"The Chinese no longer respect President Trump"

Trump will not have time to resolve the conflict with Iran before the midterm elections in November, Alexander Azadgan, an American political scientist, freelance editor and chief adviser to the Center for Geostrategic Studies, told Izvestia. In his opinion, the US president is still counting on a change of power in the republic, and Israel is ready to continue hostilities. Trump is unlikely to be able to achieve support from China, one of Iran's main trading partners, the analyst believes. And although Tehran has suffered great military and economic damage, it is winning diplomatically.

"China is determined to ensure stability in Iran"

— On May 13, US President Donald Trump arrived in China on an official visit, which was his first visit to the republic since 2017. Among the topics for discussion is the situation around Iran. Can we expect a breakthrough in the settlement after Trump's talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping?

— It is obvious that the priority of Donald Trump's visit to China is to convince the Chinese. But that's not going to happen. Moreover, the Chinese no longer respect President Trump. He is an immoral man with internal contradictions. And we're seeing what I call entropy, that is, a lack of order or predictability. In our country, state and non-state actors do not respond well to unpredictability. And he's completely unpredictable.

He positions himself by analogy with former US President Richard Nixon, who pursued a strategy of ambiguity. But he doesn't look like Nixon at all — he opened China to us and opened America to China, and he made this visit to China many years ago.

— Are you saying that Trump has nothing to really offer China?

— President Trump wants to make a deal. But the only thing he currently has in his arsenal is a proposal to reduce tariffs on Chinese products, which have suffered to some extent. This is necessary to create an appearance of order and structure, which has been lacking since he became president again. But I don't think the Chinese will buy it. They plan for a hundred years ahead, not five.

Trump's move is tactical, not strategic. China, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, is determined to ensure stability in Iran. It is one of the reliable allies. And they want to move forward with BRICS as never before.

— China is Iran's most important partner, and Beijing could potentially help the United States in resolving the conflict with Tehran. In return, will the United States make concessions on ending military and political support for Taiwan, as well as on trade issues?

— I think so. I have already said something about this. President Trump may well frame Taiwan. As for the forcible annexation of Taiwan to China, this is quite possible (the PRC, like Russia, considers Taiwan to be part of the PRC. — Ed.). He sets people up and does it out of his own pride. It must be understood that the fall of all empires occurs under the weight of their own arrogance. This has always been the case in history, whether it was Ancient Babylon, the Persian, Roman, Russian, or British Empires. And now the American Empire. Trump is trying to save her. That's the whole point. This is a civilizational and existential issue for the United States.

"What do you mean?"

— The petrodollar system is in danger (a mechanism that arose in the 1970s on the basis of an agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia, in which oil is denominated and sold exclusively in American dollars. — Ed.). We are entering a multipolar world order. This is exactly what Russia and China want. This is exactly the essence of BRICS. BRICS is primarily about multipolarity. It's inevitable.

Trade pressure: The United States expects to influence Iran through China

What Donald Trump has prepared for Xi Jinping by flying to Beijing

"There will be war again"

— What will the United States do in this situation?

— They are going to make sure that China, like Russia, does not support Iran's desire to have nuclear weapons. But the irony is that the Iranians now have an excuse for having it: they were attacked by two nuclear powers — the United States and Israel (the Jewish state does not officially recognize the presence of nuclear weapons. — Ed.). In the USA, the Symmington and Glenn amendments were adopted in the 1970s. According to them, the United States has no right to provide military assistance to any nuclear Power that has not joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). So we acted illegally and allocated hundreds of billions of dollars to Israel for bombing Iran for decades. Therefore, the Chinese and Russians will say: "You did it." We all know that Israel possesses nuclear weapons, but no one recognizes this.

— Israel often talks about the threat to military security from Iran. Is there an economic aspect to this?

— Because of this conflict, Iran and Russia are getting closer. Iran and China are getting closer, not only ideologically, but also in terms of trade. And these figures pose a threat to Israel's trade volume with both Russia and China.

Of course, the Iranian economy is in a deplorable state. But it has enormous potential both in terms of human resources and in all kinds of national resources imaginable. Not only traditional gas and oil, but also, for example, lithium. And rare earth metals are needed for modern industry — the production of electric vehicles, computers, and so on.

