The expert admitted a decrease in oil prices after the end of the geopolitical shock

Oil prices are rising amid geopolitical tensions, but current levels should not be considered as a stable basis for long-term planning. Ilya Rusyaev, a business consultant and founder of the Rusyaev Club business community, told Izvestia on May 18.

According to him, Brent quotes are currently holding around $109 per barrel against the background of the US and Israeli military operation against Iran. The expert noted that we are talking about a classic "military premium", which has been repeatedly observed on the market and, as a rule, is temporary.

"Historically, such a surcharge leaves the market within two to six months after de–escalation, so it is impractical to include the current peak values in the annual budget," Rusyaev explained.

He added that the basic guidelines for business planning remain significantly lower than current values. According to him, the price of Urals crude oil may average $ 50-55 per barrel, Brent — $ 60-65. At the same time, in the updated macro forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the Urals benchmark is set at $59 per barrel, which the expert considers a "reasonable starting point" for financial models.

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Rusyaev noted that the pressure on oil prices is formed by several fundamental factors at once. Among them is a structural supply surplus exceeding 3 million barrels per day, as well as a slowdown in demand growth from China and India. An additional factor was OPEC+'s decision in April to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day.

"Together, this forms a stable fundamental overhang over the market, which will not disappear even after the reduction of geopolitical tensions," the expert emphasized.

According to him, the current price situation can be used by exporters as a window for hedging over the horizon of three to six months. At the same time, fuel importers and logistics companies should focus on the average Brent price in the range of $65-75 when planning financial models, taking into account increased volatility.

Separately, the expert drew attention to the impact of oil prices on the Russian economy. When the Urals price is above $59 per barrel, additional oil and gas budget revenues are generated, which supports the ruble. However, if quotes fall below this level, the effect may reverse and increase pressure on the national currency.

On May 13, the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated a deterioration in the forecast for global oil production in 2026. The situation, as noted, is developing due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Due to the military events in the region, the global supply of raw materials may decrease by 8 million barrels per day this month.