If the Iranian conflict continues for months, the EU risks facing a shortage of weapons not only for Ukraine, but also to ensure its own security. NATO requires European arms suppliers to increase investments in production, without waiting for government orders, primarily in air defense systems and long-range missiles. The EU countries' contribution to the alliance's armament will also appease the United States and fulfill US President Donald Trump's demand for an increase in defense spending by the European Union. The difference in contributions to the common defense is one of the reasons for disagreements within NATO.
• Despite its dissatisfaction with the actions of the United States, the European Union depends on American intelligence, as well as on cloud technologies, software and digital platforms supplied by the United States. The course towards "technological sovereignty" taken by the European Union is difficult to implement, since Europe does not have the capital and scale to compete with American software. Another problem for the EU is its dependence on Chinese supplies of equipment and telecom infrastructure, as well as on Chinese production chains, to which the union has no alternative. In addition, a new type of war is based on the use of unmanned technologies, and NATO countries will also not be able to provide them without Chinese components.
Effectiveness of regional unions
• The role of global alliances such as NATO and the United Nations is declining in the world, as the sites of such blocs become a place of clash of national interests of different countries. At the same time, temporary unions and regional coalitions are becoming increasingly important. Even the European Union uses such a tool as the "coalition of the willing", which unites the five most powerful locomotive countries in the economy and foreign policy of the bloc, to make important decisions where it is not always possible to achieve unanimity. Recently, there has also been a desire in the EU to unite the countries of Scandinavia and the Baltic States along regional lines, mainly regarding initiatives for joint defense and operations in the Baltic Sea, which is considered "internal" in the EU.
• The United States has also embarked on minilateralism, that is, the participation of a small group of countries in solving specific international issues. At the same time, the United States relies on several such alliances at once to balance forces to ensure its interests in the Indo-Pacific region: the strategic dialogue between Australia, India, the United States and Japan (QUAD), the military-political bloc of Australia, Great Britain and the United States (AUKUS) and the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue of the United States, Australia and Japan. In fact, this demonstrates the transition from a system of global deterrence to solving individual tasks in the international field in the interests of specific States. In addition, in such alliances, it is easier for the parties to take into account each other's interests and develop a unified line of action.
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