The political scientist spoke about possible scenarios of US policy towards Cuba.

In the coming years, the United States may increase its attention to Cuba, considering the island as one of the key elements of its foreign policy strategy in Latin America. Political scientist and publicist Georgy Dibrov told Izvestia on May 21.

According to him, Washington may seek to restore its lost influence in the region by using political, diplomatic and economic instruments of pressure. In this logic, Cuba is seen as a relatively limited but symbolically significant object of influence in the Caribbean.

"In recent years, American political rhetoric has periodically raised issues of tightening policy towards Cuba, but the development of the situation will depend on many factors, including the internal situation in the United States and the international situation," the expert explained.

In his opinion, the potential escalation in the region may be expressed primarily in increased economic pressure, diplomatic isolation and attempts to influence the internal political processes on the island. At the same time, the expert emphasizes that such scenarios remain hypothetical and depend on the decisions of the American leadership.

Separately, Dibrov pointed out that the international context, including US relations with Russia and China, as well as other foreign policy crises, may influence Washington's priorities and the degree of its involvement in the Caribbean.

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The political scientist also believes that a sharp escalation is unlikely in the short term, but the situation may change if domestic political competition in the United States intensifies, including ahead of the US congressional elections.

"Against the background of the positive results of the negotiations in China in the coming month, the head of the White House, Donald Trump, is not ready to escalate the situation, but his position will change depending on the domestic political situation before the US congressional elections," the expert concluded.

On May 20, Trump said that despite the accusations against the former Cuban president, Washington would not escalate the situation in relations with the island nation. He also called the indictment of Raul Castro a very important moment not only for Americans of Cuban descent, but also for anyone who wants to return to Cuba to their relatives.

Prior to that, The New York Times reported on May 16 that the American authorities were considering putting pressure on Castro, including through criminal prosecution and subsequent kidnapping, similar to former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.