The conflict in the Middle East is making Europe dependent on gas from the United States. What you need to know

The EU's hopes that expanding the number of energy suppliers would ensure energy stability for the bloc have not materialized. The conflict in the Middle East has led to an increase in gas supplies from the United States and Russia, and by 2028 the EU's dependence on American LNG could reach 80%. How the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz destroyed the illusion of successful diversification of gas supplies to Europe and what Brussels is doing to reduce dependence on energy imports — in the Izvestia article.

American gas instead of Russian

• By trying to avoid dependence on Russian gas, Europe risks becoming a hostage to American supplies, which creates new problems given the complex relations between Brussels and Washington. According to a report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), as early as 2026, the share of American liquefied natural gas (LNG) in European imports may exceed two-thirds of all supplies.

• Currently, Norway is the leading supplier of gas to Europe — the country provided 55% of pipeline gas supplies to the EU in the first quarter of 2026 and covers 30% of the union's gas import needs as a whole. Algeria (20%) and Russia (12%) took the second and third places in terms of trunk supplies — imports of Russian pipeline gas through Turkey to Europe have been growing for the second year in a row. At the same time, the European Union intends to completely abandon Russian gas by 2027.

How Europe is facing the energy crisis and who it will affect. Analysis

• U.S. gas plays a leading role in the European LNG market, and its share is growing. This is due not only to the EU's plans to diversify supplies, but also to pressure from the United States: in 2025, as part of a trade deal, the European Union committed to spend $750 billion on American energy in exchange for lower duties on European goods.

The calculation for LNG was not justified

• The European Union explained its intention to abandon Russian gas after the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict in 2022 not only by sanctions against Russia, but also by the need to diversify supplies. That is why pipeline gas from Russia began to be replaced by supplies of liquefied natural gas: from 2021 to 2025, the share of LNG in European energy imports more than doubled from 20% to 45%, while pipeline gas imports fell by 41%.

• The European Union has become the world's largest importer of LNG, but as the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have shown, liquefied natural gas is even more susceptible to geopolitical risks than pipeline gas. European countries, cut off from Qatari gas as a result of the blockade of the strait, had to increase purchases of more expensive American LNG, as well as Russian fuel. Russia remained the second largest LNG supplier to the EU: in the first quarter of 2026, shipments to Europe via Yamal LNG reached record levels for the entire period since the terminal was launched in 2017 and increased by 17.2% compared to the same period in 2025. The main shipments went to the Belgian port of Zeebrugge, French Montoir and Dunkirk, Spanish Bilbao and Dutch Rotterdam.

"Europe will face an economic catastrophe if we don't change our approach to resources"

Deputy Speaker of the Slovak Parliament Tibor Gaspar - on the supply of raw materials, the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine and the preservation of the memory of the Great Patriotic War

• The risk for Europe was not only the cessation of LNG supplies from Qatar, but also the competition for American LNG with Asian markets. This is due to the record increase in prices at which the EU is forced to purchase fuel for its gas storage facilities. The European Union also has to purchase Russian gas at an increased price, since by previous decisions Brussels has limited the possibility of concluding long-term contracts with Russia and is forced to focus on current market prices. As of May 13, the EU's gas storage facilities were 36% full, which is below the level of 2022. By November 1, the occupancy rate of European gas storage facilities should reach 80%.

Reducing the need for gas

• The European Union intends to reduce dependence on fossil fuels by 2030. The IEEFA study predicts that from 2025 to 2030, gas consumption in the EU will decrease by 14%, while demand for LNG will fall by 23%. Researchers explain the decrease in demand for imported energy carriers by increasing energy efficiency and accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources. Already, such sources provide the majority of the EU's total energy production — 48%. Nuclear energy is in second place (28%), and solid fuels are in third (15%).

• Despite the optimism of researchers, the EU is already lagging behind the indicators for programs designed to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels in the European Union. In 2025, the unit exceeded the target by 5% under the Fit for 55 program, designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 55% by 2030. Europe also exceeded the 2025 target by 9% as part of the REPowerEU program, a strategy to reduce dependence on Russian energy resources.

• The European Union has managed to reduce gas consumption by 20% after 2022. In residential buildings, due to the maintenance of lower temperatures, insulation of houses and the introduction of heat pumps, gas needs have decreased by 8%, but the prospects for further reduction in energy consumption are limited. In the European industry, the figures are much more significant: gas consumption has decreased by 26%, but this result is not due to the energy efficiency of enterprises, but to the closure of factories, mainly in the chemical and oil refining sectors of the economy.