The State Duma predicted the range of Brent oil prices

On May 12, State Duma deputy and member of the Committee on Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Alexey Govyrin (United Russia) told Izvestia about the current dynamics of the global oil market and key factors affecting prices.

According to him, the Brent grade started the week above $104 per barrel, having gained about 3% on Monday. On Tuesday, quotes rose to $107 amid the failure of the next round of negotiations on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. About 20 million barrels of oil per day traditionally pass through this route, which accounts for about a fifth of global consumption of liquid hydrocarbons. At the same time, transit remains significantly limited, and the shortage of supplies is estimated at about 100 million barrels per week.

"In the near future, the Brent market will be in a zone of increased volatility — in the range of $ 95-115 per barrel. While maintaining transit restrictions, the price, according to his estimates, can be kept above $ 100. However, diplomatic progress can quickly reduce quotes by $8-12, while a new escalation of the conflict, on the contrary, may lead to testing levels above $ 115," the parliamentarian explained.

Barrel sufficiency: oil is more expensive than $90 by the end of 2026 will close the budget gap

Why is it likely that the treasury will not be able to make a profit in the near future?

Separately, the deputy drew attention to the situation with the Russian Urals oil. According to him, by the beginning of May, the discount to Brent had expanded to about $24, and the cost in western ports was decreasing to about $80 per barrel. At the same time, the high level of world prices partially supports export revenues, but the expansion of the discount limits this effect.

He also noted that the reserves of oil and petroleum products in the United States continue to decline, and global buffer reserves are rapidly decreasing. This, he said, reduces the likelihood of a sharp drop in prices even in the event of partial stabilization of the geopolitical situation.

On the same day, Reuters reported that oil prices rose by almost 1% amid truce talks between the United States and Iran. Brent futures rose to $105.07 per barrel, WTI — to $99.06.