— The United States failed to change power in Iran, only killing a number of political and military leaders. Although the fighting between the United States, Israel and Iran has temporarily stopped, many Western media outlets write that Trump is ready to resume large-scale military operations. Have the US priorities shifted towards Iran?

— I don't think the priorities have changed. Everyone got the opportunity to rearm and review their strategy. Iranians, Israelis, United States, Chinese, Russians. There will be war again, there is no doubt about it. Unfortunately, the United States and Israel want to do to Iran what Israel has been doing to Lebanon and Syria all this time — to invade regularly.

Israelis even have their own racist term used to describe regular military campaigns against the Gaza Strip, "lawn mowing." Every two years, they entered Gaza and "mowed the lawn," killing many people and destroying infrastructure. Israel wants the same thing with Iran — to invade the country when it sees that Tehran is gaining strength.

If Trump wants to continue the war, which is quite possible, he can occupy three Iranian territories in the Persian Gulf, which the UAE considers its own — the islands of Greater and Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa. These are strategically important islands in the Persian Gulf. This is Iranian territory, but the Emirates claim it. The Iranians can let him do this, and then he will win his "little victory."

I don't think he will attack the islands of Kharq and Qeshm. The US will simply continue bombing the infrastructure if it resumes fighting. But the fact is that they don't know how the Iranians will react. And it is unknown what China will provide to the Iranians.

"Trump and Netanyahu's war against Iran was lost at the very beginning"

— What are the chances that the United States will manage to reach a comprehensive agreement with Iran and achieve concrete agreements before the midterm elections in November?

— It depends on the unity of the Iranian leadership. We don't know who is in power in Iran right now. We do not know for sure whether the new supreme leader, Mojtab Khamenei, is still alive. There is no evidence that he is alive. We also need to see who will take his place in Iran. There are rumors that the IRGC has carried out a coup in Iran…

— But how do you assess the chances?

— I would say that there is a 70% chance that the United States will not be able to achieve this. You must understand that when the American president has low ratings, waging wars and carrying out destruction sometimes works. For the first time, it doesn't work because people are in the midst of a great spiritual, political, geopolitical, and social awakening. But the chances of reaching an agreement, I would say, are 30% or less. Because the Iranians are winning diplomatically. Militarily, they have lost a lot. But diplomatically, they are winning.

The war between Trump and Netanyahu against Iran was lost at the very beginning, because it was a violation of international law. It was aggression. There is no evidence that Iran has any nuclear technology that could be used to create a bomb. They even contradicted themselves. From a moral point of view, this war was completely unjustified. It was aimed only at destroying the Iranian infrastructure.

— How important is it for Trump to reach an agreement with Iran in terms of raising the rating of the Republican Party?

— Not so much, because if you listen to his rhetoric, you will see that he is already declaring victory. He is already saying that "we have destroyed the army," and he says that he still hopes for regime change. But while they are playing this card, Iran is not going to take the United States seriously.

Paradoxically, this war is beneficial to Iran, even though its infrastructure has been shattered. Every oil-producing country is making a profit now. Therefore, the incentive for war is higher than the incentive for peace, if we talk about the economy. Not morally or spiritually, but economically. Iran, the Arab states, Russia, the United States... the United States, by the way, is one of the world's leading oil producing countries.

The only unpredictable factor is the elections in November. We do not have hyperinflation, but if the situation gets out of control, we may face an economic apocalypse, that is, hyperinflation. We already pay a lot for food, gasoline and everything else.

Even smart Republicans are supporters of MAGA (the "Make America Great Again" movement. — Ed.), such as journalists Tucker Carlson, Megan Kelly, former member of the House of Representatives Marjorie Taylor-Green, protested. This is a serious rebellion within the Republican Party and within the MAGA segment. It can completely change the dynamics of everything. Many moderate Republicans will work for the Democrats this year. And if the Democrats get congress, they can try to introduce articles of impeachment against Trump. He has a lot of skeletons in his closet related to Epstein's files. This story is by no means over. Russia, Iran, and China can use this against him to get rid of him if he harms their national interests.