What should an investor keep an eye on this week

This week, the Russian market will focus on dividend events, corporate reporting and macro statistics. Investors are waiting for inflation data, which may affect expectations for further easing of the Central Bank's monetary policy. Bidders will also monitor the geopolitical situation and oil prices.

On May 11, the deadline for the purchase of Headhunter shares for dividends for 2025 (233 rubles per share) expires, said Alexander Dudnikov, an analyst at Cifra Broker. On the same day, the register of shareholders of Bank Saint Petersburg closes (26.23 rubles for ordinary and 0.22 rubles for preferred shares), Finam analysts added.

On Wednesday, Rusagro's board of Directors will consider the issue of dividends for 2025. Aeroflot will disclose its operating results for April, and Basis Group will publish its IFRS financial results for the first quarter. Sber will present its RAS financial statements for April. Also on this day, Rosstat will publish weekly data on the consumer price index.

May 14 is the last day to purchase shares of the EsEfAi financial holding company to receive dividends for 2025 (172 rubles per share, yield 16.9%). Rostelecom and IFC Zaymer will disclose their IFRS results for the first quarter. The annual general meeting of T-Technologies shareholders will be held to discuss the final dividends for 2025 (4.5 rubles per share is recommended, taking into account the split).

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The deadline for the purchase of Polyus shares for dividends (56.8 rubles per share) expires on Friday. Headhunter, Sovcombank and Bank Saint Petersburg will present their IFRS financial statements for the first quarter. Rosstat will also publish data on the consumer price index for April, a key indicator for assessing inflation expectations.

The RGBI government bond index, according to Alexander Dudnikov, an analyst at Digital Broker, is trying to find a foothold in the area of 119 points, from where it can develop a recovery in the direction of 120-121. The market was not impressed even by the first deflation of the year, not believing in a change in the cautious approach of the Central Bank to the normalization of PREP, explained Alexey Kovalev, head of debt market analysis at Finam.

In the summary of the key rate discussion, the Central Bank notes the stability of the ruble against the background of high export earnings, which contributes to a moderate strengthening of the national currency. The dollar exchange rate, according to analysts, will be 73-76 rubles, the euro — 86-89 rubles, the Chinese yuan — 10.8–11.2 rubles.

After a noticeable decline, the Moscow Exchange index is consolidating above the support level of 2,600 points, being in the technical oversold zone. In the absence of an escalation of geopolitical tensions, a rebound to the area of 2,700 points is possible. However, the formation of a stable recovery should not be expected yet: there are not enough drivers. If the confrontation intensifies, the index may break through 2,600 points and go to 2,500-2520 points.