Experts have warned of a slowdown in digital development due to lower investment
A slowdown in the growth of investments in the Russian IT and telecom sector may affect not only the industry itself, but also the speed of digitalization of the economy as a whole. Industry experts spoke about the reasons for the decline in investment activity and the prospects of the market. All the details are in the Izvestia article.
Why investments in IT and telecom are slowing down
According to Olga Popkova, managing partner of the Goldman and Po communications agency, the increase in investments to the level of 2020 amounted to 37.4% instead of the expected 46.7%, which indicates a noticeable slowdown in the investment cycle. According to her, this is not about a short-term deviation, but about the cumulative effect of several factors at once, the key of which remains the high cost of capital.
"The key constraint remains the high cost of capital. With double-digit interest rates, companies become significantly more cautious in making investment decisions, especially when it comes to projects with a long payback period. This is critical for the telecom industry: the construction of network infrastructure, data centers and equipment modernization require large investments, the return on which is formed over the horizon of many years. According to the operators' reports, in 2025, the largest companies as a whole reduced capital expenditures or slowed down their growth rates," the expert explained.
Another reason was the completion of the most active stage of import substitution. In 2022-2024, companies actively invested in the transition to domestic software and infrastructure solutions, but now this process has entered a more stable phase.
Additional pressure is exerted by the adjustment of government support measures, inspections of previously issued subsidies and a shortage of qualified specialists.
In addition, Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, noted that staff shortages have become one of the key constraints on further growth. According to him, companies are increasingly reallocating budgets in favor of employee retention, reducing costs for infrastructure development and launching new projects.
What consequences await the market
According to experts, a slowdown in investment in digital infrastructure can affect the pace of development of the entire economy. Popkova stressed that IT and telecom today play the same role as transport and energy infrastructure: their development directly affects the competitiveness of the country and the speed of the introduction of new technologies.
One of the most noticeable consequences may be a gradual increase in tariffs for communications and digital services. As Alexey Ravinsky, CEO of Zapusk Group, explained, with a decrease in investment volumes, companies invest less in infrastructure upgrades, which leads to the accumulation of technical debt. Over time, this may result in an increase in costs, which operators will compensate for by increasing the cost of services.
The expert also notes that additional pressure is created by the rising cost of equipment, logistical difficulties and rising salaries of IT specialists.
Market consolidation and new risks
Experts predict increased consolidation of the industry. It is becoming more difficult for small companies to compete in an environment of expensive loans and rising operating costs. Large players, on the contrary, benefit from scale, the ability to optimize processes more efficiently, and invest in automation.
At the same time, experts warn that the slowdown in the development of IT and telecom may affect the digitalization of other industries — industry, healthcare, education and public administration. Lack of investment can also slow down the adoption of artificial intelligence technologies, the Internet of Things, and the development of next-generation networks.
What will happen next
Experts believe that it is premature to talk about a long-term decline. According to the baseline scenario, investment activity will gradually recover in 2026-2027 as borrowing costs decrease. At the same time, the market is likely to shift from a large-scale growth strategy to a point-to-point investment model with an emphasis on efficiency and quick payback.
Among the key areas of development, analysts name cybersecurity, critical infrastructure, cloud services, automation, and artificial intelligence-based solutions.
Experts agree that the future dynamics of the market will largely depend on the macroeconomic situation and the preservation of measures to support strategically important digital projects.
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