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Mushroom on the horizon: Russia has threatened the Baltic States with retaliation for helping Ukraine
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service has accused Latvia of deploying Ukrainian UAV operators on its territory who are preparing strikes against Russia. This happened against the background of Russian and Belarusian nuclear exercises. Experts say that the threat of escalation in the region is increasing. Izvestia investigated the situation.
There will be retribution
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has issued an extremely harsh statement. Firstly, for the first time, a Russian official has directly accused the Baltic states of providing Ukraine with air corridors for the passage of drones.
Secondly, it is reported that the region is ready to go even further. According to the SVR, the Baltics are going not just to open their skies, but to deploy Ukrainian UAV operators on their territory. "Such tactics will significantly reduce the time of approach to targets and increase the effectiveness of terrorist attacks," the publication says.
It is emphasized that the Kiev authorities convinced Latvia that the Russian forces would not be able to determine the exact location of the drone launch. "Military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine's unmanned systems have already been sent to the republic. They are stationed at the military bases of Adazi, Celia, Lielvard, Daugavpils and Jekabpils," the SVR reports.
At the same time, the ministry claims that in fact, modern reconnaissance tools and subsequent analysis of the drone debris will make it possible to accurately determine the launch site. "It would be useful to remind you that the coordinates of the decision—making centers on Latvian territory are well known, and the country's membership in NATO will not protect terrorist accomplices from just retribution," the statement said.
From sea to sky
The Baltic states have become one of the most ardent supporters of Ukraine since the start of the CBO. In particular, all three republics provided significant financial assistance to Kiev. According to published statistics, Latvia and Lithuania have transferred about €1 billion each in four years, Estonia has spent €805 million.
Also, all the republics have sent Kiev a large amount of weapons. According to open data, Riga, Vilnius and Tallinn have sent millions of ammunition, thousands of small arms, armored vehicles, air defense systems, communications equipment and much more. Recently, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that factories in Latvia and Lithuania have established production of drones, which will later be shipped to Ukraine.
In addition, the Baltic countries have become one of Kiev's main lobbyists in the European and international arena. They have repeatedly called for Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO and are voting for all new aid packages to Kiev. "We must support Ukraine, no matter what the cost," Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said in this regard. And his Latvian colleague Edgar Rinkevich said that "Russia must be defeated."
At the same time, the region is trying to strengthen its own armed forces. Lithuania and Estonia boasted at the end of last year that they had brought the defense budget to 5% of GDP, as demanded by US President Donald Trump from NATO countries. Latvia plans to reach this level next year. New weapons are being purchased, more and more army exercises are being conducted, and the number of armed forces is increasing (for example, Lithuania and Latvia have returned to military service).
At the same time, they are clearly afraid of a direct clash with Russia in the region. Throughout their time, the Baltic countries have made, in fact, one attempt to seriously counteract Russia, when they tried to stop the ships of the so-called shadow fleet of the Russian Federation. In particular, in April last year, a tanker flying the flag of Djibouti was detained in Estonia, but after a two-week inspection, the vessel was released. In parallel, similar episodes occurred in Sweden, Finland and other countries in the region.
It all ended in May last year, when Estonia tried to slow down another tanker under the flag of Gabon. Russia then lifted off a Su-35 fighter jet, which escorted the watercraft to its destination. Some vessels also began escorting ships of the Russian Navy.
Retirement with drones
The commander of the Estonian Navy, Ivo Vark, reported after the incident that Tallinn was no longer going to fight the "shadow fleet" because it could lead to an escalation with Russia. According to him, the intervention will only be in case of an immediate threat to the underwater infrastructure or oil spills.
This spring, the drone issue has escalated. Ukraine has launched a series of attacks on the Leningrad region, with several UAVs crashing in the Baltic countries. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on this occasion that Kiev could use EU countries "in the dark." On May 7, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that a group of drones in the Latvian sky was accompanied by four fighter jets, meaning, in fact, they announced a targeted attack.
Against this background, Russia began to talk about the fact that it would be necessary to strike back at the Baltic States. In this regard, Riga, Vilnius and Tallinn condemned Kiev's actions for the first time in four years, demanding that drone flights be excluded in the future. A political crisis broke out in Latvia, during which the Minister of Defense lost his post, and then the pro-Ukrainian coalition government completely collapsed.
The current statement by the SVR can probably be considered another warning to the Balts. Interestingly, the reaction to it was almost instantaneous. Latvian President Edgar Rinkevich said that the republic actually does not allow anyone to use its airspace and territory for strikes. And in Estonia, they reported on the first downing of a Ukrainian UAV in the region.
The confrontation is close
The threat of direct escalation between Russia and the Baltic NATO countries is becoming more and more real, warns Kirill Koktysh, Professor at MGIMO, Doctor of Political Sciences.
— The question arises not about shooting down the UAV, but about hitting the launch sites. This means that we are getting close enough to a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. I think they just don't leave us any other reality. The whole question now is whether the Balts and those behind them will wake up to common sense, and whether these people will be able to realize the consequences of their actions," he explains.
In turn, Nikolai Mezhevich, president of the Russian Association of Baltic Studies, believes that the SVR statement hit the nail on the head.
— The President of Latvia and the head of the country's Foreign Ministry reacted almost immediately to the publication of Russian intelligence. The fact is that the military and political power of the parties simply cannot be compared. In the event of any conflict, Russia's response will be the last for them, these republics will simply cease to exist, the expert assures.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
