It came from the sky: the Latvian government resigned

Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silin announced her resignation on May 14. The entire Cabinet of Ministers stops working with her. The decision was the culmination of a political crisis within the ruling coalition that erupted amid disputes over the country's security and incidents involving Ukrainian drones. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

They chose the crisis

Evika Silin announced her resignation during a specially convened press conference in Riga. After that, the government is officially considered dissolved. At the same time, in her statement, the prime minister stressed that she "resigns, but does not give up political activity."

"At the moment, political envy and narrow party interests have taken over responsibility. Seeing a strong candidate for the post of defense minister, the political windbags chose a crisis — a government crisis. That is why I am announcing my resignation. This is not an easy decision, but in this situation it is the right one," the LSM portal quotes her as saying.

Evika Silina became the head of the government in September 2023. Her cabinet was formed by a coalition of the parties "New Unity", "Union of Greens and Peasants" and "Progressives". It was one of the most heterogeneous coalitions: center-right and center-left forces united around issues of Euro-Atlantic integration and support for Ukraine.

The process of government collapse began a little earlier, after the resignation of Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds from the Progressive Party. The reason for this was a series of incidents involving Ukrainian drones that crossed Latvian airspace last week. In response, Evika Silina demanded political responsibility and wrote that the head of the defense department had lost the trust of both the Prime Minister and the entire society. In this regard, she called for his resignation, which she eventually achieved. She suggested Colonel Raivis Melnis, who works in the office of the Latvian Prime Minister as an adviser on military cooperation, to replace him.

In response, Andris Sprouds' party refused to support the prime minister, and the coalition lost its parliamentary majority. After that, Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics said that the country could not afford political uncertainty and instability, stressing that at a meeting with parliamentary factions on Friday he hoped to receive concrete proposals and ideas for the future.

Former President Vaira Vike-Freiberga has already responded to the incident: "A government at odds with each other undermines its own ability to act. And we can't afford that."

Friendly fire

The main reason for his resignation was the coalition conflict, which coincided with an increase in public security concerns.

In March of this year, Ukraine began using the Baltic Corridor to launch UAV attacks on Russia's oil export hubs in the Leningrad Region. The Baltic states, as well as Finland, were under friendly fire from Ukraine. At first, the reaction to the Ukrainian drone strikes was relatively calm, but two events in early May changed everything. First, two drones flew into Finnish airspace, and the Finns took F/A-18 Hornet fighters into the air to escort them. Then, on the night of May 7, two UAVs fell on Latvian territory at once. One of them got into an empty tank at the East-West Transit oil facility in Rezekne, which led to a fire and damage to four more tanks. The second one presumably fell on the railway tracks.

Against the background of these incidents, a high-risk regime was declared in the Balva, Ludza and Rezekne regions of Latvia. The country's defense minister then said that the drones that had flown in were probably aimed by Ukraine at certain facilities in Russia. He explained their deviation from the course by the work of Russian electronic warfare systems.

The fall of these drones caused sharp criticism from the public — residents of Latvia had questions about the air defense system and the actions of the Ministry of Defense.

Thus, the resignation of the Minister of Defense was supposed to demonstrate the rigidity of Evika Silini, but it had the opposite effect.

On the background of the elections

It is important to note that the current political crisis in Latvia is taking place at the moment of preparation for the parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for October 2026. The resignation of Evika Silini marks the beginning of a period of political uncertainty.

Now the key role passes to the country's president Edgars Rinkevics, who must consult with the parliamentary parties and determine whether it is possible to form a new coalition. However, it will be difficult to do this due to the conflict between former partners.

Coalition governments are common in the country as a whole due to the fact that, as a rule, no party gets an absolute majority in parliament. This means that they have to form alliances. However, such coalitions can be fragile, especially when there are disagreements on key ministries, the budget, or other fundamental issues of state development.

Thus, there are several possible scenarios: a reorganized coalition led by a new prime minister; a minority government unofficially supported by other parties; an interim administration; and early parliamentary elections.

However, the early voting option does not seem to be the main one. Politicians may try to avoid political confrontation. However, in case of failure of the coalition negotiations, early elections should not be ruled out.

Support for Ukraine

Latvia is one of the most active supporters of Ukraine within the framework of NATO and the EU. The country provides military assistance, humanitarian and financial support.

Experts are confident that regardless of how the political crisis in Latvia ends, support for Ukraine will continue due to the fact that it enjoys a political consensus among the majority of the country's main parties. At the same time, a period of political uncertainty may complicate decision-making regarding defense, budget, etc.