Russian oil companies do not always benefit from a spike in prices. What does this mean for an investor

The main thing in the material:

— Rising oil prices amid the conflict over Iran have increased Russia's oil and gas revenues, but the budget has not yet been able to fully compensate for the weak start to the year.

— A significant part of the oil windfall goes to the state through mineral extraction tax, mineral extraction tax and dividends from state-owned companies. In April, income from mineral extraction taxes increased to 771 billion rubles.

— High oil prices simultaneously increase pressure on the global economy, accelerate inflation and may reduce demand for raw materials in the future.

— It is more important for investors to look not at the price of Brent, but at the company's cash flow, debt burden, predictability of dividends and the ability of the business to operate in the face of sanctions and changing rules of the game.

The surge in oil prices against the background of the conflict over Iran has led to the fact that Russia has begun to receive more oil and gas revenues. However, this does not mean that the country automatically benefits from expensive raw materials — the real economy of the oil sector is much more complicated. Sanctions, taxes, and the ruble exchange rate stand between global quotes and the profits of oil companies. Izvestia investigated who turns out to be the main beneficiary of oil growth and how sustainable such a gain is for Russia and investors.

Indirect effect

In April, the oil and gas revenues of the federal budget amounted to 855.6 billion rubles. This is almost 40% higher than the March level, but more than 20% lower than a year ago. In January–April, receipts decreased by 38% year-on-year, to 2.3 trillion rubles. In other words, the increase in oil prices has partially offset the weak results at the beginning of the year, but it has not yet been possible to completely cover the decline in oil and gas revenues.

The final effect on the budget depends not so much on the value of Brent on the world market as on the price of Russian oil, the ruble-dollar exchange rate and the volume of exports. Therefore, the increase in global energy prices does not lead to a proportional increase in Russian budget revenues. For example, if the ruble strengthens, discounts on Urals increase, and logistics become more expensive, part of the effect of expensive oil on the budget is lost. In addition, rising prices do not immediately affect government revenues — exporters pay taxes with a delay.

The rising cost of raw materials increases the tax burden on oil companies. The fact is that taxes are tied to the cost of oil: the more expensive an export barrel is, the more companies pay to the budget through the mineral extraction tax and other withdrawal mechanisms. The mineral extraction tax is linked to the volume of production and the estimated price of oil. In April, the average Urals price was used to calculate taxes at $95 per barrel against $77 in March, about $45 in February and $41 in January. This means that expensive oil increases the revenue of companies, but at the same time payments to the state are also growing. At the same time, the budget continues to receive high oil revenues as long as companies maintain production (and it is affected, for example, by OPEC+ restrictions), even if their real export revenues are declining at the moment, for example due to expensive logistics. In April, revenues from the mineral extraction tax on oil more than doubled to 771 billion rubles against 327 billion rubles in March.

Oil companies also pay personal income tax, a tax on additional income. It is calculated based on the financial results of projects and allows the state to take part of the excess profits of oil companies. In April 2026, income tax receipts amounted to 260 billion rubles against 192 billion in March.

In addition, if a company with state participation makes a profit, the state earns not only as a tax collector, but also as a shareholder. The general rule for state—owned companies is to allocate at least 50% of adjusted net profit to dividends, but in practice this approach may vary depending on the priorities of the state. That is why the rise in world prices does not mean that all the additional profits remain with the oil companies — a significant part automatically goes to the state.

Another important mechanism for the redistribution of oil revenues is the damper, which is designed to keep fuel prices in the country at bay. When exports become significantly more profitable than domestic sales, oil companies are compensated for part of the difference in order to stimulate fuel supplies to the Russian market and prevent a sharp rise in prices. But when market conditions change, the mechanism can also work in the opposite direction — then part of the industry's revenue is transferred to the budget through a damper. In April, the companies received 207.5 billion rubles for the damper. In the previous two months, on the contrary, they had to pay into the treasury. Receipts and payments under the damper are taken into account in the structure of oil and gas budget revenues, along with taxes and other indicators.

Next, the budget rule is included. The cut-off price is currently set at $59 per barrel of Urals. This means that revenues above this base are directed not to current government expenditures, but to operations with reserves — to purchase currency and gold. The budget rule is a kind of stabilizer that helps reduce the impact of fluctuations in oil prices on the ruble exchange rate and inflation.

Therefore, expensive oil supports the budget, but the effect on the economy as a whole and on oil companies in particular is weaker. The final benefit depends on the ruble price of Russian oil, export volumes (which are affected by sanctions and attacks on infrastructure), taxes, and budget rules.

Expensive oil will hit through imports

There is another nuance that is often overlooked in optimistic forecasts. High oil prices are putting pressure on global growth — fuel, transportation, and industrial production are becoming more expensive. The global economy is slowing down, and with it, oil consumption is starting to decline.

In an April review, the International Energy Agency estimated that due to the conflict in the Middle East, global oil demand in 2026 could decrease by 80,000 barrels per day instead of the expected growth. In May, the forecast was revised — now the IEA allows for a reduction in consumption by 420 thousand barrels per day by the end of the year. At the same time, in the second quarter, the drop in demand may reach 2.45 million barrels per day.

This is especially sensitive for Russia, as the economy remains dependent on commodity exports. The country's gains from expensive oil may be short-term, as rising prices threaten to worsen global conditions and lower demand for raw materials. In addition, if energy, logistics, insurance, freight, and raw materials become more expensive worldwide, imported goods and components become more expensive. This increases inflationary pressure, which means that the Central Bank will have to maintain a high key rate, which affects consumption, lending, and investment activity. In other words, expensive oil can give the budget a break, but at the same time it hinders the easing of monetary policy.

What should an investor do?

The main mistake of investors is to focus only on the price of Brent and, based on this, draw conclusions about the state of the Russian economy or the prospects for oil stocks. In the Russian system, there is a long chain of redistribution between the global barrel and the investor's profit: the Urals discount, the ruble exchange rate, the mineral extraction tax, the tax code, the damper, and sanctions restrictions. In addition, in modern conditions, oil companies are spending more on insurance, transportation, infrastructure maintenance and production maintenance.

Therefore, expensive oil by itself does not mean that companies in the industry are becoming the main beneficiaries of the crisis — rising prices do not always lead to an increase in free cash flow and dividend payments. Rather, the high cost of raw materials is a reason to take a closer look at the entire system. In Russia, an increase in the price of a barrel primarily supports budget sustainability. The authorities can change the tax burden, the parameters of the damper, export regulations or requirements for the payment of dividends. Therefore, for a minority investor, the key indicator is how much of the oil margin eventually reaches the shareholder after all withdrawals and expenses.

Today, expensive oil alone is not enough to consider oil stocks attractive — the cost of energy resources is only one of the evaluation factors. Investors are increasingly looking at the debt burden, the size of capital expenditures, dependence on export logistics, dividend policy, and the ability of companies to remain resilient when the rules of the game change.

The theses contained in the text are not an investment recommendation, but the opinion of the editors.